Royal Oak 15400/15500 dial colors and rarity of blue dials

[karasus]

Blue dials command a premium in the current market because we assume that it is a the rarest and most exclusive. I wondered if this is true. I decided to look at the 15400ST since it was part of the blue dial premium and the production is discontinued, the fixed supply helps with current listings being more representative of probable production ratio.

When I look at the current listed 15400 of dial colors, the blue dial isn't the most rare of the 15400s. From some research and comparing the production dates least common to most common dial colors:

1. Grey (5 listed) - this was only a 1 year run before they discontinued the 15400.

2. White (13 listed) - this is different from the silver dial but has the same reference number. Porbably a QC issue There is a comparison here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojNFSYi6ec

3. Blue (20 listed) - Boutique exclusive produced for many years.

4. Silver (40 listed) - standard 15400 color produced across the years. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojNFSYi6ec)

5. Black (49 listed) - most common color.

link: https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

It should translate to something like the following percentages:
4% Grey
10% White
15% Blue
31% Silver
38% Black

If white is a QC issue then the probable production target for dial colors would be:

40% Silver/White
40% Black
15% Blue
5% Grey

Looking at the current supply and production years, I think we are really a bit crazy to pay such a premium for blue dials when it was most likely produced at quite a higher number than we are led to believe.

Apply the same analysis for 15500s. If I had to guess the numbers would probably look like:

25% Silver
30% Black
20% Blue
25% Grey

link: https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

15500 would have more grey since its part of the regular production while the 15400 only had a 1 year run. Looking at the amount of blue dials available I think AP increased the 15500 blue dial production because it sells well. White was always a slower seller so they probably reduced production numbers. Black is the standard.

Blue is rare but not as rare as the premium it commands suggests. The "extra" premium seems to be the manufactured exclusivity of being able to say that it is a boutique exclusive and the perceived rarity of blue.

The most rare in real numbers should be the 15400ST in grey, and the least is black for both 15500/15400.

[Fenrira]

While I disagree with using Chrono24 as a methodto estimate the production proportion of each dial colour, I think your conclusions are quite accurate. From what I know, before the gray dial 15400 was released, the split was 40:40:20 between black, white and blue respectively.

[Champagnepapi]

If I’m not mistaken the white/silver dial for the 15500 came at a later stage than the other dial colors


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[karasus]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

If I’m not mistaken the white/silver dial for the 15500 came at a later stage than the other dial colors

Very true, they reintroduced white/silver later. However I believe that it was their original intention to completely discontinue white as it was the least demanded 15400st and could even be bought at a discount. The replacement color would probably be grey.

Once they stopped production on the white dials, the general public started buying white 15400.

Its like they say, you really don't know you've lost something good until it's gone. Guess the public outcry and demand made them do a 180. We then got white dials again.

Originally Posted by Fenrira

While I disagree with using Chrono24 as a methodto estimate the production proportion of each dial colour, I think your conclusions are quite accurate. From what I know, before the gray dial 15400 was released, the split was 40:40:20 between black, white and blue respectively.

Agreed, I think chrono24 will not give a 100% accurate picture.

However circulating supply ratio is strongly correlated with production ratios. If the circulating supply is large enough, it should give a very good representation of the actual production ratios.

Basically it's going to give us a pretty good guess. If you exclude grey from the picture the 15400 ratio from chrono24 is also about 42:42:16, very close to 40:40:20. If you apply a bit of human psychology, you can expect that the targets at planning meetings was with round numbers so actual planned numbers was probably 40:40:20.

[TunaTuna]

Regardless of rarity, blue is the 'it' color and the best looking version. That is why it is more expensive. Scarcity, if your numbers are right, isn't the only thing that matters. Collectors have to like the watch. Plenty of limited edition Omega's and Panerai's out there that are not worth much

[GB-man]

None of them are rare

[dh1]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Regardless of rarity, blue is the 'it' color and the best looking version. That is why it is more expensive. Scarcity, if your numbers are right, isn't the only thing that matters. Collectors have to like the watch. Plenty of limited edition Omega's and Panerai's out there that are not worth much

+1 to that.

I think the "because we assume that it is the rarest and most exclusive" part of the OP's post is where it's stretching too far.

Yes there's the "boutique exclusive" aspect of blue (which doesn't mean total production numbers are lower), but it just seems to be a color that people like. It's probably somewhat related to the more exclusive 15202 being blue and therefore your blue 15400 or 15450 looks closer to it. It seems blue is the most in demand and seen as the most desirable. Both supply and demand matter.

The gray 15400 is much rarer but the look appeals to fewer people.