Fun State of the Industry Data - Looks like Gold is King Again

[macrowatch]

From Oct Swiss Export Report via Robb's Report:

"In the month of October, exports totaled an eye-popping CHF 2.1 billion (approximately $2.26 billion at current exchange), which is the highest monthly figure in seven years. For context, that’s an increase of 12.5 percent year-on-year, as well as a 4.8 percent jump from October 2019.

According to the FHS, the increase was driven mainly by demand for high-end timepieces crafted from precious metals. Exports in this category—that is, watches priced over $3,200—saw double-digit growth both in value and the number of items exported."

"The figures also showed that the burgeoning US market snapped up the majority of the timepieces. The country claimed 14.5 percent of Swiss exports for October, which equates to more than $330 million worth of watches. The Chinese market experienced growth, too, nabbing a 12.6 percent share of the exports or roughly $289 million worth of timepieces."

So maybe all those steel subs are nary to be seen since they are now gold subs!

[Moka-Tiger]

And nary any SS Datonas and GMTs too. Ha ha. I do believe a new trend is happening. The prices of DDs these days are as nuts as the SS Daytonas. But at least one is buying PM instead of SS, which should make more sense for the prices. I trampled the streets looking for a YG DD, going to 5 Rolex boutiques and that was a sad joke, although the SAs were all super friendly. Then I searched like crazy online at grays and found one on Monday that was indeed a "bargain", relatively speaking. So I went to the store on Monday and put it on hold. I went in today to seal the deal. In the meantime, the SA said that the store on Wednesday (2 days after I went) raised the prices on all 3 of the DD 40 watches in stock by $3,000, so I got in the door just in time.

[rambo99]

because all ss models has risen to double or even triple over the msrp, suddenly people find out buying gold watches is a bargain!

[Koolpep]

Important to note that the FHS prices are export value - so wholesale price of these watches.

The entire statistics can be found on the FHS website.


October numbers:
https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getsta...m_211010_a.pdf

All stats:

https://www.fhs.swiss/eng/statistics.html

Footnote:

All the figures released by FH refer to exports data and not to sales to end-consumers. Differences between these two types of data may therefore exist. These data must be regarded as consolidated figures gathering export results from all Swiss watch companies. They obviously cannot reflect the individual results of one particular company or group of companies, knowing that business activity may greatly vary from one to the other. The data can be subsequently revised or adjusted. The most recent publications prevail.

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

From Oct Swiss Export Report via Robb's Report:

"In the month of October, exports totaled an eye-popping CHF 2.1 billion (approximately $2.26 billion at current exchange), which is the highest monthly figure in seven years. For context, that’s an increase of 12.5 percent year-on-year, as well as a 4.8 percent jump from October 2019.

According to the FHS, the increase was driven mainly by demand for high-end timepieces crafted from precious metals. Exports in this category—that is, watches priced over $3,200—saw double-digit growth both in value and the number of items exported."

"The figures also showed that the burgeoning US market snapped up the majority of the timepieces. The country claimed 14.5 percent of Swiss exports for October, which equates to more than $330 million worth of watches. The Chinese market experienced growth, too, nabbing a 12.6 percent share of the exports or roughly $289 million worth of timepieces."

So maybe all those steel subs are nary to be seen since they are now gold subs!

Just to make sure. These numbers from FHS are export values NOT retail price. Not sure if Robb report read the foot note.

FHS only tracks the export value - the price the ADs pay for the watches.

So watches priced $3,200 in the FHS stats are probably retailing at $5-6k

Cheers!

[Koolpep]

Also interesting that China + Hongkong + Singapore = 563.9 Million CHF air about $608 Million of exports….

Europe accounted for 377 million CHF (only top 30 countries in the list) equals $427 million of exports….

Interesting to see where the biggest markets are nowadays….for the Swiss watch industry….

Japan with “only” 125 million people population got exports worth 147.9 Million CHF about $160 million Crazy stuff….

Again retail price is probably slightly less than double these numbers….

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

Also interesting that China + Hongkong + Singapore = 563.9 Million CHF air about $608 Million of exports….

Europe accounted for 377 million CHF (only top 30 countries in the list) equals $427 million of exports….

Interesting to see where the biggest markets are nowadays….for the Swiss watch industry….

Japan with “only” 125 million people population got exports worth 147.9 Million CHF about $160 million Crazy stuff….

Again retail price is probably slightly less than double these numbers….

Great translation of the number Koolpep. I just assume the TRF community is filled with smart people and already know what you have pointed out.

For me the take away is either the strategy of steel allocation to sell more gold watches is coming to fruition, or in a hot consumer economy, gold is more desirable as a status item for the consumer, or of course both. I also think it's interesting as a completely different point that LV is thinking of opening up it's first duty free store in Hainan partly to address the lack of international Chinese travel, which I think these numbers reflect as well in the Europe/China export data.

@moka-tiger, so true! I recently visited two AD's, and no DD of any kind in sight.

[Moka-Tiger]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

@moka-tiger, so true! I recently visited two AD's, and no DD of any kind in sight.

1 boutique had 1 DD 40 in stock (PG with chocolate dial) and another had 3 in fact, but OMG DIAMONDS and more diamonds! One was WG with the silver diagonal motif that is truly beautiful. It's a shame that the watch had all those big diamonds around the bezel and worse, a HUGE price too.

That silver diagonal motif dial is amazing and the one (no diamonds) I was lucky to get on hold on Monday before the price went up on Wednesday.

And while I sound like a "no diamonds" guy, I really like diamond indices, but don't on the bezel and lugs.

I wonder if the PM trend will continue? It probably will, along with continued demand for SS watches.

[RolexRon456]

I would not be surprised if iced out Rolex’s are the new hot item in 6-12 months. As PM becomes more common, people may want to step up their game.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Moka-Tiger

I went in today to seal the deal. In the meantime, the SA said that the store on Wednesday (2 days after I went) raised the prices on all 3 of the DD 40 watches in stock by $3,000, so I got in the door just in time.

Wow, that sucks. Hard to believe there are THAT many buyers for a $40k watch with no sports and no steel.

[Swiss Mad!]

Originally Posted by rambo99

because all ss models has risen to double or even triple over the msrp, suddenly people find out buying gold watches is a bargain!

HaHa - that analorgy reminds me of the Rolls Royce business model.

RR don't exhibit at normal car shows any more because sitting a £200k+ car next to a family Ford sedan makes them look very expensive.

They now prefer to exhibit at Air shows & Yacht fairs as compared to a £50million Yacht or £10million Jet, their cars look like chump change...

[enjoythemusic]

That's great news