The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12 September 2020, 08:52 PM   #1
BillA
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: US
Posts: 3,882
Is demand real?

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.
BillA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 09:09 PM   #2
fskywalker
2024 Pledge Member
 
fskywalker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Real Name: Francisco
Location: San Juan, PR
Watch: Is Ticking !
Posts: 25,183
Is demand real?

Well that may mean the waiting lists are real at some AD’s, don’t think that has to do with the demand not being real.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________
Francisco
♛ 16610 / 116264
Ω 168.022 / 2535.80.00 / 310.30.42.50.01.002 / 210.90.42.20.01.001
Zenith 02.480.405

2FA security enabled
fskywalker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 09:15 PM   #3
Hollie_Rollie
2024 Pledge Member
 
Hollie_Rollie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,353
The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.
Hollie_Rollie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 09:16 PM   #4
2001jesper
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Real Name: Jesper
Location: Earth
Watch: 116234
Posts: 1,772
No one knows. But neither ADs nor Greys have any incentive to let you think otherwise
2001jesper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 09:28 PM   #5
1William
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: North Carolina
Watch: Rolex/Others
Posts: 47,790
I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.
1William is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 09:41 PM   #6
JonaG
"TRF" Member
 
JonaG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: East
Watch: ...
Posts: 1,171
Just looking at the “sold out” notices on Rolex at a dealer’s site Ive bought 5 watches from in the past tells me something’s going on. Demand is real. All Hulks, 5 digit kermits gone. Even a YM rhodium recently put up has sold for 3k over list. Madness. I guess the excitement has driven many to post their new incomings here but I feel when the first round of clients have been met then demand will hike up further...yikes.
__________________
Yacht-Master 126622, GMT-Master II 16710, Submariner 114060, Sea-Dweller 16600, Panerai Luminor PAM111
Lange Saxonia Moon Phase 384.029, Tudor Black Bay Harrods M79230G.
JonaG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 10:03 PM   #7
dmash
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 6,160
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo.
This x100

They created a ‘this is so hot it’s sold out everywhere‘ trend without even funneling stock that much. It’s absolute genius
dmash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 10:08 PM   #8
garyk
2024 Pledge Member
 
garyk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Real Name: Gary
Location: USA
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 11,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillA View Post
I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.
I think the demand is real but I hope you’re right to whatever degree you can be. You would think Rolex as a manufacturer might be capable of figuring out how to fix what’s wrong at least by a small percentage?!
__________________
garyk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 10:13 PM   #9
scooba
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Europe
Watch: Anything
Posts: 2,586
I think Demand is real ,I just collected a new 41mm green sub and asked to look at the new oyster perpetual models with the new dials they had around ten allocated and all are sold and unlikely to have stock till 2021
scooba is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 10:36 PM   #10
Casey VP-26
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: America
Posts: 2,721
Could be, The supply is getting better
Casey VP-26 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 10:41 PM   #11
BillA
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: US
Posts: 3,882
Quote:
Originally Posted by Casey VP-26 View Post
Could be, The supply is getting better
Good point. Maybe supply is better.
BillA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 11:02 PM   #12
Chester01
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: East Coast
Watch: 16610
Posts: 4,933
Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?
Chester01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 11:06 PM   #13
TswaneNguni
"TRF" Member
 
TswaneNguni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Real Name: Chris
Location: .
Watch: Daytonas/Subs/GMTs
Posts: 12,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chester01 View Post

Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?
Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .
TswaneNguni is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 11:09 PM   #14
absin2
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: United States
Posts: 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Casey VP-26 View Post
Could be, The supply is getting better
I do think so too, a better supply could be the result.
absin2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12 September 2020, 11:16 PM   #15
inadeje
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
inadeje's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Miami
Watch: me lose count.
Posts: 5,907
BillA - I think that anyone who believes that the economic turmoil being instigated worldwide by the virus induced shutdowns is living in a fantasy land. The economic distress hasn’t yet got a good foothold, but it will. It may not affect many of the big luxury brands (like Rolex) because they’ve already had manufacturing shutdowns, and could easily just lower production. Its the consumers who will dwindle to a trickle. What we are seeing in the market is the reverse of my synopsis (for now), only because people with cash on hand are loading up on some pieces.
__________________
♛ 218206 Roman ♛ 116689 ♛ 126710BLRO ♛ 16520 white ♛ 16523 white ♛ 16610 ♛ 5513 Birth Year - ✠ Patek Philippe 5980/1R-001 - AP 26331ST Panda - Panerai Bronzo 671 & 111, Ω Speedmaster 1957 Broad Arrow, Cartier Santos XL - Montblanc TimeWalker Chrono 41
inadeje is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 12:24 AM   #16
Etschell
"TRF" Member
 
Etschell's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: FL
Watch: platinum sub
Posts: 15,884
supply is better because factories are open. but demand is relentless and not even close to being met.
__________________
If you wind it, they will run.

25 or 6 to 4.
Etschell is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 01:41 AM   #17
Polarexplorerii
"TRF" Member
 
Polarexplorerii's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: SA,TX
Watch: 16570,BLNR,116610
Posts: 2,241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.
I agree
Polarexplorerii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 01:48 AM   #18
ufboy73
Banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: usa
Posts: 1,601
Quote:
Originally Posted by inadeje View Post
BillA - I think that anyone who believes that the economic turmoil being instigated worldwide by the virus induced shutdowns is living in a fantasy land. The economic distress hasn’t yet got a good foothold, but it will. It may not affect many of the big luxury brands (like Rolex) because they’ve already had manufacturing shutdowns, and could easily just lower production. Its the consumers who will dwindle to a trickle. What we are seeing in the market is the reverse of my synopsis (for now), only because people with cash on hand are loading up on some pieces.
Agreed....economically speaking, 2020 is going to look like a mild dip compared to 2021...

Government relief starts to wane, professional service industries that have had impacts lag will feel the brunt of what has happened, lending institution losses are set to sky rocket, earnings will take huge beatings.
ufboy73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 01:52 AM   #19
Bladeshot
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Bladeshot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Real Name: Grant
Location: U.S.
Watch: GMT 1675 PCG Gilt
Posts: 5,850
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1William View Post
I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

Agree. Demand is real. Supply will not increase in a meaningful way.

As much as we’d like to think the tide will turn, and pieces will become more available (to us) at ADs, only time will tell. I doubt there will be a noticeable change anytime in the next few years, because supply will not increase and sellers want to maximize profit (even ADs).
__________________
Just another WIS who loves to trade...
Bladeshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:02 AM   #20
Calatrava r
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,427
The Rolex market is over when it is. That will be, when it isn't cool to wear one and the big spenders have moved on to new toys. A total production of one million watches in a world of billions of people is really nothing, so good economy or bad, the Rolex market will be brisk and very tight until attitude and style moves elsewhere.
Calatrava r is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:08 AM   #21
legacy404
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: New York
Posts: 57
The demand is also fueled by price speculation and grey brokers posing as clients. Not 100% 'real' demand...

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
legacy404 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:10 AM   #22
zjd168
"TRF" Member
 
zjd168's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: US
Posts: 2,698
it is
zjd168 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:12 AM   #23
Chester01
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: East Coast
Watch: 16610
Posts: 4,933
Quote:
Originally Posted by TswaneNguni View Post
Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .

Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Chester01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:13 AM   #24
Maxy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: TX
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 3,231
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.
The reason is unlike every year where watches are announced in March and then sent to ADs after few months but this year as no Baselworld, Covid; watches were first sent to ADs and then announced on Sep 1. You could get watch in couple of days unlike previous years!
Maxy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:56 AM   #25
legacy404
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: New York
Posts: 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chester01 View Post
Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Eventually even the greys have to pay bills. I'm sure they have loans of some form out on their inventory.

Its possible AD's are now allocating more to randoms not on waitlists just walking in to stifle greys. There is a high likelihood that someone who can't buy a piece from an AD that visit will eventually just go online and buy there. And that guy may not ever be a return customer. Going through a waitlist can be a tedious task, when you know the guy that just walked in is ready to buy.

A smart AD would figure out that continuously pawning off your inventory to greys can hurt them in the long run.


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
legacy404 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 02:59 AM   #26
fsprow
2024 Pledge Member
 
fsprow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Real Name: Frank
Location: Dallas,NY,Colo.
Watch: Patek 5168, 5170P
Posts: 2,547
Speculation without knowledge is certainly fun.
fsprow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 03:11 AM   #27
JacksonRain
"TRF" Member
 
JacksonRain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillA View Post
I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.



So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.



I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.
What watches are you trying to get out of curiosity Bill.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk
JacksonRain is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 03:21 AM   #28
shiftinggray
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Real Name: Bryan
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Watch: Speedy Panda
Posts: 6
Lately, I’ve heard of ADs who are holding warranty cards, which I am happy to hear. Anything to disincentivize flipping is OK by me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
shiftinggray is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 04:22 AM   #29
Fleetlord
2024 Pledge Member
 
Fleetlord's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 6,025
These "cold call" incoming posts are leaving out pertinent details, such as not including the exact reference, not disclosing referrals or other connections to the dealer etc.

It creates the illusion of these references being easy pickings. It's not fair to newer members who don't know better and so they get frustrated when these false expectations can't be met.
Fleetlord is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 September 2020, 04:28 AM   #30
Robf52
"TRF" Member
 
Robf52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Sunshine State
Watch: lots of Rolex
Posts: 5,077
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1William View Post
I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.
This.
__________________
126610LV//116508 Daytona YG Black/Champagne
116655 YM40 Everose Oysterflex//126622 YM40 Blue//126600 SD43
126710BLNR//126711CHNR
126334 DJ41 Rhodium/Diamonds//126331 DJ41 TT Wimbledon
124300 OP41 Green//126334 DJ41Mint Green
Robf52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

OCWatches

Wrist Aficionado

My Watch LLC

WatchesOff5th

DavidSW Watches

Takuya Watches


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.