Is demand real?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

That and they did the same thing Omega does (which for the life of me I don’t understand) by putting out multiple ‘limited edition’ models. It’s does nothing but cheapen a brand, don’t get it.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

And more recently Panerai has been posting pictures of fake watches on their official Instagram page.

Very poorly managed. The mistakes keep happening.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

Makes sense!

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by holdingon

Demand is real. One major difference vs 10-20 yrs ago is IWC/Pam/Breitling/Omega(somewhat better) are all in the gutter one way or another. They really have no real competition until until you reach 15k+ USD zip code.

I think this is it.

Just several years ago, I've seen many into the watch hobby collecting the likes of JLC, Panerai, Omega, or even Hublot / UN / IWC ..

Today, most serious watch guys I know are only into Rolex, AP, PP, and select other specialist brands with low production.

Many people are just not interested in a JLC, even with a 30% discount off MSRP in secondary. With the smartwatch / smartphone being so prevalent, wearing a watch is no longer about meeting a functional need. It is all about acquiring a jewelry that appeals to your taste, or getting something "unique" or "hard to get" or "popular on Instagram".


It is very much of Rolex / AP / PP or bust situation nowadays, for many watch guys. Myself included.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

I think this is it.

Just several years ago, I've seen many into the watch hobby collecting the likes of JLC, Panerai, Omega, or even Hublot / UN / IWC ..

Today, most serious watch guys I know are only into Rolex, AP, PP, and select other specialist brands with low production.

Many people are just not interested in a JLC, even with a 30% discount off MSRP in secondary. With the smartwatch / smartphone being so prevalent, wearing a watch is no longer about meeting a functional need. It is all about acquiring a jewelry that appeals to your taste, or getting something "unique" or "hard to get" or "popular on Instagram".


It is very much of Rolex / AP / PP or bust situation nowadays, for many watch guys. Myself included.

For flippers, you mean it’s rolex/ap/pp or bust. For us watch enthusiasts there’s other brands that make superior watches for the price point.

But yes, for flippers and hype beasts you’re only able to acquire a Rolex/AP/PP at msrp and flip it for a profit.

That’s not why a lot of us are in the game.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

For flippers, you mean it’s rolex/ap/pp or bust. For us watch enthusiasts there’s other brands that make superior watches for the price point.

But yes, for flippers and hype beasts you’re only able to acquire a Rolex/AP/PP at msrp and flip it for a profit.

That’s not why a lot of us are in the game.

I have 3 watches (all rolex) and I think it is more than enough for me as a collection. I have difficulty wearing all 3 watches with enough wear out of each piece.

for most guys, having a 2-3 nice watch collection will do.

question is, do you want to have Rolex / AP / PP in that rotation, or do you want to squeeze in some other random piece from other brands into that rotation.

Omega - nice movement and nicely built, but cases are way too big for my wrist at 42-44mm.

Panerai - I think these are ugly as hell, so hard pass

Seiko - cases are wayyy too big

IWC - not a fan of dial / case design.

any other watch brands you like?

[MILGAUSS88]

I would describe the demand as a mile wide an a inch deep.

By this I mean that demand has created additional demand. The end buyer is not really there for the all the watches available at "market price."
A lot of the current demand is from dealers hoping to sell the watch for a profit.

The antique market was similar in the late 90's.
At that time at least half of my sales were to other dealers. At this time, it accounts for about 10% of my sales.
And market prices are down 50% to 70% for most categories. 90% for some.

If China and Hong Kong have some problems, the whole market could go south pretty quick.

[mountainjogger]

Perception is reality.

Stay safe.

[alphadweller]

I was very lucky this year. I got the new Bluesy the day I called without purchase history from one of the six ADs I called. I was later told by the SA they received a shipment shortly after my call and no one else had yet registered interest since the announcement. I got the very first to land from Geneva. Lucky strike. But then again the Bluesy is not a super hot watch.

I was also able to try a blue OP41 right after checking out the Bluesy. It was their third OP41 after a week since the release. Everyone seems to be wanting an OP this year. That's the new hot watch.

[ZOOK]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

Maybe Rolex has finally implemented a system to keep the AD - Authorized Distributors honest! They are forced to sell to a 'buy and wear' guy instead of the watch resellers.

[Rob_b]

I remember on this forum, when AD supply was bountiful, the discussion was whether one should pay a little more to purchase off an AD for the Rolex purchase "experience" AD relationship building etc, or just save a few dollars and go grey. How times have changed! And you'd be right in saying that was then, and this is now.
I bought a WG Daytona on bracelet here off one of our trusted sellers here for $16.5K only 3-4 years ago, so for me personally, it's a little hard for me to get caught up in the current hype.
So if it's taken 5 years for the pendulum to swing, how long till it swings back? Will there be an economic jolt to the world that will shock prices back by forcing discrestionary spending? Will Rolex production increase? Or will it be a slow thaw and take another 5 years to swing back to walking into an AD, say your name, and say, I'm here to purchase a..............
Live long enough, and you will notice cycles. Never believe when someone says, but this time, it's different.
But yes, I believe the demand is real. For now.

[Dr.Brian]

I think a lot of the initial demand is fueled by flippers and dreamers who are hoping to score a new model to sell on for a profit or to flip it again to a trusted seller.
Look at the demand for the green dial sub. I didn’t like it at $9, not $14, and certainly not $28. Is it really rare? They used to be in cases a couple years ago. Dreamers and artificial demand.

[Navarino]

Demand is real.

Of all the "hot" models, I would say the most "random" incoming posts I see are with the BLNR. I think that's partly due to the fact that 1) a lot of collectors may already have the preceding reference and 2) there is no doubt that the Pepsi is the "hotter" of the two current SS GMTs when it comes to demand (personal preference is entirely different).

[excelerater]

The sad thing is most ADs have a pretty large foot print of an area in a shop
thats not producing sales and taking up space

I went to 2 ADs this week and its like a gun shop. EMPTY

[TestnDoc]

The demand is off the charts. I got the call yesterday on the stainless blue face Skydweller. I’ve have a relationship with that AD for 15+ years, having bought many Rolexes and lots of jewelry for my wife. So in sum, the demand is real.

[Harry-57]

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

To be honest, the SkyD really does seem like it’s produced in fairly small numbers. I’ve never even seen one in the wild on somebody’s wrist in my entire life.

The ‘shortage’ people speak of on GMT and Subs though is absurd.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by dmash

To be honest, the SkyD really does seem like it’s produced in fairly small numbers. I’ve never even seen one in the wild on somebody’s wrist in my entire life.

The ‘shortage’ people speak of on GMT and Subs though is absurd.

Agreed about the Sky D but I swear to you I was unable to come up with a TT Bluesy from an AD in June. I spoke to over a dozen ADs and ended up getting one on C24...maybe I picked the wrong time but I wanted the 2019 before they were discontinued...

[dmash]

Originally Posted by garyk

Agreed about the Sky D but I swear to you I was unable to come up with a TT Bluesy from an AD in June. I spoke to over a dozen ADs and ended up getting one on C24...maybe I picked the wrong time but I wanted the 2019 before they were discontinued...

I think that can be chalked up to Rolex stopping supply as they were planning on the new release. Would make total sense

[garyk]

Originally Posted by dmash

I think that can be chalked up to Rolex stopping supply as they were planning on the new release. Would make total sense

That does make sense. Had me scratching my head which is why I went grey for the first time ever.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

Even if it takes years, I will wait for BLRO or Daytona. The wait for my Batgirl wasn't that bad. I even bought a Rootbeer one day as it was in the window. Even they have gone now.

[JLM3]

It does look the Ad's have been getting more from the incoming threads....

[donas]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

I don't think anything can be based off of a few "incoming posts". TRF represents a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex. Even if the supply / demand was to be determined from TRF, we'd need to see a post from everyone who has tried to get the same watch. If I was to guess, it would be hundreds or thousands of requests per actual acquisition.

I would venture to say that if you attempted to purchase a more sought after model, you would not be met with success in a timely manner. There is no doubt there is a much higher demand than there is supply. Even if the blame game for the greys was true, there would be substantially more listed than the one or two new models on the big name dealer sights.

I called around to several ADs and had some good conversations with a few. The manager of one location explained what a predicament it is to gain new customers by allotting pieces to them vs keeping valued customers by the same means. This may very well be a new strategy by many ADs, which was not a concern in the past.

Just my observations, like everyone else, just trying to make sense of the madness

[Andad]

Originally Posted by donas

I don't think anything can be based off of a few "incoming posts". TRF represents a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex. Even if the supply / demand was to be determined from TRF, we'd need to see a post from everyone who has tried to get the same watch. If I was to guess, it would be hundreds or thousands of requests per actual acquisition.

I would venture to say that if you attempted to purchase a more sought after model, you would not be met with success in a timely manner. There is no doubt there is a much higher demand than there is supply. Even if the blame game for the greys was true, there would be substantially more listed than the one or two new models on the big name dealer sights.

I called around to several ADs and had some good conversations with a few. The manager of one location explained what a predicament it is to gain new customers by allotting pieces to them vs keeping valued customers by the same means. This may very well be a new strategy by many ADs, which was not a concern in the past.

Just my observations, like everyone else, just trying to make sense of the madness

This may have been true 10 years ago but with >250000 interested enough to sign up as members of TRF I would say we represent more than a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex?

[donas]

Originally Posted by Andad

This may have been true 10 years ago but with >250000 interested enough to sign up as members of TRF I would say we represent more than a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex?

No way to know for sure, but it is comical to me to think the members of one web sight makes up a majority of anything. If Rolex makes millions of watches a year and this barely scratches the surface of the demand, I'd say there are a lot of people interested. Out of the 250,000 of those signed up for TRF, there is only a fraction of that number that are active and even looking at this sight now, people come and go. TRF is but a small hobby group....well, now it seems to be an investment sight, but you know what I mean.

[mrmclovin]

can't seem to justify the demand being that real when a few days after release most updated subs end up with a grey.. I have seen 2 Kermit C's be auctioned off in the same week by the same dealer but an AD will laugh at you for asking.

[zion_rasta]

I also got the call.

To extend my vehicle warranty..

[rmcarlton]

Originally Posted by zion_rasta

I also got the call.

To extend my vehicle warranty..

[Pam673]

Panerai's ex-CEO, Mr Bonati actually did Pam lovers a favour by driving flippers and greys out during the Panerai frenzy. He did that through consecutive injections of numerous Special/Limited Edition watches onto the market.

The used value of super hot Pam 10 years ago, i.e. 127, 217, 232, 249, Pre-V PVDs...were all driven down after the market was flooded with nearly carbon copies of past released SE/LE while housing an all new inhouse movement.

Big players (greys, collectors, flippers) saw their stocks dipped big time and dumped them all as fast as they could which collectively drove down the price even further. A lot of momentum buyers saw that the brand had lost lust allure in the used market and lost interest.

Now Pam lovers can walk into an AD on a level playing field without any bullshit game tactics.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Pam673

Panerai's ex-CEO, Mr Bonati actually did Pam lovers a favour by driving flippers and greys out during the Panerai frenzy. He did that through consecutive injections of numerous Special/Limited Edition watches onto the market.

The used value of super hot Pam 10 years ago, i.e. 127, 217, 232, 249, Pre-V PVDs...were all driven down after the market was flooded with nearly carbon copies of past released SE/LE while housing an all new inhouse movement.

Big players (greys, collectors, flippers) saw their stocks dipped big time and dumped them all as fast as they could which collectively drove down the price even further. A lot of momentum buyers saw that the brand had lost lust allure in the used market and lost interest.

Now Pam lovers can walk into an AD on a level playing field without any bullshit game tactics.

I for one can't believe Pam lovers exist. Such ugly watches. I never, ever saw the appeal.