AD said years…

[HideMyWalletPlease]

Oh yeah! Well if you refuse to sell me a watch for the next several years or probably ever, then I’ll just take my business elsewhere!

(Crickets chirping)

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Nice purple and maroon "Pepsi". But hey, at least the ugly colors will look that way forever

Come on Jeff.
The ceramic colours vary depending on the lighting. The Burple is nice in it's own way and is contemporary and the pink/red is similarly nice too

For the record, I like the iridescence of the Aluminium inserts and the luxurious nature of the Ceramic inserts.
Would I buy either? No.

[StevenMichael]

I hear you but it’s too extreme. Nobody is asking to flood the market. But completely empty display cases is extreme. Especially for this long. Again, this happened too quick and way before any pandemic. Did the demand increase since 2017? Sure. Probably. But things just don’t line up. It’s uncharacteristic of a company. But what do I know. I am just trying to buy a watch.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by Kelvin Knight

The psychology of it is more interesting than the microeconomics. Half of their customers are exploiting and manipulating them, while the other half throw an entitlement fueled temper tantrum… and we’re still busy pontificating? It’s more than microcosmic at this point and has become darkly humorous.

True enough

[Kelvin Knight]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

I hear you but it’s too extreme. Nobody is asking to flood the market. But completely empty display cases is extreme. Especially for this long. Again, this happened too quick and way before any pandemic. Did the demand increase since 2017? Sure. Probably. But things just don’t line up. It’s uncharacteristic of a company. But what do I know. I am just trying to buy a watch.

I hear you man. I would love to buy a watch or two myself. Companies are putting on a clinic manipulating the science in consumer behavior and we’ve been washed out in the riptide of every angle of attack, by every party involved. It’s phenomenal.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

I hear you but it’s too extreme. Nobody is asking to flood the market. But completely empty display cases is extreme. Especially for this long. Again, this happened too quick and way before any pandemic. Did the demand increase since 2017? Sure. Probably. But things just don’t line up. It’s uncharacteristic of a company. But what do I know. I am just trying to buy a watch.

The last i heard a couple of years ago, was that Rolex were running 2 shifts.
Recently I hear they are working around the clock.
Against the backdrop of disruptions around C19 and I imagine Rolex have crossed the critical threshold and that's not taking into account any aspect of the current market.

Now Rolex are building another new factory if the source of the pics is correct. Apparently Rolex don't anticipate the new factory to produce anything until early 2023.

[StevenMichael]

But Rolex voluntarily chose to start limiting supply in 2018. Like clockwork.

[xrole]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

But Rolex voluntarily chose to start limiting supply in 2018. Like clockwork.

Do you please have a link to documented evidence that they voluntarily started to start limiting production in 2018? I would be interested to read where they said that they would do that voluntarily specifically starting in 2018.

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

But Rolex voluntarily chose to start limiting supply in 2018. Like clockwork.

How do you know this? That’s conspiracy has been making the rounds for some time now but unfortunately no one has yet provided proof that they are limiting supply. Hopefully you can?

- it’s one thing to say they are not meeting demand. That’s correct, because they are not. However, several posters (and Rolex themselves) have said they will not widely ramp up production.
- It’s one thing to say Covid impacted supply. That’s correct, because for a while there was no production happening. But you mentioned 2018 and thus covid-related impacts do not count.
- it is also clear that demand has significantly increased.
- That’s correct, and an easy way to tell is the number of new buyers coming to the brand and approaching ADs with (actual) printed lists of watches they would want (including offers of spending ‘$3,000 on a shopping spree’’ to hopefully accelerate the process of getting a white dial Daytona ….).
- With all the liquidity in the market there was a rush to SS Professional Rolexes, then TT Professionals, then SS any, then PM, and now I think only the Cellinis are easily available.
- Same thing happening to Patek where SS Nautilus are going for over 3 times list.
- I remember as recently as 2017/18 getting from AD a BLNR, LVc, and black-dial Daytona. No purchase history beyond being a good human and not wasting my time in big city ADs. Now even the small city ADs are dry due to demand (with constants calls from even different countries).
- This is also around the same time where Gray Market dealers stopped being avenues for watch enthusiasts to buy watches at a discount and transitioned into celebrities in their own right (with the most recent evolution of that being many of them having hour long YouTube shows). Where they show on Instagram cases full of Daytonas and BLROs. Where you can get any Rolex or Patek or AP you want …but from grays and at an exorbitant markup. There’s actually a LOT of supply …if you’re willing to pay. You can get a blue-face Rolex SkyDweller and a Patek 5711 by this Friday if you want.

But an increase in demand, or not meeting demand (Rolex would be stupid to significantly raise supply once you realize they’re selling mechanical watches, which have been obsolete for decades now), is not the same as ‘Rolex limiting supply.’

So, I’m curious how Rolex started to limit supply in 2018. It would be great to finally get some proof of this considering how prevalent the rumor has been.

[JonaG]

Rolex are killing it, kudos to them. Until I want my next piece!

[xrole]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

How do you know this? That’s conspiracy has been making the rounds for some time now but unfortunately no one has yet provided proof that they are limiting supply. Hopefully you can?

This guy StevenMichael is basically pissed that he can't get a watch (as many people are) so is now making multiple posts complaining about how its all a big conspiracy to deny him a watch.

Rolex have freely started that they ARE limited to a production of around 1 million watches a year but this is due to the fact that the hand-assembly and very strict quality control limit the output. That is not the same as "purposefully limiting production" simply to spite everyone.

[Fleetlord]

I remember the "it takes a year to make a Rolex" spiel was generally accepted on the forums to be a gross embellishment and a salesman tactic to close deals. I guess this consensus of opinion about that has changed ?

[xrole]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I remember the "it takes a year to make a Rolex" spiel was generally accepted on the forums to be a gross embellishment and a salesman tactic to close deals. I guess this consensus of opinion about that has changed ?

It would make no sense for it to take a year to make a Rolex with modern day production techniques and this article goes into why https://millenarywatches.com/how-lon...to-make-rolex/

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

There is no crazy demand and different than before. At least I don’t believe so. In 2017 every dealer in Los Angeles was overflowing with nearly every model. Now zero? Demand never changed that much.

not sure its simple demand. Dealers have inventory they are forced to sell well below the open market price and have become pretty open about demanding other business in exchange for the elusive Rolex watch. Which leads one to suspect that many are choosing to unload inventory directly to grey dealers for the ease of commerce or perhaps a premium above MSRP. I think its at least possible (if not probable) that supply is also being strangled once in the distribution network

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by xrole

It would make no sense for it to take a year to make a Rolex with modern day production techniques and this article goes into why https://millenarywatches.com/how-lon...to-make-rolex/

Even with the hand assembly??!!!!!

[RealMadrid1988]

I think what’s interesting here, too, is that a good chunk of those newly interested in Rolex are interested *because* of the difficulty in acquiring the watches. I think it’s silly to chase specific references simply because they are hard to acquire, but I can’t deny that I appreciate the general scarcity on some level because (1) it makes it easier to space out my purchases, (2) it makes me appreciate a watch more when I have to wait for it and it isn’t readily available at the AD and (3) it gives me some comfort that the watch isn’t suddenly worth zero the second I walk out the door with it.

All in all, I’m OK with the current climate. I do think Rolex should ramp up production on certain models — maybe the Datejust and Oyster Perpetual — to satisfy demand for those who have saved and simply want *a* Rolex, while leaving some of the other models still difficult to obtain.

[gold&black]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

They essentially don’t want new customers for these pieces.
Their waiting times are enough with their VIPs/preferred customers

This 100%

[ganiccus]

Rolex supply has been limited since the pandemic, but I very much doubt it is by design. Production has been on a halt because of the lockdowns, staff going on quarantine and so on.

And I would not be surprised if they have issues right now sourcing raw materials from their third party sources they are dealing with, we know Rolex is not manufacturing every single part from scratch for cost reasons. I think we all have experienced this to some extent in our field of work as well, no reason for me to believe a watchmaking company as huge as Rolex was immune to this. Meanwhile the demand for their products has risen steadily and we have all the ingredients that created this madness.

[gold&black]

Originally Posted by Stewart_88

I registered my interest for a BLRO last September and was told 3 years. I have recently been told I can expect it beginning of the year. Purchase history was my airking

AD 2 who I got DJ and jewellery from is still saying within 3-5 years

Good luck, you would be one of the lucky ones to get it so quickly with an airking as history

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

So this will be a case study in microeconomics. The first company ever who doesn’t want to make more money off the increased demand. No desire to grow. Interesting business model.

Same as Patek, Hermes, Ferrari, etc.

Production of these items is not dictated by the number of fanboys that suddenly decide to want the next item they saw on Instagram, it’s based on craftsmanship and capacity (restrictions).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by scombs263

Steven, LA sucks. Years is about right unless u spend a lot and buy BS jewelry. Too many people here looking for same things. Those in smaller states with family owned ADs have better luck. Unfortunately grey market is the only way at the moment for most in heavily populated areas.

Yup, and by the time you do all that and play the waiting time you could have just gone grey..

[zion_rasta]

I am happy with Panerai. Let’s be honest, if these Rolex sports models were not hyped up, no one would dying to get them. I remember in 2008 they were giving Pepsi’s away even with the 3186 transition movement for the aluminum bezel ones.

Time to move on away from Rolex.

[doboy007]

Originally Posted by zion_rasta

I am happy with Panerai. Let’s be honest, if these Rolex sports models were not hyped up, no one would dying to get them. I remember in 2008 they were giving Pepsi’s away even with the 3186 transition movement for the aluminum bezel ones.

Time to move on away from Rolex.

Yeah, no one. Dream on, haha.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by StevenMichael

There is no crazy demand and different than before. At least I don’t believe so. In 2017 every dealer in Los Angeles was overflowing with nearly every model. Now zero? Demand never changed that much.

So true. This is a supply issue and has been since late summer of 2017. All the ADs say they are getting nothing compared to a few years ago. And, how many ADs around the world were booted, yet cases all over the world are empty. Wow, the demand for 31 TT DJ is through the roof. There was a time when there was at least three Rolex ADs in any nicer mall in America. As soon as they sold a Sub, another turned up almost immediately. ADs now say they might get 4 to 6 SS Subs total for the year and some way less. The lack of supply is feeding a demand driven in large part on return on investment. Take those buyers out and return to supply to early 2017 levels cases will fill up.

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

All the ADs say they are getting nothing compared to a few years ago.

Not true. According to this AD, Rolex is sending more watches than ever.

https://www.tiktok.com/@mrgreensub/v...46812779810053

[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

So true. This is a supply issue and has been since late summer of 2017. All the ADs say they are getting nothing compared to a few years ago. And, how many ADs around the world were booted, yet cases all over the world are empty. Wow, the demand for 31 TT DJ is through the roof. There was a time when there was at least three Rolex ADs in any nicer mall in America. As soon as they sold a Sub, another turned up almost immediately. ADs now say they might get 4 to 6 SS Subs total for the year and some way less. The lack of supply is feeding a demand driven in large part on return on investment. Take those buyers out and return to supply to early 2017 levels cases will fill up.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if an AD tells you they are only getting 4 submariners per year, they are lying to you.