14790 going to keep going up?

[jgottsman11]

Looking at a 14790 right now. At almost $40,000 should I expect to lose my ass on a blue dial 14790 or think I should be safe in a year or two if I want to get in another piece?

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by jgottsman11

Looking at a 14790 right now. At almost $40,000 should I expect to lose my ass on a blue dial 14790 or think I should be safe in a year or two if I want to get in another piece?

Not sure anyone has the answer to that. But historically the mid-sized neo vintage ROs (14700, 14790, 4100 etc) were nice values compared to anything modern. It's clear the growing demand has hunger for these 90s era references as well. I would expect they may continue to be desired and there are less and less of them to be found. The MK3 with the smaller markers don't get the premium the MK1 and MK2 demand. So that could be a good entry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Benzsiam]

I think the price for 36mm RO has gone up so much lately. I bought one TT and one YG last year (14790SA & 14790BA), now the price went up almost double.

[dh1]

It's hard to predict what will happen in 1-2 years but I feel like the current price point of the 14790 is mostly a function of the price point and demand for the modern non-Jumbo Royal Oaks. And those in turn seem to be driven by the price of the Jumbos.

It's a weird unstable equilibrium.

Unless you are specifically looking for vintage or particularly like the old midsize references (like me!), I'd say most people are probably looking at the 15450 over the 14790. But if there's a big gap and the 14790 is cheaper compared to the 15450, people see the relative value and demand goes up. Since the supply of 14790 is fixed... that pushes the price up. At after the gap closes, at some point people will say "why am I buying a 20 year old watch when the price is so close?" pushing the 15450 back up...

I feel like the same game happens with the 15450 / 15500 / 15400 / Jumbo.

[tcpx]

Originally Posted by dh1

It's hard to predict what will happen in 1-2 years but I feel like the current price point of the 14790 is mostly a function of the price point and demand for the modern non-Jumbo Royal Oaks. And those in turn seem to be driven by the price of the Jumbos.

It's a weird unstable equilibrium.

Unless you are specifically looking for vintage or particularly like the old midsize references (like me!), I'd say most people are probably looking at the 15450 over the 14790. But if there's a big gap and the 14790 is cheaper compared to the 15450, people see the relative value and demand goes up. Since the supply of 14790 is fixed... that pushes the price up. At after the gap closes, at some point people will say "why am I buying a 20 year old watch when the price is so close?" pushing the 15450 back up...

I feel like the same game happens with the 15450 / 15500 / 15400 / Jumbo.

This is exactly how I view it as well!

[huncho]

i don't think i'd pay that much for a 14790. the size is a bit small at 36mm, i feel like the 15450 is much better even though its just 1mm bigger. also the finishing is much better on modern ROs. i don't know if it's just due to photos but the bracelet on the modern ones looks like it shines much more, and not to mention the newer ones are more sturdy and have better clasps. all of this leads me to believe 14790s will be the first to dive if times ever change because people are just chasing the next best thing

[fullofboats]

Rising tide lifts all boats

However, when comparing the 14790 to 15450 I prefer the 14790 - it should be thought of as a super slim watch at 8mm thickness vs 10mm for the 15450. The proportions of the 15450 always felt a little off given the much smaller dial but same thickness compared to the 15400.

The new 15550 looks very interesting at 9mm and might be the best option.

[theflywrist]

I don't compare the 15450 to the 14790 whatsoever.
To a smaller scale but it honestly would be like a comparison between a 15202 and a 5402. Sure the majority would prefer a 15202 and theres nothing wrong with that, but the ones that like the older petite tappeserie, a more refined and slimmer (less shine) watch, will always opt for the 5402.
A 15202 will also be better finished and in better quality than a 5402, as will a 116500 in comparison to a 6263, but that's besides the point.

I own a few modern ROs in 38 and 39, but there is no substitute for the 14790. I probably enjoy it more than I do my 26315.

[deuxani]

Yeah it’s very clear why the prices are going up so extreme. Nice for current owners, really sad for potential buyers. Most 14790’s went for around €8.000 about 5 years ago, now they are becoming completely out of reach.

I agree with that looks wise I would get the 14790 over the 15450. The dial and especially the pill shaped hands and markers make it like a mini Jumbo. But vintage has its obvious disadvantages too. Especially if you buy it at €40.000…

[IS2000]

I have a 14700BA and I love wearing it. Does anyone know how much do they go for these days? I haven’t seen one for sale in a while.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

I don't compare the 15450 to the 14790 whatsoever.
To a smaller scale but it honestly would be like a comparison between a 15202 and a 5402. Sure the majority would prefer a 15202 and theres nothing wrong with that, but the ones that like the older petite tappeserie, a more refined and slimmer (less shine) watch, will always opt for the 5402.

Yeah, there's definitely a big aesthetic difference between the vintage dials / vintage tapisserie and the modern. The 14790 tapisserie looks like the 5402, but the 15450 tapisserie is larger than the 15202's (which itself is a tiny bit larger than the 5402). You're also right that the modern dials are more shiny / shimmery / eye catching.

Here's two macro shots I just took with my 14700ST and my 15450ST:

14700ST:


15450ST:

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by IS2000

I have a 14700BA and I love wearing it. Does anyone know how much do they go for these days? I haven’t seen one for sale in a while.

I wanna see a pic!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[watchbiao]

Originally Posted by IS2000

I have a 14700BA and I love wearing it. Does anyone know how much do they go for these days? I haven’t seen one for sale in a while.

My wife wears a 14700BA as well. They are usually similar to a 14790BA in price.

[IS2000]

Originally Posted by Jsol

I wanna see a pic!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here you go!

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by IS2000

Here you go!

Such a rare piece. Congrats.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thekman]

All these petite tapisserie and old font dials are making me drool. I really need a vintage Royal Oak.

[Jsol]

My 14790 Yves Klein and 14700 TT. AP has always done gorgeous precious metals. The golds are so warm. These vintage ROs get my heart all pitter patter.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dh1]

Originally Posted by Jsol

My 14790 Yves Klein and 14700 TT. AP has always done gorgeous precious metals. The golds are so warm. These vintage ROs get my heart all pitter patter.

Great mid-size collection!

Besides the rarity of the YK color and the two tone tantalum, it's also nice that you have the MK2 dial font represented by the 14790 and the MK1 dial font represented by the 14700.

[TheMethod]

Originally Posted by deuxani

Yeah it’s very clear why the prices are going up so extreme. Nice for current owners, really sad for potential buyers. Most 14790’s went for around €8.000 about 5 years ago, now they are becoming completely out of reach.

I agree with that looks wise I would get the 14790 over the 15450. The dial and especially the pill shaped hands and markers make it like a mini Jumbo. But vintage has its obvious disadvantages too. Especially if you buy it at €40.000…

I purchased a 14790 around 2015 in Miami from Matthew Bain for $5k. I gave that watch to a business partner and now it sells for around $40k. I remember Nautilus 5711 was $23k and RO 15202st was $19k on gray market back then too.

[dh1]

I noticed recently that HQ Milton has a tropical dial long index MK2 14790 listed for $59,950 now! Tokant has has a tropical dial long index MK2 for 48,900 EUR.

I love the long index 14790, but those #s are pretty surprising.

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by dh1

I noticed recently that HQ Milton has a tropical dial long index MK2 14790 listed for $59,950 now! Tokant has has a tropical dial long index MK2 for 48,900 EUR.

I love the long index 14790, but those #s are pretty surprising.

Looks like we are headed to a world in which any RO 36mm+ will be 100k and up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk