Could Rolex prices come over all Bitcoin?

[marmite2005]

With Rolex mania in full swing over the past 4 years, could the tide the turn as quickly as Crypto price mania?

One minute bitcoin is going to 100k, next minute its falling and cant hold 40k, 38, 36k......with everyone selling.

Could the new money drain from watches as quick, no one needs a watch, everyone has a smart phone. As soon as the market understands that, surely the inflated prices could collapse? Good news for WIS

[Sadplant]

Mechanical watches have been “obsolete” for what, 50 years now? You’re thinking very small picture.

[Bmats]

I don’t think watch prices are linked to Crypto. It’s a lot of things, including the free money that has been fueling the economy over the past few years. That said, if there is an overall correction of worse in the financial markets — we’re down over 10 percent this year in Nasdaq — then one might see things stabilizing or going down. But last time there was a big bubble bursting was 08 and it wasn’t just people in the real estate and stock markets that got hurt. Lots of people did. So it might be that one can buy that piece at the AD but that person can’t afford it anymore because they’re worried about other things instead.

[DRS Enabled]

Short answer, no.

Bitcoin fell from a peak of $66k last November to $38k as of Friday. The NASDAQ is also down 13% over that same period.

Daytona prices during that time went from ~$37k to ~$47k.

Pepsi prices during that time went from ~$23k to ~$29k.

It is actually quite amazing the outperformance of the watch market vs. other assets during this time. Only fundamental development that has happened is Rolex raising MSRP marginally, but it doesn't explain this massive move. I don't really have an explanation for it other than "supply/demand".

[logo]

I think watch prices will go up first. Sellers bailing from Bitcoin and the market will move money into what they think are “safe” investments. Many new to the game will happily pay 3-4x MSRP for a Daytona or Royal Oak thinking this is a safe place, only later to realize that if the market and crypto really do crash, watch shopping will be off the table for a lot of the Instagram crowd who probably are over leveraged and trading from moms basement.

[huncho]

stock market is collapsing, it's not just bitcoin randomly deciding to go down. there are blue chip stocks down as much or more from highs. so far watches don't seem to be linked but who knows, it's very surprising that they're still going up the past few weeks. i don't think there will be any safe haven asset if things really go south. it's not good news for WIS if all markets collapse, i would never wish for that to happen. rolexes would be the least of most peoples' worries...

[Bmats]

Originally Posted by huncho

stock market is collapsing, it's not just bitcoin randomly deciding to go down. there are blue chip stocks down as much or more from highs. so far watches don't seem to be linked but who knows, it's very surprising that they're still going up the past few weeks. i don't think there will be any safe haven asset if things really go south. it's not good news for WIS if all markets collapse, i would never wish for that to happen. rolexes would be the least of most peoples' worries...

I think it’s too soon for watches to go down. Many people in various markets or with excess cash that won’t be there if the markets do crash probably don’t think it will (and maybe it wont). The smart money always leaves first and those in watches as investments or as forever going up assets (rather than just luxury items) definitely aren’t the smart money. I’m hoping 2022 so far is just a blip because I don’t think people understand the pain that will exist if it all crashes. That Daytona being available at MSRP doesn’t mean you’ll want to spend that money if it’s 08 or the late 90s again (or the many other times).

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Bmats

I think it’s too soon for watches to go down. Many people in various markets or with excess cash that won’t be there if the markets do crash probably don’t think it will (and maybe it wont). The smart money always leaves first and those in watches as investments or as forever going up assets (rather than just luxury items) definitely aren’t the smart money. I’m hoping 2022 so far is just a blip because I don’t think people understand the pain that will exist if it all crashes. That Daytona being available at MSRP doesn’t mean you’ll want to spend that money if it’s 08 or the late 90s again (or the many other times).

yeah agreed. the only way i can see these watches going back to msrp or discounts is if we have another 2008. i don't think anyone wants that to happen again. best case let some kind of correction happen and let daytonas go back to like 25-30k and move on. it's much better for people to have the money to spend on premiums than be out of work and having fire sales on assets

[Majin Buu]

I think prices will eventually settle the watch buying frenzy !
When people start to self respect themselves again saying no
to “overpriced watches”, the market will listen …

J

[arcampado]

I don’t think so… Short answer is digital asset values don’t directly correlate to hard asset values

[TswaneNguni]

Why compare Rolex with Crypto space cookies ?

[Sandpit]

All I would say is that in a buoyant market people are probably more likely to be comfortable spending money on trinkets.

We did see a watch price correction in the early days of covid. This much is fact.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by marmite2005

With Rolex mania in full swing over the past 4 years, could the tide the turn as quickly as Crypto price mania?

One minute bitcoin is going to 100k, next minute its falling and cant hold 40k, 38, 36k......with everyone selling.

Could the new money drain from watches as quick, no one needs a watch, everyone has a smart phone. As soon as the market understands that, surely the inflated prices could collapse? Good news for WIS

Perspective is key in both examples. Bitcoin owners are super enthusiastic. They like to say it’s just going to go up and you have to get a piece of it now. They want everyone to own Bitcoin since this will continue to increase the price.

Similar to gray market dealers but slightly different. Raising asking prices to imply increased demand and decreased supply when nothing has changed since the previous week.

So, I feel, many people will continue buying and if there is a drop then either you hold and don’t solidify your losses or you sell for loss and rant that this investment watch thing is BS. Continuing to pay higher and higher prices for a watch that has the same MSRP as it did, makes it a very risky call. But plenty of people can afford to pay more than MSRP and not think twice about it. Plenty of people are buying at MSRP and are not planning on selling. If you are buying the watch you want to enjoy it for many years, most are just happy to know that the watch on their wrist is worth more than they paid.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by CarlOver

Perspective is key in both examples. Bitcoin owners are super enthusiastic. They like to say it’s just going to go up and you have to get a piece of it now. They want everyone to own Bitcoin since this will continue to increase the price.

You just described a ponzi scheme exactly what crypto is. It can't be used in traditional industrial applications, govt's are either banning it or coming up with their own digital currencies because they want to control the medium.... there are professional companies out there that subcontract to federal agencies in the discovery of crypto so even drug and arms dealers are backing away. It has no intrinsic value aside from what people "think" it's worth.

As far as watches, it is amazing the trajectory and I wouldn't even call a downside until there's a leveling off and it's not happening right now.

[Tim Plains]

Crypto is literally nothing.

[Sandpit]

Meanwhile, the fed has printed trillions upon trillions of dollars just to keep their market afloat.

[CarlOver]

Not all that relevant to OP question but it’s always interesting to go back and see what people were saying months ago when there was a frenzy. Predictions…..

[Tensai]

Good luck trying to find anyone who admits they lost $ in crypto.

Will this influence the lux goods market? Perhaps, if crypto does not bounce back quickly.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by CarlOver

Not all that relevant to OP question but it’s always interesting to go back and see what people were saying months ago when there was a frenzy. Predictions…..

jp morgan said the s&p will hit 5050 this year. predictions are stupid and not really relevant, you can find crazy ones for everything. no one saw omicron and a lot of other political issues coming this early. everything is tied together

also people are saying the daytona will hit 100k so it's not really any different. anytime something goes up a lot you're gonna start hearing that kinda stuff

[GRabens]

I suspect, but cant prove, a lot of the hyper spending on luxury goods is tied to crypto and probably Bitcoin. Hell, a lot of high end watch dealers are accepting crypto as payment.

[NYG1121]

Dont look at prices on dealer sites. Look to see if the offer to buy yours has substantially decreased. That will tell the real story and I suspect they are closely watching the markets/crypto.

[YoyoGift8]

Interesting to see how the crytto/stock market declines impacts the lux watch pricing.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by GRabens

I suspect, but cant prove, a lot of the hyper spending on luxury goods is tied to crypto and probably Bitcoin. Hell, a lot of high end watch dealers are accepting crypto as payment.

Watch dealers accepting crypto. Just watched a YT vid and one dealer said they are putting 10% of profit in crypto on monthly basis. 48% down in 9 weeks. Ouch.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Dont look at prices on dealer sites. Look to see if the offer to buy yours has substantially decreased. That will tell the real story and I suspect they are closely watching the markets/crypto.

well Watchfinder wont give you a bid on a Daytona right now. not sure what to make of it but i find it very surprising. how much inventory are these GM dealers sitting on? or are they hesitant to carry more than just a few of these at the current prices.

and the fact that tons of GM dealers will take bitcoin tells you a lot of bitcoin wealth is being spent on watches. BTC is down nearly 20% in that past few days.

will be interesting to watch how it all plays out.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

All I would say is that in a buoyant market people are probably more likely to be comfortable spending money on trinkets.

We did see a watch price correction in the early days of covid. This much is fact.

There was a slight correction in the beginning of the pandemic but then the prices continued on the same trend...


Sub date prices for example:

[the dark knight]

The thing I am reasonably confident on is IF the tide turns, it's going to be violent on the way down. These are completely unnecessary discretionary items. Once the price starts falling, everyone is going to sit on the sidelines and watch to see if it falls more. Nobody wants to be the sucker that buys for $20k if it's going to be $18k the next week.

Not to mention there should be a lot of supply flooding the preowned market as people (esp those with multiple pieces) look to cash out their "gains" while they can.

I also get the impression some of these newer entrants to the grey market won't be able to just hang onto inventory if stuff is not selling. They might have to start dumping inventory.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

The thing I am reasonably confident on is IF the tide turns, it's going to be violent on the way down. These are completely unnecessary discretionary items. Once the price starts falling, everyone is going to sit on the sidelines and watch to see if it falls more. Nobody wants to be the sucker that buys for $20k if it's going to be $18k the next week.

Not to mention there should be a lot of supply flooding the preowned market as people (esp those with multiple pieces) look to cash out their "gains" while they can.

I also get the impression some of these newer entrants to the grey market won't be able to just hang onto inventory if stuff is not selling. They might have to start dumping inventory.

I agree. I’m interested to the see turquoise OP that’s selling for 35k, when 18k would be closer to 3x retail and reasonable. If reasonable is even a thing. I see hype pieces like this falling like a rock if it happens.

[Wee-Willie]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

Meanwhile, the fed has printed trillions upon trillions of dollars just to keep their market afloat.

Sorry, but the Federal Reserve does not print money...The Bureau of Engraving & Printing does. It is the duty of the Fed to "Release" the money into circulation at the direction of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed is separate from the federal government...or is intended to be.

I was the US Treasury Agent-in-Charge of Fiscal Operations assigned to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia...C-3.

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

I agree. I’m interested to the see turquoise OP that’s selling for 35k, when 18k would be closer to 3x retail and reasonable. If reasonable is even a thing. I see hype pieces like this falling like a rock if it happens.

Yeah for that model someone is going to be holding the bag…

I do agree with this line of thought. These are goods “assets” where confidence can disappear incredibly quickly. These should exist and remain as expensive toys. Anything including nfts are assets these days…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Dont look at prices on dealer sites. Look to see if the offer to buy yours has substantially decreased.

wise words.