Can Someone Give Me A Reason Why Gray Market Rolex Prices Won't Decline?

[cfidentification]

I know we have an international audience here, and this is an international question. None the less, there are international uncertainties and other factors out there. The US makes up a large portion of the Rolex marketplace, I don't know the percentages, but it is probably higher than Vietnam per capita.

I actually heard some people finally admit to "Bear" market in that specific term.

All markets were in the red today, again. NYSE closer to 14k than 15k.

Cryptos you say? Bitcoin in a downward slope (or dive depending on your positioning). Ethereum is following suit and actually down higher by percentage. Okay, to be honest, some have seen increases, if you consider the area of .010% much of a gain, but it's better than a loss, right?

Federal Fund rate up an additional 75 basis points if you didn't hear, more upward "corrections" to come. Prime now stands at 4.75%.

Inflation "officially" at 8.6%, but we all know it's higher.

Gas over $5.00 a gallon in many places, and going to go up. $6.428 in California, according to AAA. But you folks in Cali know that already.

American discretionary spending is down. True, there will always be Rolex buyers and there is a market immune to the above factors overall. BUT.....

The cheap money which has fueled speculations and allowed buyers working in connection with gray marketeers or independent "flippers" is leaving the building. You can't float inventory forever, many are likely overextended, and meet your call. I run a business, not a museum, so I have to keep inventory moving, even if that means discounting or rebating to my customers.

I made a reasonable offer to a certain seller here, this watch has been in your inventory for a while, (way too long if you ask me if we are talking about being an active seller) and you still won't come to the table. I won't pay you the unrealistic price you ask, but we both know the offer was reasonable. You know all the eyes you were trying to catch have already seen the piece and you still have it. My next offer will be lower.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by cfidentification

I know we have an international audience here, and this is an international question. None the less, there are international uncertainties and other factors out there. The US makes up a large portion of the Rolex marketplace, I don't know the percentages, but it is probably higher than Vietnam per capita.

I actually heard some people finally admit to "Bear" market in that specific term.

All markets were in the red today, again. NYSE closer to 14k than 15k.

Cryptos you say? Bitcoin in a downward slope (or dive depending on your positioning). Ethereum is following suit and actually down higher by percentage. Okay, to be honest, some have seen increases, if you consider the area of .010% much of a gain, but it's better than a loss, right?

Federal Fund rate up an additional 75 basis points if you didn't hear, more upward "corrections" to come. Prime now stands at 4.75%.

Inflation "officially" at 8.6%, but we all know it's higher.

Gas over $5.00 a gallon in many places, and going to go up. $6.428 in California, according to AAA. But you folks in Cali know that already.

American discretionary spending is down. True, there will always be Rolex buyers and there is a market immune to the above factors overall. BUT.....

The cheap money which has fueled speculations and allowed buyers working in connection with gray marketeers or independent "flippers" is leaving the building. You can't float inventory forever, many are likely overextended, and meet your call. I run a business, not a museum, so I have to keep inventory moving, even if that means discounting or rebating to my customers.

I made a reasonable offer to a seller, this watch has been in your inventory for a while, and you still won't come to the table. I won't pay you the unrealistic price you ask, but we both know the offer was reasonable. You know all the eyes you were trying to catch have already seen the piece and you still have it. My next offer will be lower.

You need to be patient. It’ll take some time but prices will come down. It’s a matter of who will ‘blink’ first. No gray dealer wants to be the first dominoe to fall.

[pepemaui]

Not all bought at retail MSRP....

Pride = Wont sell for even or small loss.....= Bigger losses later.....

[Warningshot]

They are also likely buying inventory at significantly lower prices in order to average their cost of goods as the prices come down.

[douglasf13]

Who knows what will happen, but I guess the only reason I can think of is that, if inflation remains high, holding cash is too expensive, so people will still look to dump money into assets.

[Tim Plains]

I don't see how anyone can try to accurately predict global Rolex market values while China is still locked down and Russia is heavily sanctioned.

[cfidentification]

Good points- assuming you suddenly are not desperate for the same cash to cover your expenses. But I am glad we have a dialogue. Look at all the people publishing their acquisitions after "getting the call". These watches are currently in production. I stay away from the vintage stuff, we know that is a different conversation.

[Jay2101]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

I don't see who anyone can try to accurately predict global Rolex market values while China is still locked down and Russia is heavily sanctioned.

I think demand is still pretty high in China. Friend of mine in Beijing regularly visits ADs and says pickings are slim.

They're leaving a lot on the grey market though. PreCOVID, droves of Chinese tourists would come to Japan to buy Rolexes. They would buy multiple at a time. It was like 40% of the business for a lot of grey dealers here in Tokyo.

[Nepats81]

truth is no one knows what will happen, because we are in dangerous territory, and have pursued a radical monetary policy.

Every other recession in human history, the president and government at least wanted to pull us out of it. This time its different. The Biden administration is purposely trying to destroy the economy.

Why? Because to install Communism you first have to tear down the existing structures. No one knows if they will be successful.

Perhaps all will be fixed when Desantis comes into office in 2024. We will see.

[Roll-E]

Another reason is it’s smart business. If u drop your prices significantly overnight, it will only hasten a further decline in price. But dropping the prices slowly, they get a softer landing to where the market ultimately dictates.

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by Nepats81

Why? Because to install Communism you first have to tear down the existing structures. No one knows if they will be successful..

That escalated quickly

[cfidentification]

Oh I did forget to mention one thing- I have run a spread sheet for years tracking gray market and resales. My number shows the index 124060, an easy example, asking price has fallen below asking prices in November 2021 and are roughly equal to estimated prices realized in October, 2021 on the secondary market.

[indianmachine]

they will come down. Vintage dealers that also stock modern, like tropicalwatch and hqmilton, have brought their modern pieces down and the latter even has a sale section. Parity must be maintained.