Low Balling....

[pepemaui]

Gotta say, I am NOT unhappy.....Im slightly tickled to read that when watches were being offered at 500% (John Mayer), $200k, and some offered $150k (Not Me) they were called "LOWBALLERS" for their 350% offer.....

Still amazes me to see post "reasonable offers considered" and "No Low Ballers" when the asking price was 2-5 times MSRP.....Interesting how they thought they were the judge and jury of the asking and offer price...

I personally would start offering retail or below on any watch people are interested in obtaining....There is a plethora of inventory waiting....If they say ^*$#+@ you, so what....

[HMHM]

Honestly, that is their right though. We can only vote with our wallets.
Personally, buying from grey is something I won't recommend, especially for models still in production. However, how people spend their money is their choice after all.
This is just a demonstration of capitalism.

[brandrea]

The market dictates what a reasonable offer is, so I don’t think lowballing will get anyone too far.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Gotta say, I am NOT unhappy.....Im slightly tickled to read that when watches were being offered at 500% (John Mayer), $200k, and some offered $150k (Not Me) they were called "LOWBALLERS" for their 350% offer.....

Still amazes me to see post "reasonable offers considered" and "No Low Ballers" when the asking price was 2-5 times MSRP.....Interesting how they thought they were the judge and jury of the asking and offer price...

I personally would start offering retail or below on any watch people are interested in obtaining....There is a plethora of inventory waiting....If they say ^*$#+@ you, so what....

Well today Rolex are no longer watches now little more that £££$$$$€€€€ object things and little more and sold to the highest bidder.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The market dictates what a reasonable offer is, so I don’t think lowballing will get anyone too far.

Agree in part....The Market dictates.....

But, "the market" is the people's offer in part....

[Mystro]

Msrp means nothing with Rolex now. The market is what it is and decides the price point. That train left the station years ago so the seller is saying, know the market value when making a offer and don’t waist my time with a offer significantly lower of the market value. The “market” is not what low ball offer people might try to make but rather what the watch actually sells for. Think real estate and comp prices of similar products in similar locations.

[Cambo]

I’ve noticed that dealers up here are no longer putting prices next to their watches, but rather saying “call for information”

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Cambo

I’ve noticed that dealers up here are no longer putting prices next to their watches, but rather saying “call for information”

The genie is out of the bottle with AD’s by using Rolex as a carat to sell other jewelry. It’s never going to go back to the way it was buying a Rolex at a AD with watches in the display cases. Those days are long gone.
It’s a hard pill to accept for some and Rolex might not ever fit into their comfort zone of purchasing but fortunately there are many other brands with full display cases that can be purchased on the spot, even with a discount that will fit into their buying criteria.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Cambo

I’ve noticed that dealers up here are no longer putting prices next to their watches, but rather saying “call for information”

And they’re advertising “in stock now!”.

[mobster600]

Good luck to anyone who trying selling their HOTTEST's models. Dealers have been low balling people due to over inventory. People are slowing down their purchasing. Dealers can't move enough inventory to keep up with the incoming selling volume. Dealers might need to start dropping prices to make way for new incoming inventory. I think the next 6-12 months will see deeper cracks. Hopefully at the same time we'll see ADs start building inventory.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s never going to go back to the way it was buying a Rolex at a AD with watches in the display cases. Those days are long gone.
.

Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?

[chippie]

I think the "Market" is in turmoil at the moment,
Nobody knows for sure where prices will stabilise ,so any offer of MSRP should be an offer for consideration for any current model.
Like the OP said" NO" maybe the answer a lot of the time but someone might need their money out .
If greys are not buying someone has to !!

[Mystro]

[QUOTE=smg8;12206423]Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?[/QUOTE]


The lack of Rolex SS models in a AD was years before the Covid lock downs and decades when considering the SS Daytona. The forum was filled with pages as soon as Covid first hit declaring the world was going to end for Rolex and the bubble was going to burst.

It’s a different Rolex brand now in the way it is perceived by the general public and the way AD’s have now used it as a tool to sell other products. Some like to demonize the grey market but it is the AD’s that are the first to handle a Rolex watch directly from Rolex and it’s the AD’s that will never put them in a display case again for open sales. There is too much leverage and power now utilized by the AD to ever let that go. Rolex approves and even continues to thin out their franchise funneling even more customers to less dealers. Rolex also is helping the AD with their tactics by giving them “display models”. We are so far away from Rolex 15 years ago it isn’t possible to return to those days.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by smg8

Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?

AD availability issues started before the pandemic.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by smg8

Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?

Some have not been around,........

They will see, when markets tighten......Just like they saw when markets are "loose".... Many of us have seen both several times over the years....This is not special, we just had a 8-9 year bull run.....

When mortgage rates are back at 8, car lots full with "discount signs", everything for sale as people "hold $"... Its not a guess. it happens cyclically...IMHO.

Law of averages......

[Chewbacca]

Amazing what happens to priority hierarchy when the needs are food, rent, healthcare, taxes, education, experiences, family, or Rolex speculation.

And I’m actually happy prudent business people made money, but I won’t shed a tear if they overextended.

(Only someone with my Rolex investing insight wins at this game!)

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by chewbacca

amazing what happens to priority hierarchy when the needs are food, rent, healthcare, taxes, education, experiences, family, or rolex speculation.

And i’m actually happy prudent business people made money, but i won’t shed a tear if they overextended.

(only someone with my rolex investing insight wins at this game!)

ding ding ding winner winner!!

[smg8]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The lack of Rolex SS models in a AD was years before the Covid lock downs and decades when considering the SS Daytona.

That's a changing of the goalposts, your post didn't mention SS models or the Daytona. It specifically said we won't ever return to a time where you can walk into an AD and see watches in cases.

You could do exactly this in 2019....it stopped in 2020. I don't think 2020 - 2022 with a pandemic and multiple other factors is enough of a sample size to say we won't ever see what we saw for decades ever again.

Let's see how much power the AD's have when we are balls deep in a recession.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Amazing what happens to priority hierarchy when the needs are food, rent, healthcare, taxes, education, experiences, family, or Rolex speculation.

And I’m actually happy prudent business people made money, but I won’t shed a tear if they overextended.

(Only someone with my Rolex investing insight wins at this game!)

Dang Chewy, you nailed it.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by smg8

That's a changing of the goalposts, your post didn't mention SS models or the Daytona. It specifically said we won't ever return to a time where you can walk into an AD and see watches in cases.

You could do exactly this in 2019....it stopped in 2020. I don't think 2020 - 2022 with a pandemic and multiple other factors is enough of a sample size to say we won't ever see what we saw for decades ever again.

Let's see how much power the AD's have when we are balls deep in a recession.

"Licking my Chops" to finally, after many years, to be in a position to be ready "when that time comes again". Its only father time and experience that taught us.... (Is there an Obi-Wan Kenobi emoji?, LOL)

[G23Guy]

I walked in to my AD in 2019 and bought a Sub sitting in the case. There was no Daytona there but my SA was willing to order me any watch they didn't have in stock with an at most, 8 week or less wait.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are so far away from Rolex 15 years ago it isn’t possible to return to those days.

I have a feeling we are going to soon find out whether your assessment is correct. Can’t wait to revisit this in about 6-12 months, or less.

[rpstrimple]

Daytonas are always going to be hard to get. It's the unicorn of the brand. But subs and GMTs? I wouldn't be surprised to see those in cases in a year.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I have a feeling we are going to soon find out whether your assessment is correct. Can’t wait to revisit this in about 6-12 months, or less.

Bookmark this thread! Curious to see how things play out.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

AD availability issues started before the pandemic.

Exactly.

And the complete and utter desperation of new members here posting about AD's lack of stock, their need to buy a Rolex all points to constant demand above supply.

[johnwigan]

I believe many commenting on this thread are still at the 'New Paradigm' stage. It will never return to normal because [insert nonsense here]. This is the 'new normal'. We are only at the beginning of the end of this bubble. Long way to go yet. Meanwhile, Rolex keeps churning out those million watches, year in, year out. And history keeps repeating and repeating. This diagram was not created for Rolex grey market prices but for some other bubble in the past.

[mwc5k]

Originally Posted by smg8

Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?

There’s a lot of recency bias in the forum.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by mwc5k

There’s a lot of recency bias in the forum.

Crazy when it comes from members that self-reportedly have multiple decades of Rolex experience. Almost like they remember the past and don’t want it back. Not sure why. Buying a Rolex felt more special back then to me, not less.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by rpstrimple

Daytonas are always going to be hard to get. It's the unicorn of the brand. But subs and GMTs? I wouldn't be surprised to see those in cases in a year.

The models that will be in the cases are likely to be Datejusts, Oyster Perpetuals, Yacht Masters, and Day Dates etc. which was the case up until 2019. I doubt you will see Subs and GMT's in cases unless things get really bad.

[boomer28]

Originally Posted by ronricks

The models that will be in the cases are likely to be Datejusts, Oyster Perpetuals, Yacht Masters, and Day Dates etc. which was the case up until 2019. I doubt you will see Subs and GMT's in cases unless things get really bad.

Agree 100% here. Wait times will drop, check out the "AD Wait Times Megathread" on reddit. Seeing more people with zero/limited history waiting <=6 months for a variety of pieces. Secondary market will cool but there will always be a premium for the GMT/Daytona type watches but it will be a bit more reasonable.