If the tables were turned...

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by Oyster Sauce

There is no doubt about the current strong market for luxury watches, especially Rolex (and AP, PP, and select independents). I remember seeing a comment somewhere predicting that the “bubble” will burst...time will tell.

The forum has been busy with a mix of excitement over incoming usual suspects (Rolex sport models) and lamentation about the hype/grey market (and a yearning for the good ole days).

Out of curiosity: if something were to happen in the market such that all of a sudden Rolex sport models lost 20% of their RRP value immediately after purchase instead of increasing (as is the case for many worthy competitors now), would you still pursue the same Rollies that you are hankering over in the current climate? Interested in all honest points of view.

For myself, the answer is clear: I’ll always be a fan of models like the Sub and Pepsi because I’ve always thought they’re cool. I am not currently pursuing either because I’m not willing to at the current going rates, and I’m at peace with that. Looking forward to hearing from the community.

Nothing would change. I buy to hold so I’m not really affected by the vagaries of the market. I still love my Rolexes and would buy more especially if I could get them preowned at a discount.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That is a great observation about the market 5yrs ago.

What's interesting also is...guess what was a focus of the market 5yrs ago...even 10yrs ago?

Yep. Value Retention. For sure, the valuation of watches was less in the spotlight than now, but it was absolutely a factor.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=156180

Look at this 10yr old poll attached to this thread linked above. Looks like quite a few members listed Resale value as being quite important to them.

Do a search. Plenty and plenty of threads regarding resale value and retention...

So, even though Rolex was selling for under retail, it wasn't losing as much value as "the other guys"..such as Omega, IWC, Breitling..etc

What I find more interesting is that resale valuation discussions have been on this forum for as long as I can remember..but people seem to think it's a recent "thing". Sure, it's more of a focus, but it's always been here...always will.

This really resonates with me. Thank you for the post and the flashback

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

That would be about 24-36 months ago when you could get the 15% OFF an BLNR, Sub or Datejust ..

My SA recently told me a story where he offered a guy $1,000 off the hulk without the guy even asking for a discount. The guy said “no it’s freaking ugly”. 1 year later the same guy was begging my SA for the hulk. I told my SA he should’ve said “noooo it’s still an ugly watch”

[beshannon]

You lost me at "rollies"

[Rochester585]

Originally Posted by IR201

Well a lot of people, including myself, buy from grey dealers at marked up prices. And when I do, if I wanted to sell it back safely, I'm prob looking at a 15-20 percent hit. So that right there answers the question - people are willing to do it for the watch itself.

What I find interesting actually are the people who will only buy at MSRP out of principle. Given today's market, what this actually translates to is "I refuse to purchase this watch unless I make thousands on my purchase". So the "pure" buyers are actually the ones de facto insisting on a profit from their purchase.

--I think youre wayyyyy off the mark with your assessment. For myself and im SURE many others, what it translates to is a refusal to pay many thousands extra and sometimes even twice over for something that can be had for MSRP with some patience and maybe some luck. Im a working guy, i can spend 10K for a sub or a GMT but i cant in good conscience spend 20K..and the reason for that is because i do intend to wear and use the watch and not use it as an investment or asset to be sold off when the time is right.

[KingsTrumper]

Interesting thread. I think the market is split between WIS and hype.

I also think whilst there are some genuine lovers of the hulk (replace with any hot model) lots of people got in due to the hype and either didn't wear it or if they did it was a case of the emperors new clothes.

I wouldn't stop buying what I liked and have 3 simple criteria for when purchasing:

1. If this watch was worthless after I bought it would I still be happy? (ensures I only buy what I love)

2. Will this work in my collection / add variety?

3. This is where money does come in a bit. Is this a watch I can level up with? What I mean is if I purchased an iced out rainbow datejust it has limited appeal if I ever wanted to trade out of it. But if you look at Hulk, Pepsi, Batman etc. Owners whose pieces climbed in value (assuming rrp paid) they then have the option to trade up to a PM or Skydweller etc.

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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Rochester585

--I think youre wayyyyy off the mark with your assessment. For myself and im SURE many others, what it translates to is a refusal to pay many thousands extra and sometimes even twice over for something that can be had for MSRP with some patience and maybe some luck. Im a working guy, i can spend 10K for a sub or a GMT but i cant in good conscience spend 20K..and the reason for that is because i do intend to wear and use the watch and not use it as an investment or asset to be sold off when the time is right.

Well you are very lucky if you’re living some place where ‘some patience and maybe some luck’ can get you a sub or anything like that because there are places in this world where no luck and patience count for absolutely zilch in the current market.

I am not sure there are as ‘many’ others like yourself as you may like to think.

And unless one lives in a world where luck and patience count towards getting a spirts model, refusing to pay grey is simply not understanding what is really very simple demand and supply.


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[IR201]

Originally Posted by Binky1

Interesting and well put on point #1. Not so sure about point #2 though.
I’m a sucker for the AD experience and owning from new. My watches are keepers. However I do often consider paying Grey for a Daytona to round off the collection...just haven’t quite got there yet. Patience is a virtue? Hmmm...

Originally Posted by Rochester585

--I think youre wayyyyy off the mark with your assessment. For myself and im SURE many others, what it translates to is a refusal to pay many thousands extra and sometimes even twice over for something that can be had for MSRP with some patience and maybe some luck. Im a working guy, i can spend 10K for a sub or a GMT but i cant in good conscience spend 20K..and the reason for that is because i do intend to wear and use the watch and not use it as an investment or asset to be sold off when the time is right.

Yeah you guys are both right. What I was really focusing on in my comment was not intent to only buy MSRP - which can be for any number of reasons - but the consequences of that position. And the consequences, for many models, include a windfall to the MSRP buyer in terms of monetary value.

I did confuse things because I talked about "pure" buyers as against grey buyers, which would signal I was making a value judgment. I shouldn't have done that because I've got no issue one way or the other in terms of what people do.

[willywatch]

A Rolex has become a kind of currency world wide.It might in the future get a price
drop in some countries,but it will increase in value in others.Buying certain wrist watches
is a great way of washing money,and Rolex are firmly at the top of the tree.Rolex will do
what they always do,make certain supply cannot meet demand.Buying a Rolex is just
as safe as buying a house.

[DoctorA]

Marketing has used human psychology to its favor!
The passion to the hobby aside, By nature we are competitive, we want to feel unique and special, and getting the “best”, “rarest”, “most beautiful”,......... call it whatever, it’s all rationalization for “winning a trophy”.......... so when this “trophy” loses its shine and becomes available at a discount for whoever wants it, there will be a large crowd turning away from the “hobby” because it’s no longer psychologically rewarding. Which will make more available for the true enthusiasts who I’d say a rare breed now and are not affected by all that’s happening now and won’t be affected by a 20% discount!

[PaulEvansLoafers]

Also,

While Covid has been a blow to the economy, truth is people who can afford luxury watches have been largely unaffected. I don’t mean everyone, but the overwhelming majority.

Just look at the numbers. Economic inequality has actually worsened during the pandemic. Stock market is at record highs, so 401ks are booming, personal investments, etc. And interest rates are at historically low levels. So borrowing is easier, investing is easier, refinancing is optimal.

Sad as it is, this crisis only affected those who are most vulnerable. Not only from a health standpoint, but economic as well.

Hope all of you are doing well. Happy holidays.


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[Pw92676]

Always appreciate reading other members (both respected and newer folks) thoughts on the subject.

Personally I expect all my watches to lose 100 percent of “monetary” value once purchased. They are mine and not for sale. If I don’t think something is a keeper long term, I just don’t buy.

So if value dropped 20, 50 or whatever percent on the secondary market, it wouldn’t affect me. If a watch appreciates, it’s a nice feeling but also doesn’t affect my decision. With the caveat of if something appreciates to point where I can sell it any buy a small vacation house somewhere exotic, but odds of that happening are nonexistent. My Daytona is mine not Paul Newman’s lol.

[Oyster Sauce]

Thanks everyone for your thoughtful and civil comments thus far; I've enjoyed hearing your paradigms and processes. Keep 'em coming!