Just had a disheartening talk with my AD

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

I don't know about the rest of this argument, but it was irrefutably documented that Hong Kong ADS were selling directly to grey dealers, and I personally witnessed with my own eyeballs the same happening in an AD in Windsor, UK about 4 years ago. So ADS categorically DO sell directly to greys.

Best

James

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People don’t want to hear that lol. There was a law suit here in the states that quickly went away, because we all know what was going on.

I mean some of it is AD using the SS to reward customers. I recall picking up my Daytona at a major AD in Pennsylvania and getting it sized and they are giving several other customers the spiel about scarcity and the like. My Daytona never got the case. They called me, had dozens of inquiries in the day or so it took me to go and pick it up, and those folks were turned away. Same with my brother, he waltzed into the AD got his BLNR meanwhile they are giving some poor chap the business about how rare it is. The AD’s are also playing into this as well. This strategy has been used by other high end brands as well and is documented.


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[jamesthejeweller]

Originally Posted by Chester01

People don’t want to hear that lol. There was a law suit here in the states that quickly went away, because we all know what was going on.

I mean some of it is AD using the SS to reward customers. I recall picking up my Daytona at a major AD in Pennsylvania and getting it sized and they are giving several other customers the spiel about scarcity and the like. My Daytona never got the case. They called me, had dozens of inquiries in the day or so it took me to go and pick it up, and those folks were turned away. Same with my brother, he waltzed into the AD got his BLNR meanwhile they are giving some poor chap the business about how rare it is. The AD’s are also playing into this as well. This strategy has been used by other high end brands as well and is documented.


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Yeah the legal wrangles get hushed up pretty quickly, and 'the script' is something that is funny to witness when you're on the inside, but it must be infuriating when you're on the receiving end of it.

The fact remains, we're all addicts whether it's addiction to the appreciation of the craftsmanship of mechanical watches or addiction to capital gain, it's all the same and we go 'cap in hand' to beg for a fix. The first step in recovery from addiction is acknowledging you have a problem

Happy Hunting

J

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Huh? Where are you getting 380 AD’s in the world from? There 28 just in Texas, well over 100 just in the US. And people post here from all over the world discussing the multiple dealers in the region. Your math is way off.

I mean I’ll go back in and double check, I did this a while ago. But even if there are say 500 or 1000 worldwide. That means the shelves should not be empty at 900k Rolex per year. What it does mean is they are never hitting the shelves and staying in the safes. I have witnessed that first hand. I walked in and collected my Daytona and my brother his GMT meanwhile nothing on shelves and they tell the walks in well we will put you on the list. Meanwhile they called me and asked me if I wanted the 116500 which I declined. There is slight of hand going on here and it’s being done in the open.


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[novae500]

For the amount of SS models in Grey market, its obvious some ADs are selling them with some incentives ($$$$ to SA) and not to new customers or current customers.

If you could get a few thousand for each SS model you sell backdoor, would you do it?? Even 3-4 you sell this way, $$ adds up in your pocket very quickly. Thats easy tax free $$ for some folks. End of the day, cash is king.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

I personally witnessed with my own eyeballs the same happening in an AD in Windsor, UK about 4 years ago. So ADS categorically DO sell directly to greys.

I think it's no bad thing to share this type of information and to name the ADs. There is so much disgust expressed on this subject that people who feel strongly about it should know who is doing it, and should boycott these ADs.

More opportunity for the rest of us. Who knows, maybe all ADs are doing it to some extent, what with being in the watch trade and all? If there was actually something illegal going on it would be a different matter. And of course, these shops would no longer be ADs.

[Tricolore66]

Agree. There are some fantastic PP complications that you can buy for 20-30% back of MSRP right now. I’m thinking about cashing some of my Rolex’s to buy a 5320G.

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

Yeah, its the way everything is right now dude, I'd recommend buying Patek grand comps, they're readily available, more complex and a better bang for your buck.

When the RM bubble bursts it may take stainless sports with it, so diversify as best you can!

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[gerry100]

where is my Kleenex?

[jaySL350]

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

I don't know about the rest of this argument, but it was irrefutably documented that Hong Kong ADS were selling directly to grey dealers, and I personally witnessed with my own eyeballs the same happening in an AD in Windsor, UK about 4 years ago. So ADS categorically DO sell directly to greys.

Best

James

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James,,,,
I’m I thinking of the small family owned AD in Windsor that closed a few years back?,

[jamesthejeweller]

Originally Posted by jaySL350

James,,,,
I’m I thinking of the small family owned AD in Windsor that closed a few years back?,

I can neither confirm nor deny

[jaySL350]

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

I can neither confirm nor deny

Thank you James,,,
Small place Windsor :cheers,,,

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol "Reasonably upfront", while watches going out the back lol. Someone is fueling the gray market and everyone thinks well now, thats not my AD! Well lets do some math. There are only 380 AD in the entire WORLD. 900k rolex goes to the 380 AD per year and that should be about 2368 rolex per AD per year. Now, everyone says empty cases. Now if there were a shortage, (scratching head sarcastically) wouldn't the gray market also be having issues sourcing Rolex?

They were reasonably up front in that they said it wasn't happening.

With respect to the gray market, we do not know the number of new, unworn Rolexes that wind up there relative to total production numbers of 900k, and we don't know the mechanism in which they get there.

I would think you could potentially net more selling a Daytona at 'MSRP' than you could on the secondary market, especially if you are selling a wide range of jewelry and you have customers who routinely buy jewelry from you?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Gab27

They were reasonably up front in that they said it wasn't happening.

With respect to the gray market, we do not know the number of new, unworn Rolexes that wind up there relative to total production numbers of 900k, and we don't know the mechanism in which they get there.

I would think you could potentially net more selling a Daytona at 'MSRP' than you could on the secondary market, especially if you are selling a wide range of jewelry and you have customers who routinely buy jewelry from you?

That’s an interesting question and one I have been asking for quite some time, what is the function of the gray market in this watch economy. It’s not a parasitic one, where the gray wins and AD gets nothing. It’s a reciprocal one. Now I fully admit being a bit conspiratorial here. But it may suggest all is not healthy with the watch market. If the AD’s were moving so much product and they are all each model flying off the shelves, why not just sell first come first serve? We all know that’s not the case. The AD can get the gray to buy up stock that’s moving more slowly giving them consistent income and basically extort buyers to buy watches and items they don’t want, driving up their profit, creating a demand via false scarcity that fuels itself.


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[alphadweller]

Remember, it's only a watch.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Chester01

If the AD’s were moving so much product and they are all each model flying off the shelves, why not just sell first come first serve? We all know that’s not the case.

Because any AD with any common sense takes care of their best customers first to stay prepared for the times when product isn’t flying off the shelves and loyal customers are needed.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by teck21

Because any AD with any common sense takes care of their best customers first to stay prepared for the times when product isn’t flying off the shelves and loyal customers are needed.


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Joe gray dealer is their best customer.


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[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

They have plenty of watches, just not for you. Time to change AD.

This is so true. What is coming in is not being put out but put in the safe and then sold to whom the AD carefully selects who will maximize the long term return to the store. As said, its really not personal, just business in weird times.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol "Reasonably upfront", while watches going out the back lol. Someone is fueling the gray market and everyone thinks well now, thats not my AD! Well lets do some math. There are only 380 AD in the entire WORLD. 900k rolex goes to the 380 AD per year and that should be about 2368 rolex per AD per year. Now, everyone says empty cases. Now if there were a shortage, (scratching head sarcastically) wouldn't the gray market also be having issues sourcing Rolex?

ADs never got 2368 watches per year. Even in good old times I suspect total deliveries to a big AD were between 15 to 20 a month. The difference is there was weak demand back then so the AD cases remained full with many watches several years old un-sold. If the display cases sold out world wide, as they are now, Rolex at no time could not have filled them back up by supplying watches. The demand component has to scale dramatically back for cases to refill completely.

[spacemanvt]

worst situation ever

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by jgottsman11

Regardless of this being common knowledge, it just hurts when the message is directed at you

I reached out to say hello and remind them of my interest in a Rolex sports model or Patek Aquanaut. The response was "the watches are non existent right now and we have long wait lists. With the current shortages please understand it will not be any time soon". Ouch

Carry on

If you requested “ a Rolex sport model” and not a specific model, you’re not even on a list. Following that up with an aquanaut request, your name went directly in the garbage unless you have a previous history. If you’re buying things from that AD, i would get specific on what exactly you want. Without that history, i wouldn’t expect either and the aquanaut is certainly out. You’re just wearing your breath each and every time you call.


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[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

ADs never got 2368 watches per year. Even in good old times I suspect total deliveries to a big AD were between 15 to 20 a month. The difference is there was weak demand back then so the AD cases remained full with many watches several years old un-sold. If the display cases sold out world wide, as they are now, Rolex at no time could not have filled them back up by supplying watches. The demand component has to scale dramatically back for cases to refill completely.

Respectfully, your math is off too. All AD’s are not created equal. Anecdotally, at least in the US and probably worldwide, there are as many as four tiers of dealers. My Boutique AD is at the highest level and has a “floor plan” bogey of 275 pieces meaning in good times they would go through at least most of those each month. When I received my SS Daytona in 2019 my SA said they were allocated 30 for the year, I’m sure Datejusts and Subs in much higher numbers.
I’m sure they got less in 2020 because of the factory shutdown but as far as I know they’re back to full stock this year, it’s just all selling out in advance.
I’m sure there are/were some lower tier AD’s getting 15-20 watches a month but those are the ones whose days are numbered, RolexUSA is moving towards less but bigger dealers.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

ADs never got 2368 watches per year. Even in good old times I suspect total deliveries to a big AD were between 15 to 20 a month. The difference is there was weak demand back then so the AD cases remained full with many watches several years old un-sold. If the display cases sold out world wide, as they are now, Rolex at no time could not have filled them back up by supplying watches. The demand component has to scale dramatically back for cases to refill completely.

There is demand alright like there is demand for GameStop shares. Very similar here. New You tubers every day, new gray deals every day looking to make a buck, many trading these around amongst themselves. Wouldn’t surprise me if there is less demand now than the the old days among “Joe public” and far greater demands by gray and speculators. Think it can’t happen, look at GameStop.


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[daOnlyBG]

I know this will irk a lot of people here and that's fine- I understand how ridiculous this has gotten, but hey, so has the difference between market prices and the list price. Anything goes.

Try responding to your AD: "OK, I understand- it's a shame, I was hoping to tip the salesman $500 in time for the holidays."

Worst case scenario? Nothing. If they don't want to sell to you in the present, the future potential of the sale looks bleak.

The best case scenario? The thought of them getting a tip eats them apart on the inside and you get a call informing you of a "surprise delivery."

Just a hunch... based on previous experience.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by Chester01

That’s an interesting question and one I have been asking for quite some time, what is the function of the gray market in this watch economy. It’s not a parasitic one, where the gray wins and AD gets nothing. It’s a reciprocal one. Now I fully admit being a bit conspiratorial here. But it may suggest all is not healthy with the watch market. If the AD’s were moving so much product and they are all each model flying off the shelves, why not just sell first come first serve? We all know that’s not the case. The AD can get the gray to buy up stock that’s moving more slowly giving them consistent income and basically extort buyers to buy watches and items they don’t want, driving up their profit, creating a demand via false scarcity that fuels itself.


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The reason they won't sell first-come, first-serve is IMHO because they can net so much more selling them in a strategic manner from sales that qualify/accompany the sale of the Rolex.

If I got a guy a who buys say $35,000 of jewelry each year for his wife at my store, and we have a 10+ year relationship, and he is constantly introducing me to new customers to build a financial relationship with, and one day he tells me he wants a Daytona, it makes reasonable financial sense to ensure I get him a Daytona faster than anyone else will (even if that means less valuable customers have to wait longer as a result of me choosing to sell to him.)

Alternatively, if someone comes in and says they want to buy a Daytona and $75,000 worth of diamonds, it also might make sense to prioritize selling a Daytona here.

I believe that ADs are a strong driver of the secondary market, not necessarily as a result of them selling directly to secondary dealers, but because you generally can't just buy a high-demand Rolex at MSRP. You need to have more business worth (or a "relationship", which generally is measured by the American dollar) with a dealer.

In terms of the function of the secondary market, I would think it's still filling the role of any secondary market, which is the ability to get a product that someone cannot or will not purchase from a direct sales channel? As much as people complain about the price of Daytonas, in most instances, the price of a Daytona from a secondary dealer is probably still less than the "price" of getting it from an AD.

It is definitely a very fascinating situation to observe.

[JD121]

With only one purchase of an explorer 39 at my local AD, I was able to get an OP41 Yellow dial a few months ago. Me advice is you have to go into an AD, become friendly with one sales rep and then explain specifically why you need a particular watch on your wrist, get creative. These AD's like helping and meeting customer needs I feel as this strategy has worked for me for both purchases.