Grey Market Overload

[MSchu]

want a change is grey market situations... open up the for sale section to comments from buyers. that will change many things.

[Roli4life]

Doesn’t seem to be much of an overload. I recently received an email from DSW stating an interest in purchasing any watches I may be thinking of selling. I think if there was an inventory overload grays wouldn’t be eager to buy watches right now.

This may lend some insight to the fact that grays are having difficulty attaining inventory from A.D.’s lately, and are now increasingly looking to purchase from independent watch collectors.

[supra8903]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

Doesn’t seem to be much of an overload. I recently received an email from DSW stating an interest in purchasing any watches I may be thinking of selling. I think if there was an inventory overload grays wouldn’t be eager to buy watches right now.

This may lend some insight to the fact that grays are having difficulty attaining inventory from A.D.’s lately, and are now increasingly looking to purchase from independent watch collectors.

Ive been getting this email for years... I even get it from some ADs (where I bought breitlings and other less desirable units)

[77T]

As the years go by, and owners look for newer models after growing tired of the Daytona500, BLRO, Hulk, etc. one can expect to see more of them on the sales sites.

Also, any seller who might have held back any stock (in the hopes of continued rising prices) are seeing the price curve plateau and perhaps selling more inventory than before.

Gold hit a 7 year high today so you’ll see more of it on the market too.


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[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by supra8903

Ive been getting this email for years... I even get it from some ADs (where I bought breitlings and other less desirable units)

But they have to send it, and personally I have been getting many of these lately.

Point being, they are looking to purchase likely due to demand. Not very logical if there is an over abundance of inventory. Unless you are planning to sit on inventory for a while, which is not advisable.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Everything is the same....

You are 100% correct ... And we don't need no stinking watches .. I love it

[locutus49]

Every week we get threads stating that grey are on the ropes and the bubble has burst and Rolex will get their just desserts. That sort of thing. Wishful thinking and self-delusion.

Originally Posted by Roli4life

But they have to send it, and personally I have been getting many of these lately.

Point being, they are looking to purchase likely due to demand. Not very logical if there is an over abundance of inventory. Unless you are planning to sit on inventory for a while, which is not advisable.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

But they have to send it, and personally I have been getting many of these lately.

Point being, they are looking to purchase likely due to demand. Not very logical if there is an over abundance of inventory. Unless you are planning to sit on inventory for a while, which is not advisable.

To be of the fairest variety, this is no different that car dealerships calling to say they want your used car. They only buy on their terms and when it's favorable for them, not for the person selling. I imagine for every person who wants to sell their Movado, they may get someone with a sought after piece that is willing to let it go for a low enough price that a grey can make a profit. It's basically like fishing.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by IndianRider

Seriously? What's the thread?

It was a month actually ... a Submariner in Canada (nfld I believe).

[Sonos]

ADs are selling lots of Rolex watches to lots of people.

Some people want to make a quick $1000 and flip the watch to a gray.

Some people wear and cherish the watch.

Next week AD gets another Rolex delivery.........

[Ihatecheese]

Same as usual. It's a mass produced item so obviously the Grey's have lots of stock. Whilst ADs will replenish thers as and when the robots stamp out some more.

[blada4life]

Originally Posted by supra8903

Hello Friends.



Maybe it is just me, but all I am seeing for the last week is even more for sale threads with professional models. Maybe not the Daytona, but subs, GMTs, explorers, etc.

If you couple this with the new threads like... "New Sub without relationship with AD" and others like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.



I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.

That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.



Thoughts?

People also lie and troll. Not saying it doesn’t happen but I am saying the “no relationship with AD” threads are way too common for anything more than a plain sub. I’ve flown around the US for work etc and I can tell you In the last 1.5 years I’ve been placed “on the list” for a watch or two at like 15 different ADs. Not one has called me lol. I rely only on my one faithful AD who I have an established relationship with. Point is, these types of threads smell of BS.


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[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

Doesn’t seem to be much of an overload. I recently received an email from DSW stating an interest in purchasing any watches I may be thinking of selling. I think if there was an inventory overload grays wouldn’t be eager to buy watches right now.

This may lend some insight to the fact that grays are having difficulty attaining inventory from A.D.’s lately, and are now increasingly looking to purchase from independent watch collectors.

Grey market dealers always are looking for inventory... because they have orders for the watch and have to go and get it for less than the offer price.

It isn't rocket science.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by 037

Let's assume Rolex produces ~1M watches annually and the watches you're seeing have been produced within the last 5 years (just to make mathematics simple). We can't assume they're all brand new. Some certainly are used.

(40+29+16) / 5M = 0.000017%

So, this secondary dealer has a fraction of a percentage of what's out in the world.

Hope that helps.

That helps a lot.


Statistics. Not your strong suit right?

[EEpro]

I'm looking forward to the Basel 2020 release "Grey Side of the Market Submariner"

Watches so cool they'll sell twice before they find a home.

[Mbalce]

Two words - Hong Kong

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Grey market dealers always are looking for inventory... because they have orders for the watch and have to go and get it for less than the offer price.



It isn't rocket science.

Obviously...

[Michael V]

The economy is super strong. Luxury goods as a whole will continue flying off the shelves for what looks like another 4.5 years.

[037]

Originally Posted by directioneng

That helps a lot.


Statistics. Not your strong suit right?

Haha, definitely not. I'm pretty good at SWAGs though.

[thekman]

Honestly, I used to believe the stories about greys just "providing a service" and that they just have to increase their prices so they can get a cut too because the flippers are flipping for high prices. However, in the past couple of months I entertained the idea of selling a couple of my watches to possibly leverage their current higher market price and buy some other watches I want to enjoy. The offers I got from some of the major grey dealers here were insulting to say the least. The same watches they were selling for 3 or 4k above retail they wanted to buy off me for retail or even less. Of course I did not accept their offers. I was just baffled about the amount of praise they get from some our members here. And yes I get that it's a business built on buying low and selling high but this whole thing confirmed to me how they manipulate the market.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by thekman

Honestly, I used to believe the stories about greys just "providing a service" and that they just have to increase their prices so they can get a cut too because the flippers are flipping for high prices. However, in the past couple of months I entertained the idea of selling a couple of my watches to possibly leverage their current higher market price and buy some other watches I want to enjoy. The offers I got from some of the major grey dealers here were insulting to say the least. The same watches they were selling for 3 or 4k above retail they wanted to buy off me for retail or even less. Of course I did not accept their offers. I was just baffled about the amount of praise they get from some our members here. And yes I get that it's a business built on buying low and selling high but this whole thing confirmed to me how they manipulate the market.

Your experience may be pointing to shrinking demand and shrinking margins.

[boogiebot]

I believe there is a ton of overflow as well. A good friend of mine went to a show this past week for grey dealers. The show was in Vegas and there was a shit ton of Rolex inventory. I’m sure some it moved but a lot of it was sitting around idle. This is nothing new, as we have all seen the Instagram pics with tons of LV’s and other subs and gmts stacked up.

Although we can all speculate and what I’m saying may be conjecture at best; it does seem like there is diminishing amount of buyers willing to pay premiums.


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[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Michael V

The economy is super strong. Luxury goods as a whole will continue flying off the shelves for what looks like another 4.5 years.

Perhaps in your US bubble but if you look outside the box it is far from strong. Luxury brands across across Asia, and even the Middle East, are currently taking a beating.

[APPRF]

Luxury brands in Middle East still strong, especially Rolex, Cartier, LV,.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by 42itus

When the hype dies down then people stop paying premiums. When people stop paying premiums then gray dealers stop offering to pay over retail to flippers. If flippers can't make money then they stop purchasing to flip. Slowly we start seeing more stock available. It's common sense and we are still far away from seeing SS in display cases but hopefully this is trending in the right direction. The only people who "lose" in this scenario are the ones that purchased with the thought of making money.

This.

“ It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...” - The Dude

[bayerische]

We the consumer have all the power, just stop overpaying at Greys.

But yes it is slowing down.

[Rori]

Originally Posted by bayerische

We the consumer have all the power, just stop overpaying at Greys.



But yes it is slowing down.

Kudos


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