What happened to all those guys wishing for an AP price crash?

[Radbloke]

Haha wow, this thread has it all. The dizzying highs, the terrifying lows, the creamy middles. And we're only on page one! Good luck with sale OP.

[Deepseadog]

First time clicking on the AP portion of TRF. Not disappointed.

[Incroyable12]

Prices still aren't low enough. 14790s used to be around $10k. RO QP were $30k.

Those days aren't coming back.

[Bearxj86]

Will be interesting to see what happens as the 50th anniversay rotors/models phase out.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Bearxj86

Will be interesting to see what happens as the 50th anniversay rotors/models phase out.

100%.

The 37mm and 41mm three-handers could trade near MSRP soon enough.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ts3

100%.

The 37mm and 41mm three-handers could trade near MSRP soon enough.

They’re pretty much there - 15450s under 30k and 15500s in the low 30s. We will be at MSRP very soon!

[thekman]

The ceramic 34mm (non-50th version) was posted on MODA for 57. Current MSRP is 51. If you add tax that’s a pretty tiny delta compared to when it was selling at 90k a few months back.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by thekman

The ceramic 34mm (non-50th version) was posted on MODA for 57. Current MSRP is 51. If you add tax that’s a pretty tiny delta compared to when it was selling at 90k a few months back.


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and ceramics are ACTUALLY rare watches.

[paultagg]

I haven’t seen a beat down like this in a long time…lol

[epicurus]

[HelloMelo]

Are royal oak prices back to MSRP in the secondary yet? I don't really follow AP prices.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Are royal oak prices back to MSRP in the secondary yet? I don't really follow AP prices.

Some CODEs and ROOs are now less than MSRP.

ROs are getting closer and closer everyday.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by psm11

Some CODEs and ROOs are now less than MSRP.

ROs are getting closer and closer everyday.

Thanks for the update! I know MSRP on 15500 is 27k, what are they going for grey if i may ask?

[psm11]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Thanks for the update! I know MSRP on 15500 is 27k, what are they going for grey if i may ask?

I have been seeing many listed the last couple of weeks (non blue) in the high $30ks (but they were not selling). A black dial was listed the other day for around $33k on Moda (used).

[anx21]

The openworked tourbillon code on moda at over 50% off retail+tax is alarming. Someone lost 120K+ on that in <6 months. Really hope AP re-evaluates their biannual price increases, otherwise there could be some lasting damage to the brand

[aa909]

Originally Posted by anx21

The openworked tourbillon code on moda at over 50% off retail+tax is alarming. Someone lost 120K+ on that in <6 months. Really hope AP re-evaluates their biannual price increases, otherwise there could be some lasting damage to the brand

They've already screwed up by pricing the new 43MM ROOs >$41K. Those are already going brand new in the mid $30K and probably low $30Ks soon. Not a good look for AP. They got greedy when they saw 42 ROOs going for $40K+ on secondary market last year and over shot IMO

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by aa909

They've already screwed up by pricing the new 43MM ROOs >$41K. Those are already going brand new in the mid $30K and probably low $30Ks soon. Not a good look for AP. They got greedy when they saw 42 ROOs going for $40K+ on secondary market last year and over shot IMO

Everyone was surprised Rolex didn't do a massive msrp increase this year.

I was not.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Everyone was surprised Rolex didn't do a massive msrp increase this year.

I was not.

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

Wonder if FHB knew this is where the market was heading and jumped ship because of it (i.e., go out on top and let someone else deal with this).

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

Well, as you know from your observations on Moda, PM models like the OF Yachtmasters or WG Sub are now also selling well under MSRP, with e.g. WG Daytona close to MSRP, even though Rolex was quite conservative with price increases. So it's not clear to me that Rolex' approach was more or less astute than AP's (and I say this as someone who wishes AP would take it easy, as I'm planning to continue to buy my watches from the boutiques).

[yachty 1]

Originally Posted by aa909

They've already screwed up by pricing the new 43MM ROOs >$41K. Those are already going brand new in the mid $30K and probably low $30Ks soon. Not a good look for AP. They got greedy when they saw 42 ROOs going for $40K+ on secondary market last year and over shot IMO

If the boutique doesn't discount how will the roos go lower?I personally think that move will hurt AP esp in a recession.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by yachty 1

If the boutique doesn't discount how will the roos go lower?I personally think that move will hurt AP esp in a recession.

when full retail buyers decide to sell their ROO in a couple of years they will have to do so for ~$10K loss

[psm11]

Originally Posted by yachty 1

If the boutique doesn't discount how will the roos go lower?I personally think that move will hurt AP esp in a recession.

Eventually AP will exhaust the clients willing to pay almost $50k for them and will have no other choice to keep the pieces moving.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by aa909

They've already screwed up by pricing the new 43MM ROOs >$41K. Those are already going brand new in the mid $30K and probably low $30Ks soon. Not a good look for AP. They got greedy when they saw 42 ROOs going for $40K+ on secondary market last year and over shot IMO

This 100%. I love the new ROO but not at almost $50k. They are (brand new) a $30k watch tops.

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by psm11

This 100%. I love the new ROO but not at almost $50k. They are (brand new) a $30k watch tops.

As the owner of a 43mm Taupe ROO bought at retail, i agree with this. Its overpriced at 40k. Its especially bad value when you compare it to the 41mm ROC on full bracelet at 33k retail.

Yes it does have a ceramic bezel and a lot of metal, but the 7k price is unjustified. I think retail is 10k too much. Still love it though.

On the other hand, its exceptional value when you compare it to a PP Calatrava 5226 or any Patek at retail for that matter.

If we criticize AP for hiking retail prices too fast, we have to do the same with PP. 40k for a time only calatrava? 60k for an annual calendar? 75k for a manual chrono? PP is the real money grab.


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[anx21]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

As the owner of a 43mm Taupe ROO bought at retail, i agree with this. Its overpriced at 40k. Its especially bad value when you compare it to the 41mm ROC on full bracelet at 33k retail.

The smoked taupe is definitely the one to have if you're going to splurge on a 43mm at retail the price increases killed the value but it's still a top 5 all-time offshore

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

PP is the real money grab.

They're not even hiding it now with the 5811 lol

[JettyOne]

I’m not entirely convinced the lux watch market is in the toilet going into 2023. I’d need to see how China moves when it’s opening up. Tech and crypto are f’ed. New money is wiped out.

But, global Tech will picked back up + China is lux hungry. We could see an oversell going to Jan, but soon as Tech + China turned itself, lux will too.

All signs are pointing down, until they don’t. For now 15202ST just sold for $60k. That’s is a one-and-done piece.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

I’m not entirely convinced the lux watch market is in the toilet going into 2023. I’d need to see how China moves when it’s opening up. Tech and crypto are f’ed. New money is wiped out.

But, global Tech will picked back up + China is lux hungry. We could see an oversell going to Jan, but soon as Tech + China turned itself, lux will too.

All signs are pointing down, until they don’t. For now 15202ST just sold for $60k. That’s is a one-and-done piece.

No offense but I see this chirped by a lot of people who don’t actually travel to China, have business in China and really have a feel for China currently. This isn’t near as true as it was 2 or even 1 year ago. People banking on this China bail out need to wake up. It’s not happening, stuff is looking very, very bad there for a lot of people.

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by dmash

chirped by a lot of people who don’t actually travel to China, have business in China

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


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You seem hypersensitive to not traveling. That’s not the point of my post and it wasn’t a shot at you, I literally, word for word, clearly said that it was chirped by a lot of people. I never said anything about MODA. You’re completely going off topic and being defensive for no reason as you think it’s some personal attack when I simply point out that you’re misinformed. If you deem that ‘childish’ that somebody points out a factual thing about your logic, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Back to what I actually said. The fact still remains, you don’t seem to really have a grasp on Chinese markets and you’re just reiterating what you’ve read about from others and have no firsthand experience with in any capacity. Which multiple people are doing. or please explain otherwise if you do have some firsthand knowledge/are interimingled to where you can offer some input based on something other than an opinion. I *am* in tune with Chinese businesses/buyers and the economy is doing very, VERY poorly.

Again, this chirping of China ‘saving’ multiple markets it’s completely unrealistic and not what is coming. Just like before people were stating Christmas/holidays will see a resurgence for certain goods, it’s already playing out opposite.