Some newfound hope at the AD

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by DBCooper07

I live in an area where there is NO local AD. My closest AD is 150 miles to either side of me. I go way out of my way to try to get out there as often as a 6+ hour round trip takes and make purchases. Gas, lunch, tolls, presents for the wife, and time dedication.

We text now and again. My AD assured me they are not getting any increase in watch shipments. And told me to not believe in rumors on the internet.

I wonder who they will call when the recession hits and all the over night/weekend flippers realize they can't charge $5-10K+ over MSRP?

I don't like how AD's pick and choose who to sell to. I'll be around buying watches for years even when times are bad. I'll just hold out for discounts I guess. I am not begging to spend my money!

I don’t necessarily like that either, but there’s no real alternative.

Unless they just sell on first-come, first-serve basis, in which case you’d have people with time on their hands camping in front of AD stores to snatch whatever comes in and flip it… I bet you wouldn’t like that either.

[DBCooper07]

I'd camp out there if i knew there was a chance. Right now other then paying 5-6K over msrp I have no chance. I won't go grey. I'd rather buy 3-4 K in useless stuff.. oh wait i HAVE! still nothing.

[Tavli3]

China now has over 400 million people locked down. Think about that it’s bigger than the US population. How many ADs and resellers can’t go to their stores. They can’t receive watches even if Rolex shipped them. That’s a lot of watches not being absorbed in China. That excess will come to the US and other markets so wouldn’t surprise me to see loads of incomings here.


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[RUSH2689]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

China now has over 400 million people locked down. Think about that it’s bigger than the US population. How many ADs and resellers can’t go to their stores. They can’t receive watches even if Rolex shipped them. That’s a lot of watches not being absorbed in China. That excess will come to the US and other markets so wouldn’t surprise me to see loads of incomings here.


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Man, I hope that’s true

[jarecki]

We all keep bitching about this whole situation all the time, but there a realistically only two solutions:

1. Rolex increases production dramatically to meet demand. We all know that ain’t happening
2. Demand falls, so that Rolex watches become readily available at ADs. That’s unlikely either, given how middle class is growing globally and more and more people can afford a $10K watch

I just don’t see the scarcity situation resolving anytime soon, possibly ever in our lifetime.

[Tavli3]

If the recession that everyone is predicting happens and inflation is not brought down the middle class will be crushed and not buying 10k Rolexes.

Not to mention food shortages around the globe due to hit by years end.

Watches could fall way down peoples priority lists.


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[jarecki]

The recession would have to be (i) global and (ii) really severe, to put a dent in demand big enough to balance it with supply. Possible, but unlikely.