Rolex market industry sizing

[fly4food84]

Hi all,

I split my time between piloting and also have a long history in management consulting. I work for a large firm in Boston where very often Fortune 500s/100s hire us to size their industry, determine their market share, and give input on what competitors are doing which ultimately provide insight to CEOs and their Boards from a 3rd party for future action. We normally have teams of people that interview industry experts and run analysis on available data to turn that into an insightful slide deck.

I am interested in doing this on the side of course because of my passion for watches particularly of Rolex. I want to research facts (e.g. Rolex makes 1.0-1.2m watches annually), make some calculated assumptions based what’s for sale in the market, their current prices as well as historical (WatchChart pro membership I have to help) ask questions in this thread/PM of TRF members, I will use Python scripts to download data from eBay and Reddit groups, etc.

This is all for fun and hobby of course, I will share with everyone, then get feedback from TRF members and calibrate findings off of that.

How does this sound??


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[WristWatchWonders]

Cool, thanks.

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[alllexandru]

Should be interesting and actually exciting

Subscribed :D

[EverCloserUnion]

As someone who works in a very similar field (economics / consulting rather than cool flying stuff) I'd be very interested to see this.

On a vaguely related note, I've been wondering if we could calculate rough AD waiting list times from the spread between MSRP and grey values of various current references.

[alphadweller]

Subbed. This should be insteresting, thanks!

[Case61]

That is really interesting and would be great if you can do it. I wonder though, because Rolex is famously secretive. It is owned by a family charitable trust and not publicly traded. I believe, under Swiss law, its public filings are limited. Have you looked at how you would you get information on it?

[PenDelicate]

Fantastic!

[KatGirl]

If you can get the data, cool.

Kat


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[Kevin of Larchmont]

Looking forward to it.

[fly4food84]

Originally Posted by Case61

That is really interesting and would be great if you can do it. I wonder though, because Rolex is famously secretive. It is owned by a family charitable trust and not publicly traded. I believe, under Swiss law, its public filings are limited. Have you looked at how you would you get information on it?

There is very limited data to work with. It starts with a public statement that Rolex produces 1 to 1.2 million watches per year. Aside from that, I have to make assumptions based on the number of models available on Chrono24, eBay, etc., considering how many are Sport models versus Datejusts. Ultimately, I want to determine how many of the 1.2 million watches produced annually are Professional models, such as Daytonas, Subs, and GMTs.

For example, I want to establish the number of authorized dealers (ADs) globally and in the U.S. If Rolex makes 1.2 million watches per year, I aim to find out how many watches the average AD receives annually, and of those, how many are likely to be Daytonas, GMTs, and Datejusts, etc etc.

There are 1,446 Rolex ADs globally via their website, of which 279 in the U.S. (researched by me) = U.S. share of 19.2% (assumed simply based on that method to calculate market shares - we can go deeper later). High level, if Rolex makes 1.2m per year, the U.S. should get 230,000 watches per year allocated.

I like quotes like this that also justify the next level down: "Out of Rolex’s 1 million watches produced per year, it is estimated that between 20,000 and 40,000 of them are Daytona’s, a whopping low 2% to 4%. Don’t forget, that number is then shared between all the variations of the Daytona. Source: https://www.chrono24.com/magazine/wh...mhlLbHqi7lA1_H <-- though I believe its 1.2m now - just use it as reference. Source 2: https://www.bobswatches.com/rolex-bl...uhmGen8Ih6gszC


Now based on this (Method 1 for now) lets split 2-4% and say its 3% today, multiply .03% x 1.2m = 36,000 per year / # of Rolex global ADs = 24.8 Daytonas per AD globally.

It doesn't end there, lets say based on # of ADs, that the U.S. gets the 19.2% market share because of the number of locations in the U.S. versus anywhere else (again simplified, but for bench marking purposes lets start here).

230,000 annual U.S. Rolex watches produced (230k/279 ADs = 68.6 Rolex watches per year) x 3% Daytona estimate = 6,900 total (again, this would include SS & PM models) / 279 U.S. ADs = 24.7 Daytonas to each U.S. AD.

I can confirm this more or less as I’ve spoken with a couple of different ADs who mentioned that they receive about 6 white and 6 black Daytonas per year, the rest I would say is PM. I believe this estimate is accurate for the average AD in the U.S. Based on TRF members feedback they've also heard themselves from their AD - we can calibrate this breakdown as well that's what I need help with.

[brandrea]

A lot of this information is pretty in depth and interesting

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/da...dy-2023_EN.pdf

https://monochrome-watches.com/indus...llion-barrier/

[ArtNouveau]

Just throwing out that in the US(and probably worldwide)dealers are not created equal, there are tiers. In the US the AD owned Rolex only Boutiques are the top of the food chain, they get exponentially more inventory than a smaller market mom and pop jeweler/AD.
I was told circa 2018 or so that my Boutique’s “floor plan” was 275 watches which I took to mean they expected to sell that many monthly. Was also told they were the 3rd highest volume US dealer the previous year. When I got my 116500 in 2019, I was told they expected 30 that year in equally divided by dial color.
This is one major reason that when someone here says they haven’t seen a xxxx in months I think that AD is not telling the truth.

[subtona]

Way Outside my skill set and language on so many levels … looking forward to it.

[m j b]

Good luck. Of course, you know that many of the watches listed on Chrono24 are not actually existing in inventory, right? They're listed for sale, and many of these vendors wait until they have a sale, and then they go out and buy it on the market.

I know some B&M stores do this as well for their online presence, although I suspect it's less common on eBay.

As noted, Rolex is private, and so numbers are hard to come by. You'll use supposition and guesses like those articles that you quoted from. No hard facts.

[jb335]

Very much in my wheelhouse, look forward to reading more on this....good thread, potentially

[Robf52]

Regarding the tier hierarchy of ADs, I had an interesting conversation regarding their current major under-construction build-out/expansion/redesign of floor space, specifically done to satisfy Rolex demands. They previously had the lighted "ROLEX" signage on the outside building facade. Rolex informed them their sales volume doesn't qualify for similar outside branding, and signage will be restricted to the inside of the store. What Rolex wants, Rolex gets.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Robf52

Regarding the tier hierarchy of ADs, I had an interesting conversation regarding their current major under-construction build-out/expansion/redesign of floor space, specifically done to satisfy Rolex demands. They previously had the lighted "ROLEX" signage on the outside building facade. Rolex informed them their sales volume doesn't qualify for similar outside branding, and signage will be restricted to the inside of the store. What Rolex wants, Rolex gets.

Very interesting. Never thought about it that much but I can recall some ADs with just the crown emblem on the facade, others have that plus lettering. My local AD is currently undergoing a major remodel of their store and in a temporary space. Rolex and Tudor will now have their own rooms, wonder what will be outside.

[Case61]

Originally Posted by fly4food84

There is very limited data to work with. It starts with a public statement that Rolex produces 1 to 1.2 million watches per year. Aside from that, I have to make assumptions based on the number of models available on Chrono24, eBay, etc., considering how many are Sport models versus Datejusts. Ultimately, I want to determine how many of the 1.2 million watches produced annually are Professional models, such as Daytonas, Subs, and GMTs.

For example, I want to establish the number of authorized dealers (ADs) globally and in the U.S. If Rolex makes 1.2 million watches per year, I aim to find out how many watches the average AD receives annually, and of those, how many are likely to be Daytonas, GMTs, and Datejusts, etc etc.

There are 1,446 Rolex ADs globally via their website, of which 279 in the U.S. (researched by me) = U.S. share of 19.2% (assumed simply based on that method to calculate market shares - we can go deeper later). High level, if Rolex makes 1.2m per year, the U.S. should get 230,000 watches per year allocated.

I like quotes like this that also justify the next level down: "Out of Rolex’s 1 million watches produced per year, it is estimated that between 20,000 and 40,000 of them are Daytona’s, a whopping low 2% to 4%. Don’t forget, that number is then shared between all the variations of the Daytona. Source: https://www.chrono24.com/magazine/wh...mhlLbHqi7lA1_H <-- though I believe its 1.2m now - just use it as reference. Source 2: https://www.bobswatches.com/rolex-bl...uhmGen8Ih6gszC


Now based on this (Method 1 for now) lets split 2-4% and say its 3% today, multiply .03% x 1.2m = 36,000 per year / # of Rolex global ADs = 24.8 Daytonas per AD globally.

It doesn't end there, lets say based on # of ADs, that the U.S. gets the 19.2% market share because of the number of locations in the U.S. versus anywhere else (again simplified, but for bench marking purposes lets start here).

230,000 annual U.S. Rolex watches produced (230k/279 ADs = 68.6 Rolex watches per year) x 3% Daytona estimate = 6,900 total (again, this would include SS & PM models) / 279 U.S. ADs = 24.7 Daytonas to each U.S. AD.

I can confirm this more or less as I’ve spoken with a couple of different ADs who mentioned that they receive about 6 white and 6 black Daytonas per year, the rest I would say is PM. I believe this estimate is accurate for the average AD in the U.S. Based on TRF members feedback they've also heard themselves from their AD - we can calibrate this breakdown as well that's what I need help with.

This really is all fascinating. Good luck, and we'll all look forward to your results.

[Torshalla]

The recently published Submariner book should be helpful :)


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