Interesting Article on Rolex Numbers

[Dhiren]

https://flip.it/D3I.xq Rolex Case Study: How Many Watches and How Much Money Does Rolex Make? - Quill & Pad


https://quillandpad.com/2023/03/21/r...es-rolex-make/


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[Osmin]

Interesting. But I thought 1 million watches is including Tudor. But anyway, nice read!

[alphadweller]

Thanks for sharing. I didn't expect Daytona production numbers to be higher than anything else except the Datejust. Also surprised by the high volumes of Sky-Dwellers considering the complicated movement and ring command system. However, I did expect the Sea-Dweller models (SD43, TTSD43, Deepsea and Deepsea JC) to have low production figures, being more of a niche product.

[Cigars&Watches]

Very comprehensive. Thanks for sharing

[brandrea]

So basically it’s still anyone’s guess

[bp1000]

To put it politely I'm not sure I can treat this as anything other than guesswork, pieced together by what the authors may consider to be repeatable AD inventory experiences but in the grand scheme of global supply probably dont represent the true picture.

Who knows.

[Harry-57]

The numbers are way off. Rolex were actually estimated to have produced 10.05m watches and generated revenues of $8976.462bn in that period.

I know this based on a rigorous methodology (look up a number on C24, double it, subtract your birthday and divide by the number of ghost listings) and painstaking research (Google). I just don't have the time to pad it out, draw meaningless graphs based on conjecture or add stock photos.

[Calatrava r]

Great photo of the watches. Rolex numbers are not publicly disclosed, so it is all guesswork.

[Mystro]

Fiction alert:
And once again, ……No one knows these numbers outside the company. The article has to state this which renders anything after it speculation. It’s fodder and nothing more than clickbate..

No one outside of the company knows the figures and I have absolutely no extra information that isn’t available online.

[Twisted Vicar]

More Day Dates than Subs? Hmmmm

[j10s]

The key assumption in their methodology is that chrono24 listings are reflective of the proportions of watches produced. This is a highly questionable assumption since the profit of selling certain watches (Daytona) are much higher than others (Air King), so I think all their conclusions need to be taken with a barrel full of salt.

[4 Aussies]

Originally Posted by brandrea

So basically it’s still anyone’s guess

Bingo!!

[dchernikoff]

If I'm reading it correctly, they used sales numbers from Chrono24 to determine the ratio of each type of watch sold? If so then no surprise Daytona is at the top -- I'd bet those watches are resold multiple times since their grey value keeps going up and up. So they are counting the same watch multiple times... Or do I misunderstand?

[ArtNouveau]

The silliest assumption(which does have a mild disclaimer)is how many watches a dealer gets each year. In the US there are as many as four tiers and I suspect most countries are similar. No way a big city Rolex only Boutique gets the same amount as a small market legacy mom and pop barely hanging on to their franchise.

[MRBolton]

There’s no way the Daytona production numbers are that high based off every AD I’ve talked to!

[Mr Ben]

Seems like the weighting they are using for production numbers actually represents how likely the watch is to get flipped rather than how many are produced. Suspect they have therefore way overestimated model numbers on watches like Daytona, GMT, Sub and way underestimated models like Datejust, Explorer etc.

I’m completely guessing and probably talking nonsense. Much like this article!

[MILGAUSS88]

In my work people have shown me studies, that started out with an incorrect assumption. When that happens, it makes the rest of the study garbage. It appears to me that they were using the number of listings on CHrono24, of each model, to ascertain what percentage of the production that is allocated to each watch.

If that is the case I would argue that what this is mostly showing, is what models have the highest resale value, and therefore is more likely to be flipped or sold under the table to gray dealers.

The Datejust is the most common by far, so that is an exception. But I don't think anyone believes that the Daytona is the number 2 most produced watch. What it is, is the watch with the highest resale value. The Milgauss on the other hand, has one of the worst resale values.

My personal perception is that the watches with a secondary complication are all built in the same quantity. ie Daytona, GMT, Explorer II, Sea Dweller (special case).

Before 2000 the Daytona was already sold before it hit the case, AD's would tell me that they would typically get 2 in each year. Some times 4. I don't think Rolex is the type of company to chase demand as we have all seen. They have closed a lot of dealerships then so the current ones may get more at this time, but I would not believe that Rolex all of a sudden gave into demand and started cranking out Daytona's.

[MILGAUSS88]

Just had another thought. In a different thread, I described the (Rolex) watch market as a mile wide an inches deep. Meaning that, the people willing to pay retail at an AD was a mile wide, but that the number of buyers willing to pay the inflated gray price was inches deep. And that a lot of the buying was from dealer to dealer thinking that they could get more money, or that the watch would go up in value quickly.

In this study you are seeing the inches deep buyers that have hoarded the Daytona's. This is really an inditement of where the watches are held, and it is not the end consumer.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

The numbers are way off. Rolex were actually estimated to have produced 10.05m watches and generated revenues of $8976.462bn in that period.

I know this based on a rigorous methodology (look up a number on C24, double it, subtract your birthday and divide by the number of ghost listings) and painstaking research (Google). I just don't have the time to pad it out, draw meaningless graphs based on conjecture or add stock photos.

Ummm, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw a Rolex at a store a few years back. He said five bazillion and i beluieve him.

[amh]

I don't believe any of it - if anything the sports model quantities are reversed.