Is demand real?

[BillA]

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

[fskywalker]

Well that may mean the waiting lists are real at some AD’s, don’t think that has to do with the demand not being real.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

[2001jesper]

No one knows. But neither ADs nor Greys have any incentive to let you think otherwise

[1William]

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

[JonaG]

Just looking at the “sold out” notices on Rolex at a dealer’s site Ive bought 5 watches from in the past tells me something’s going on. Demand is real. All Hulks, 5 digit kermits gone. Even a YM rhodium recently put up has sold for 3k over list. Madness. I guess the excitement has driven many to post their new incomings here but I feel when the first round of clients have been met then demand will hike up further...yikes.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo.

This x100

They created a ‘this is so hot it’s sold out everywhere‘ trend without even funneling stock that much. It’s absolute genius

[garyk]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

I think the demand is real but I hope you’re right to whatever degree you can be. You would think Rolex as a manufacturer might be capable of figuring out how to fix what’s wrong at least by a small percentage?!

[scooba]

I think Demand is real ,I just collected a new 41mm green sub and asked to look at the new oyster perpetual models with the new dials they had around ten allocated and all are sold and unlikely to have stock till 2021

[Casey VP-26]

Could be, The supply is getting better

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Casey VP-26

Could be, The supply is getting better

Good point. Maybe supply is better.

[Chester01]

Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .

[absin2]

Originally Posted by Casey VP-26

Could be, The supply is getting better

I do think so too, a better supply could be the result.

[inadeje]

BillA - I think that anyone who believes that the economic turmoil being instigated worldwide by the virus induced shutdowns is living in a fantasy land. The economic distress hasn’t yet got a good foothold, but it will. It may not affect many of the big luxury brands (like Rolex) because they’ve already had manufacturing shutdowns, and could easily just lower production. Its the consumers who will dwindle to a trickle. What we are seeing in the market is the reverse of my synopsis (for now), only because people with cash on hand are loading up on some pieces.

[Etschell]

supply is better because factories are open. but demand is relentless and not even close to being met.

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

I agree

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by inadeje

BillA - I think that anyone who believes that the economic turmoil being instigated worldwide by the virus induced shutdowns is living in a fantasy land. The economic distress hasn’t yet got a good foothold, but it will. It may not affect many of the big luxury brands (like Rolex) because they’ve already had manufacturing shutdowns, and could easily just lower production. Its the consumers who will dwindle to a trickle. What we are seeing in the market is the reverse of my synopsis (for now), only because people with cash on hand are loading up on some pieces.

Agreed....economically speaking, 2020 is going to look like a mild dip compared to 2021...

Government relief starts to wane, professional service industries that have had impacts lag will feel the brunt of what has happened, lending institution losses are set to sky rocket, earnings will take huge beatings.

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by 1William

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

Agree. Demand is real. Supply will not increase in a meaningful way.

As much as we’d like to think the tide will turn, and pieces will become more available (to us) at ADs, only time will tell. I doubt there will be a noticeable change anytime in the next few years, because supply will not increase and sellers want to maximize profit (even ADs).

[Calatrava r]

The Rolex market is over when it is. That will be, when it isn't cool to wear one and the big spenders have moved on to new toys. A total production of one million watches in a world of billions of people is really nothing, so good economy or bad, the Rolex market will be brisk and very tight until attitude and style moves elsewhere.

[legacy404]

The demand is also fueled by price speculation and grey brokers posing as clients. Not 100% 'real' demand...

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[zjd168]

it is

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .

Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


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[Maxy]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

The reason is unlike every year where watches are announced in March and then sent to ADs after few months but this year as no Baselworld, Covid; watches were first sent to ADs and then announced on Sep 1. You could get watch in couple of days unlike previous years!

[legacy404]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


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Eventually even the greys have to pay bills. I'm sure they have loans of some form out on their inventory.

Its possible AD's are now allocating more to randoms not on waitlists just walking in to stifle greys. There is a high likelihood that someone who can't buy a piece from an AD that visit will eventually just go online and buy there. And that guy may not ever be a return customer. Going through a waitlist can be a tedious task, when you know the guy that just walked in is ready to buy.

A smart AD would figure out that continuously pawning off your inventory to greys can hurt them in the long run.


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[fsprow]

Speculation without knowledge is certainly fun.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.



So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.



I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

What watches are you trying to get out of curiosity Bill.

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[shiftinggray]

Lately, I’ve heard of ADs who are holding warranty cards, which I am happy to hear. Anything to disincentivize flipping is OK by me.


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[Fleetlord]

These "cold call" incoming posts are leaving out pertinent details, such as not including the exact reference, not disclosing referrals or other connections to the dealer etc.

It creates the illusion of these references being easy pickings. It's not fair to newer members who don't know better and so they get frustrated when these false expectations can't be met.

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by 1William

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

This.