what's your take on the current grey market prices

[Tricolore66]

I don’t understand all of this angst over making a buying decision. For me it’s pretty simple, if I feel like the watch is worth, to me, what I have to pay to get one then I buy it. MSRP, past pricing or future pricing have nothing to do with it. None of those things are in my control. If the price tanks but I thought it was worth what I paid for it, why would that matter? We’re not picking stocks here, they’re just watches. If future value is such a concern then it probably means you’re in over your head.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

I don’t understand all of this angst over making a buying decision. For me it’s pretty simple, if I feel like the watch is worth, to me, what I have to pay to get one then I buy it. MSRP, past pricing or future pricing have nothing to do with it. None of those things are in my control. If the price tanks but I thought it was worth what I paid for it, why would that matter? We’re not picking stocks here, they’re just watches. If future value is such a concern then it probably means you’re in over your head.

Just out of curiosity, and I promise I’m not being a smart ass, but did you actually read any of these peoples concerns? I don’t share their concerns because I can get any piece I want at retail but I totally understand where these people are coming from and their complaints. It seems to be a definite fact that some AD’s are back door selling all these watches directly to grey dealers. I don’t know why everybody wouldn’t find that to be a problem. At least true watch enthusiast I mean. People in it just for the money I’m sure have no problem with this and I get that but I totally understand why people that just want a Watch, a Rolex watch, are upset about where this has gone.

[Tricolore66]

There are literally hundreds of posts about this, so yes, I've read a bunch of them. How the grey dealers are getting their watches is a completely different subject, and of course there are hundreds of posts about that as well.

Value has nothing to do with price. Value is as subjective as there are people on this forum. I understand the concerns, even if I've been able to get my Daytonas, PP's, etc. at MSRP. I've also passed on watches at MSRP that were selling for multiples of that price, because it didn't have the value 'to me'.

There is no shortage of watches, only a shortage at a price. One just must decide whether the watch has the value to you at the price it's available TO YOU. When everything but stainless Daytona's were sitting in display cases and you could get 10% off on a new Submariner with the drop of a hat, nobody thought twice about the watch losing another 20% when you sized the bracelet and wore it for a week, but that's what happened. You paid market price and the market did what the market did. Nobody agonized over it, you either thought the watch was worth the money or you didn't.

I'm just mystified by why people who hate the "game" that exists in this hobby right now, choose to participate at all. I would hate to look at my wrist and be reminded that I paid way more for my watch than I thought it was really worth. It would take all the joy out of it.

Originally Posted by Patton250

Just out of curiosity, and I promise I’m not being a smart ass, but did you actually read any of these peoples concerns? I don’t share their concerns because I can get any piece I want at retail but I totally understand where these people are coming from and their complaints. It seems to be a definite fact that some AD’s are back door selling all these watches directly to grey dealers. I don’t know why everybody wouldn’t find that to be a problem. At least true watch enthusiast I mean. People in it just for the money I’m sure have no problem with this and I get that but I totally understand why people that just want a Watch, a Rolex watch, are upset about where this has gone.

[1995akcoop]

The watch is nice but it aint that damn nice


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[mikebike]

Originally Posted by Yellow5

All collectibles valuations are very high right now. I see a retrace on the really desirable models to retail + 25% over the course of the next two years, most of which will occur in the summer of 2022. The driver of the change will be diminished demand for collectibles as a whole. The lynchpin of the predicted downturn is a series of small upticks in the fed rate, the first of which will occur later this year. It is a rather specific scenario, but that’s my current best guess. Call me crazy.

^ This!! Completely agree. This will all come crashing down eventually. I know people will get defensive and disagree, but that’s exactly the hallmark of a bubble peak where everybody thinks we keep going up and contrarian views are few and made being fun of. I’m fairly confident there will be a time in the not so distant future when nobody will want a Rolex (and definitely not 50-100% over retail) when their retirement savings, meme stocks, and crypto are melting away.

[Bmats]

I think prices will fall too. But I have no idea when, and whether they are falling because it was a Rolex bubble or because everything is a bubble and lots of financial markets self-correct. I remember back a dozen years when everything was going great and then the recession hit. And housing markets collapsed. And then people who bought lots of luxury goods no longer were buying them. If the bubble bursts for that reason, grey prices may be the last thing we worry about (or at least some of us). If people are really buying watches as investments, I think they may be disappointed.

My non-point is that I feel the Rolex market makes no sense to me, but that’s really irrelevant. If I want something now, I have one option—buy over MSRP. If I can wait, then I can wait and see if I get of the AD list based on luck, past purchase history, etc. But I’m not going to buy something I don’t want.