What happened to all those guys wishing for an AP price crash?

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by dmash

You seem hypersensitive to not traveling. That’s not the point of my post and it wasn’t a shot at you, I literally, word for word, clearly said that it was chirped by a lot of people. I never said anything about MODA. You’re completely going off topic and being defensive for no reason as you think it’s some personal attack when I simply point out that you’re misinformed. If you deem that ‘childish’ that somebody points out a factual thing about your logic, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Back to what I actually said. The fact still remains, you don’t seem to really have a grasp on Chinese markets and you’re just reiterating what you’ve read about from others and have no firsthand experience with in any capacity. Which multiple people are doing. or please explain otherwise if you do have some firsthand knowledge/are interimingled to where you can offer some input based on something other than an opinion. I *am* in tune with Chinese businesses/buyers and the economy is doing very, VERY poorly.

Again, this chirping of China ‘saving’ multiple markets it’s completely unrealistic and not what is coming. Just like before people were stating Christmas/holidays will see a resurgence for certain goods, it’s already playing out opposite.

I work and live thruout China over the last 10years. We setup manufacturing facilities in six largest Chinese markets, 2 in Taiwan and 3 in Vietnam. I understand the Chinese market. It’s a minimum requirement.

You aren’t wrong, the Chinese market is bleeding from every sector, badly. I won’t comment anymore on this. However, the upper middle (and climbing up) is consuming lux at an alarming rate, STILL. I see Rolex producing 1.2M pieces having a tougher sell than AP and PP.

Here is the upper class Asian mentality, you might or might not be aware. “We don’t want stuff, we want treasure!” Another word, someone will get rid of 4 Rolex for an AP they deem treasure. Put it in context, it should be easier to sell a $40k ROO than to sell 4 DJs, in China, during a melt down.

I don’t think AP will encounter headwinds selling 50,000 pieces annually. The rarity isn’t *just* in the watch. The rarity/treasure is getting an allocation from AP.

Again, it’s too early to predict doom when the best player is still sitting on the bench.

Cheers.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Ahh the old China argument. Heard that one before.

I haven’t seen any convincing evidence that China will recover anytime soon. The housing market is particularly of concern (I’m in the space). And though the culture there is geared more towards luxury consumption, there is no question that the appetite has diminished. Sure, there will always be the guy that’s dropping 20 K on a bottle (trust me, this would be the case, even if the world is burning).

I don’t think a reversion to the mean is predicated on China not opening. Just look at pre-2019, when many models were selling below retail. China was fully open then, and I’d argue that they were doing significantly better than now (and likely in the near future, given their trajectory).

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I don’t think a reversion to the mean is predicated on China not opening. Just look at pre-2019, when many models were selling below retail. I Chyna was fully open then, and I’d argue that they were doing significantly better than now (and likely in the near future, given their trajectory).

I haven't heard of this place? Is this the otherworldly country where watch prices are stabilized, the market will run forever and RO are selling for 3x MSRP? As it seems some guys are stuck there.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Really? I am not an ultra wealthy person (I do ok) but the the wealthy folks I know, work for, work with, etc (some in the three comma club) absolutely do not buy watches as investments (many laugh when I bring it up to them). A mass produced luxury item is not an investment. There are very few rare watches that could qualify as an investment. Most APs, Rolexes, Patek, etc are not rare (just check Chrono24, Moda, etc).

[ts3]

Originally Posted by psm11

Really? I am not an ultra wealthy person (I do ok) but the the wealthy folks I know, work for, work with, etc (some in the three comma club) absolutely do not buy watches as investments (many laugh when I bring it up to them). A mass produced luxury item is not an investment. There are very few rare watches that could qualify as an investment. Most APs, Rolexes, Patek, etc are not rare (just check Chrono24, Moda, etc).

There is no point for what you call ultra wealthy people - triple digits and up - to think of watches as investment. Some 50, 100, or 200k for a watch is just change. Which doesn't mean they don't get nice watches but in my observation more as a matter of consumption and play than investment.

[Knappo 1307]

Did the OP ever sell his 30k watch for 57k ?

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Did the OP ever sell his 30k watch for 57k ?

[Trailboss516]

Not sure, it is still listed here:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=879033

[awu]

This is now my favorite section on TRF. I love price threads and entertaining threads like this one. Thanks to the contributors like dmash and Vince.

[agsstructures]

I was waiting and scooped up a 5402!

[JettyOne]

Gentlemen, I’d rather not hope to see a crash of any kind. Vince, I hope you recover from the housing market you are in. Tough spot.

Psm, many many people collect watches as investments. Certainly, not everyone.

Honestly, I hope China opens its doors and pull another miracle, for the sake of the global community.

And iChina is a newly opened, upscaled restaurant in Silicon Valley. Food is so-so. If the wife dragged me to the mall, you’ll probly find me here. Bonus, Patek is right next door.



https://sf.eater.com/2022/2/16/22936...an-jose-ichina

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

How many times did we hear last year guys saying they were hoping for a crash so they can buy?

Where are they now? Still scared to buy

No way, picked this up.

[Bill11783]

$51k, $57k… I’ll give ya $20k pal. Bbbbbbbaaahhhhh hhhaaaa haaaa

[messikens]

Waiting for it to reappear as a new listing in about 10 days

[Kirk Lazarus]

Originally Posted by messikens

Waiting for it to reappear as a new listing in about 10 days

It’ll be “Buyer backed out, available again. “

[Chewbacca]

I like Audemars Piguet.

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

I like Audemars Piguet.

Me too.

[fatcows7]

I just want to be able to buy one at MSRP when I walk into the store / have a short 1 - 3 month wait (not a 1.5 year wait...)