"demand-for-rolexes-jumps-as-super-rich-shrug-off-inflation"

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by brandrea

My guess is that Warner Buffet has one watch. He strikes me as a pretty humble guy ( relatively speaking of course)

He’s actually a huge Richard Mille collector. He’s good friends with producer Michael.































Wait maybe I was thinking of someone else.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by ninjin

Super Rich ain't buying Rolex in the first place... well not the stuff the normal public can afford or get hold of. As an example, the Daytona RBOW.

not really true, scroll through any of the pages on instagram dedicated to watch spotting and you'll see rich people and athletes wearing the same rolexes you see all over this forum. just yesterday there was a thread about tom cruise wearing a steel daytona and last week we saw michael jordan wearing a plain rose gold daytona. tons of daydates and pepsis/daytonas all over, you even see the colored OPs. rolex may be "cheap" to them but it absolutely competes with patek, AP and RM regardless

[Tools]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Nearly every new model could be had at retail or below up until a handful of years ago. The whole Rolex market bubble is a relatively new phenomenon. I mean, I sold an Explorer II for $3800 in 2017.

Indeed.

Things are still not "normalized" from the ridiculous spike and outrageous secondary market scalping that has been going on for several years.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by DavidUK

It IS bad here in the UK.

The article referred to appears to be referring to the UK?

Not all of our population are super rich.

Most Rolex buyers here are just the average man in the street. But the cost of living crisis will see many of them paying £500-1000 per month more for their mortgage when their fixed rates expire in the next year or so.

They may just prefer not to buy a Rolex on credit when faced with such a huge financial burden. It may just occur to them that they could, really, lose their home if they do.

Most are also likely to be paying £500-1000 per month for their car. That may have to go too. I'm talking middle income £50-80,000 here where a Rolex shows their great success... mostly buying everything on credit.

Just my opinion of course.

I agree (at least as far as the UK goes).

The heartland of Rolex's buyer-base here in the UK is both the middle to slightly upper-end income individuals for whom buying a Rolex is still an aspirational thing, and those who in reality really struggle to afford it but get carried away with social-media-driven hype and FOMO.

There's an absolute world of difference between finishing the month with £100 left in your account before payday, to finishing it with -£100. Lots of people (certainly in the UK) are very close to the margin on their finances yet still want to project an image of success, and with many fixed rate mortgage deals coming to an end, the huge cost of childcare, the cost of living caused by rampant inflation, etc, those with small amounts of disposable income left at the end of the month will see that quickly swallowed up. When that happens, FOMO and "Insta-likes" take a very swift backseat in peoples priorities.

Of course the super-rich won't be affected - that's the way of the (capitalist) world, but it's not the super-rich who have been driving the crazy demand over recent years. As a "watch guy" I've had several people come up to me at work over the last few years and say, "I hear there's money to be made in Rolexes - what's the best way for me to go about getting hold of one?". All driven by hype, social-media, and FOMO.

If and when some of these would-be buyers feel the financial pinch, anachronistic little wrist baubles will be the last thing on their minds.

[Soultime]

Originally Posted by East of Eden

OK, but the UK is less than 1% of world population.

True.... But the article is a UK newspaper talking about the UK market.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by GB-man

He’s actually a huge Richard Mille collector. He’s good friends with producer Michael.































Wait maybe I was thinking of someone else.

You had me with that pregnant pause buddy

[ninjin]

Originally Posted by huncho

not really true, scroll through any of the pages on instagram dedicated to watch spotting and you'll see rich people and athletes wearing the same rolexes you see all over this forum. just yesterday there was a thread about tom cruise wearing a steel daytona and last week we saw michael jordan wearing a plain rose gold daytona. tons of daydates and pepsis/daytonas all over, you even see the colored OPs. rolex may be "cheap" to them but it absolutely competes with patek, AP and RM regardless

But those you are quoting are just the rich wearing what is trending on Social Media....

The bulk of business (sales and revenue for Rolex) is not those watches that are flexed all the time on Social Media but the models like the Datejust. The super rich tend to only buy what is fashionable on social media.

They won't be rocking a 2 Tone Datejust....

[Krash]

Lots of assumptions made in this thread without any actual demographic data backing it up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[plainsdrifter]

Re DavidUK: In that case, why has the WoS share price gone up sharply?

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by DavidUK

It IS bad here in the UK.

The article referred to appears to be referring to the UK?

Not all of our population are super rich.

Most Rolex buyers here are just the average man in the street. But the cost of living crisis will see many of them paying £500-1000 per month more for their mortgage when their fixed rates expire in the next year or so.

They may just prefer not to buy a Rolex on credit when faced with such a huge financial burden. It may just occur to them that they could, really, lose their home if they do.

Most are also likely to be paying £500-1000 per month for their car. That may have to go too. I'm talking middle income £50-80,000 here where a Rolex shows their great success... mostly buying everything on credit.

Just my opinion of course.

I think your assessment is bang on people in this bracket will stop buying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fleetlord]

Lots and lots and lots of people with the ways and means to buy lots and lots of stuff. Rolex is amongst that stuff. Inflation is a non-factor in any of this.

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by plainsdrifter

Re DavidUK: In that case, why has the WoS share price gone up sharply?

Maybe have something to do with the dates the accounts were submitted, 21/22 would probably be their latest submission.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I can’t read the article due to paywall but I can tell you that’s horse

The market is wildly different than it was 12 months ago. Prices are down and contrary to tech and crypto they haven’t come back. Watches have been on the sidelines of the 2023 first half rally.

They are jewelry after all not financial instruments.

Re-reading this thread from the beginning and I have to agree with you Tom. My own recent, anecdotal experience says prices have dropped substantially.

[Soultime]

Originally Posted by scurfa

I think your assessment is bang on people in this bracket will stop buying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it's spot on too.

[Roddypeepa]

I’m from the uk and I see some very predictable truths coming home to roost.

The uk base rate has been close to zero since the financial crash 15 years or so ago. In that time house prices dipped a bit then rose astronomically. The uk is short of housing really given net immigration and these low rates coupled with chancers and estate agents drove prices up and up and up... They are still at it now. 90 per cent of houses are going on too high atm and ending up reduced within a few weeks then still not selling. Truth is, people who are now in their late 30s/early 40s took those rates to be normal. They’re not. They were the blip. 5/6/7 per cent will probably be the new normal. A lot have really overstretched themselves thanks to cheap rates, rising, unsustainable prices and competition between themselves.

Now those low rates also led to a load of cheap credit. Cars, designer clothes, interest free finance, watches. The list goes on…

Now to someone earning 2,3, 400 k a year it might not make that much difference. But truth is there aren’t that many (in percentage terms) earning over 100k a year in the uk and I’ll be blunt here: that’s not a lot of money here to pay for a 150 sq m/ 1400 sq ft house that now costs maybe £700 thousand in large parts of SE England. A weekly shop costs £200 for a family. Filling the tank £70. Council tax, insurance, water bills, electricity etc etc.

Houses in particular have outstripped wages for decades in the uk. I sold my house for double what I paid in 2006 last year. I can assure you my wages have not doubled in that time. Nowhere near. A million doesn’t buy very much at all in most of southern England. It’s depressing really.

Now we have hundreds of thousands of families squeezed by their mortgage, car, grocery bills and hundred of thousands more who can’t get onto the ladder at all. This would explain why 99 per cent of people in uk don’t recognise or have any interest in expensive watches. That’s the truth I see. I almost never see a Rolex and I live in a very expensive area near Southampton. Think footballers.

Cars have seen their prices go nuts. Is a 3 series worth almost 50k? Probably not. Is an omega Moonwatch worth 7.4 k? Probably not.

The only reason Rolex isn’t yet too affected is there’s probably only 50-60 thousand Rolex watches coming here each year through ADs and there are still an elite who can snap every one of them up.

Once instagram allure wears off and with the steady but slow decline in residuals it may correct. It may not. They may no longer want them. They may. Time will tell…

Those looking to “invest” should be looking at older models, not paying twice retail for a GMT or ceramic Daytona.

Buy what you like. But realise if you’re even thinking about buying a Rolex with cash you’re in an extremely rare position globally.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[buffetwarren]

Originally Posted by brandrea

My guess is that Warner Buffet has one watch. He strikes me as a pretty humble guy ( relatively speaking of course)

I can confirm I have more than one watch.