Am I the only one who actually kind of likes this market?

[acheronsgrief]

Definitely don’t mind it. I’m not in it for an investment but it definitely has let me feel a lot better justifying how expensive this hobby can be when I can at least not take a huge hit on something I enjoy. Hope it’s here to stay to be honest.

I would like to be able to experience the watches more though, I do agree that dummy models in ADs would be great.

[rvanno]

I basically have what I want, so the market is fine with me. My only dilemma is whether to trade up to a platinum piece. I am getting close, but would have to liquidate all my pieces to do this. At this point, i think I'll stay put as I don't want to part with my Sub and YG DD.

I don't think I'm a one watch kind of guy.

[ArtNouveau]

The market doesn’t matter much to me. My SA/AD have sold me the three watches I have asked for, and with some patience the next one will come in too. I only buy watches I will wear, I have no desire to buy every model out there.

[Cigars&Watches]

I don’t mind the way things are. I don’t mind waiting my turn for the most precious pieces. Makes the hunt feel better, almost like you earned the watch not just because you have the funds for it. Also, love the exclusively the way things are frankly

[007timer]

There is a difference between the exclusivity feel and the complete lack of inventory. For someone who regularly bought a couple of watches a year and rotated through them, it’s extremely frustrating not being able to buy anything.

Those who can spend $200,000-$400,000 a year at Rolex get the priority of new incoming pieces. Spending $30-$50 a year is nothing when compared to others.


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[Dr. Robert]

I don’t like it. And I’m a Wilsdorf fanboy. Right now Rolex can kiss my caseback.

[scooba]

exclusivity ? you can go buy any model you want at any Grey Dealer you like . if thats exclusivity il be damned after buying Rolex Watches for 30 years I don't see them being exclusive every year they churn out more and by my guess work approx 20million more rolex have entered the market since i bought my first Rolex .

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by scooba

exclusivity ? you can go buy any model you want at any Grey Dealer you like . if thats exclusivity il be damned after buying Rolex Watches for 30 years I don't see them being exclusive every year they churn out more and by my guess work approx 20million more rolex have entered the market since i bought my first Rolex .

Agreed. I think too many people are confusing empty cases with exclusivity.

[pepe01]

It will be happy game if finally we get desired watch on time.

But for someome who want to buy Anniversary watch for his wife
and let's her have a good buying experience at a beautiful AD,
if they cannot get the desires watch at AD on time.

They have to buy with a lot mark-up price from gray markets
at other meeting points; Gas station, restaurant, watch repair shop, etc.
then bring a box of watch to surprise his wife at other places.

If they don't buy from gray markets, they have to buy other watches or other gifts.

[PBJ1925]

Not a fan as I cannot try on many pieces I have an interest in. Granted aesthetically I'm 95%+ certain I'll enjoy a watches appearance in person but its rather the level of comfort and how I feel the watch sits on my wrist does matter to me.

Only time aesthetically I'll flip flop is when I see the hue or color of a PM piece in person. (I'll blame my aging eyes).

[Wing-Co]

For me, it would not be fun paying market price over MRSP or having to buy something else to get what I want. I like watches and used to save up and spend a lot of time thinking about which model I'd get, visit AD try them one, go away think about it and finally once I was sure buy one. None of it done for an investment, just because I liked the watch. Now whilst I am sure a lot of folks like their watches at the moment this buying for an investment seems to be like buying shares prior to the Wall Street crash and might just all come tumbling down - history does repeat itself - 2021 is not the 1st time the British left Afghanistan in disarray!

[IamJacky]

I don't mind the market, it's definitely very interesting to witness such a phenomenon unfolding in such short span of time, which sparked lot of discussion and keeps visiting TRF interesting and entertaining.

[Harry-57]

The market is the market. You can like it or dislike it, it makes no difference.

The current market situation seems to generate greed, anger, envy and hate. This is detestable, but I don't blame the market.

[Cru Jones]

Not being able to buy a watch from an AD when you want to mark a special occasion is a bummer.

[Driver8]

For me there’s a limit to how much of a wait is part of the fun. A few months is “part of the chase”, but when you have guys waiting 4, 5, 6 years for something then the fun disappears.

That said, I’m personally not remotely bothered now as I’ve either already got the ones I want or they’re discontinued so I have to pay “market price” for those anyway! (Of course, if the AD situation was easier it’d help me with the price of discontinued pieces, but it is what it is).

[mikel]

“It is pleasant, when the sea is high and the winds are dashing the waves about, to watch from the shores the struggles of another.”


I would rather we were all on the shore...

[teck21]

Originally Posted by mikel

“It is pleasant, when the sea is high and the winds are dashing the waves about, to watch from the shores the struggles of another.”


I would rather we were all on the shore...

These are luxury goods.


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[S.Explorer]

It's fine as a current owner who got in before 2017 but Rolex could miss an entire generation of younger customers.

[telesquire]

To be honest I find it kind of sad, I bought my first Rolex in 1990 when I was 22. My local AD was an old family friend on the hight street in my town. I'd pass it almost each day as a child on the way to school and marvel at the small selection of pieces in the window. I knew when I could I would have one, I was watch obsessed from about four. The owner would often smile and say hello through the window as he put out the display in the morning whilst I was on my way to school. There was rarely more than two sports watches in there at once, usually a GMT or Sea Dweller.
When I could afford one I'd check in on my way to work waiting for the right one to appear, I never asked about availability because I knew from 10 years of observing that they would appear eventually. Yes you needed patience then. HOWEVER there were no grey internet dealers with 255 in stock, there was no ebay no Facebook marketplace, yes maybe some grey physical dealers existed and other side street watch stores who would dabble in the brand. There were also more AD's, seemed like one in every town/city.
Rolex appeared to be even more exclusive than it is now, you rarely saw people wearing them under the age of 50, stores never had more than a handful in stock for either gender.
When my time came I looked in the window one morning and there was the SS Sub date I'd been waiting for, I walked in tried it on and paid over a coffee. All good, as easy as that. After that I kept looking and bought more from the same shop. I'd p/x sometimes and other times not, building up a small collection rarely paying more than £2500 for a watch. It was fun and enjoyable. I'd window shop in other towns, you could pick up catalogs and price lists. Happy days.
The last I bought was in 2006, a YM it was a year old and just under £3000. I part exchanged a non date Sub and some cash....yes they weren't a big deal back then.
I've looked in from time to time at this forum and on the net, shaking my head at the greys with 200 plus new and used Rolex in stock at crazy inflated prices, there must over a thousand sports Rolex for sale in the UK at any one time. Madness. I don't blame the grey dealers, I actually worked with a guy who is now one and being nosy I looked up his company today and he's turning a handsome profit working from home with few overheads. It is a sad state of affairs though. The brand doesn't seem exclusive from where I sit. Yes, you might have these restrictive practices in place at the ever dwindling amount of AD's but elsewhere they are two a penny as they say. I almost feel this has cheapened the brand in some respects, I hope Rolex can get it back under control.

[1William]

I equate the current Rolex Market to the weather. We all have an opinion on it and are impacted by it. We speculate and discuss it but we have no real knowledge other than prior patterns and events. We all know that there will be a 10 year and 100 year storm at some point but we continue on. My favorite saying in these situations is, "It is what it is".

[kpeco]

I never purchased a Rolex before stock became so limited so I never got to experience "the good ole days". With that said, sure, it is a bit annoying that you can't see these watches in person, but it's not like I'm going to go spend a bunch of time in a jewelry store trying on watches anyway.

Frankly, the fact that you can't actually buy most of these watches is probably a good thing. You really shouldn't spend tens of thousands of dollars accumulating too many watches, which are completely superfluous. It's a bit of a "save me from myself" type of situation.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by kpeco

You really shouldn't spend tens of thousands of dollars accumulating too many watches, which are completely superfluous. It's a bit of a "save me from myself" type of situation.

Quite right. I am confident that my common sense and self control will put a brake on my watch passion, well before my collection hits three figures.

[Yobber76]

Originally Posted by kpeco

I never purchased a Rolex before stock became so limited so I never got to experience "the good ole days". With that said, sure, it is a bit annoying that you can't see these watches in person, but it's not like I'm going to go spend a bunch of time in a jewelry store trying on watches anyway.

Frankly, the fact that you can't actually buy most of these watches is probably a good thing. You really shouldn't spend tens of thousands of dollars accumulating too many watches, which are completely superfluous. It's a bit of a "save me from myself" type of situation.

I see the market this way also. I bought my Rolex watches from January 2018 to May 2019, before they became truly unobtainable at MSRP, though they were tough to get. It created an impulse reaction that justified the next buy. I stopped myself in 2020, and I don't think I will buy another Rolex, though I love the ones I have and where them daily.

[HL65]

As long as my AD keeps taking care of me I am fine with whatever the general market place is doing.

[FTX I]

Pros
1- Watches retain more value.
2- I can sell them for more than I paid.

Cons
1- I like to buy watches when I travel and I can't do that anymore.
2- I can't plan a purchase.
3- I can't try them at ADs
4- Safety is a bigger problem now than it was before.
5- A new audience came to the forum for questionable reasons.
6- Grey dealers have premiums instead of discount.
7- Artificial shortage - the product is available everywhere with markups.
8- A strange feeling of being deceived and disrespected.
9- Less fun on the hobby I always liked.

Based on that and considering I'm not interested in making money with watches, I just buy them for my own pleasure, to wear and enjoy, I think the new market is much worse than it was just a few years ago unfortunately. However, I don't complain. It is what it is.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Pros
1- Watches retain more value.
2- I can sell them for more than I paid.

Cons
1- I like to buy watches when I travel and I can't do that anymore.
2- I can't plan a purchase.
3- I can't try them at ADs
4- Safety is a bigger problem now than it was before.
5- A new audience came to the forum for questionable reasons.
6- Grey dealers have premiums instead of discount.
7- Artificial shortage - the product is available everywhere with markups.
8- A strange feeling of being deceived and disrespected.
9- Less fun on the hobby I always liked.

Based on that and considering I'm not interested in making money with watches, I just buy them for my own pleasure, to wear and enjoy, I think the new market is much worse than it was just a few years ago unfortunately. However, I don't complain. It is what it is.

I agree with most of your points; however, #7, there really isn’t a shortage. Rolex production isn’t all that much below pre-COVID levels, at least my AD is ok with his allocations. It’s just that availability has shifted to the grey market, and demand has skyrocketed.

I can’t believe the quantity of watches in the hands of grey dealers is the result of individual flippers

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Jack T

I agree with most of your points; however, #7, there really isn’t a shortage.

I don't think that is the case. To me, it is analogous to a new Playstation coming out. There is a finite quantity produced, and way more people who want them, so every store is sold out. Yet at any moment you can get on ebay and find them at greatly inflated prices. When people see 25 Playstation listings, or 25 Daytonas on gray sites, they equate this with there being "plenty of supply" but I completely disagree. Those prices are driven so high as to reduce the sale of the very limited quantity to a trickle. They do sell still, but 99.9% of the potential market is out of the game price-wise.

I don't see how it is any different with Rolex. The idea that there are enough Subs/GMTs/Daytonas produced for everybody who wants one, but they are simply sitting at grays, seems completely wrong. When Sony ramps up production and initial demand dies down, every Walmart once again has them and nobody is wasting their time trying to flip on ebay. The "problem" with the Rolex game is that Rolex won't up production, and the internet keeps the demand from dying down so we're locked in the "Playstation release day" phase indefinitely.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

I don't think that is the case. To me, it is analogous to a new Playstation coming out. There is a finite quantity produced, and way more people who want them, so every store is sold out. Yet at any moment you can get on ebay and find them at greatly inflated prices. When people see 25 Playstation listings, or 25 Daytonas on gray sites, they equate this with there being "plenty of supply" but I completely disagree. Those prices are driven so high as to reduce the sale of the very limited quantity to a trickle. They do sell still, but 99.9% of the potential market is out of the game price-wise.

I don't see how it is any different with Rolex. The idea that there are enough Subs/GMTs/Daytonas produced for everybody who wants one, but they are simply sitting at grays, seems completely wrong. When Sony ramps up production and initial demand dies down, every Walmart once again has them and nobody is wasting their time trying to flip on ebay. The "problem" with the Rolex game is that Rolex won't up production, and the internet keeps the demand from dying down so we're locked in the "Playstation release day" phase indefinitely.

Ok, I buy your analogy, I should have been more clear. If the numbers cited here are to be believed, Rolex production in 2020 went down 20% or so from 2019, roughly 140,000 watches. By now they should be close to 2019 levels, say they’re down 40,000 watches from 2019; still up 100,000 over 2020.

The only explanation for the soaring prices in the grey market is the surging, skyrocketing demand, far above 2019 levels. And the AD’s are parceling out the few they supposedly have, the grey’s are flush with product at 60% to 150% over MSRP. That shift in available product can not, in my opinion be the result only of individual flippers.

Personally, I’m not out of sorts; I have what I want and a great relationship with my AD. The only real obstacle for me isn’t availability, it affordability!

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Jack T

The only explanation for the soaring prices in the grey market is the surging, skyrocketing demand, far above 2019 levels. And the AD’s are parceling out the few they supposedly have, the grey’s are flush with product at 60% to 150% over MSRP. That shift in available product can not, in my opinion be the result only of individual flippers.

I think you are right, no disagreement there. It does "feel" like the flow is steady enough that it has to be more of a coordinated operation. That said, I've seen posts even on here about people who have "a friend" that gets one watch after another from an AD and flips them all. So there is likely a level in between the "AD selling large quantities to gray" and the "individual selling one watch to gray" scenarios.


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[NachoNeal]

I don't like this market. Personally I would prefer to be able to walk into a AD and buy what I want, when I want.
Would it discourage some of the yahoos from wanting to purchase a rolex, just because they would be available? Maybe.
But I wouldn't care.