Effect of the new Daytona ref on the old ref

[salnuaimi]

I am aiming to buy one from the old reference as I like the bolder sub dials and rich ceramic bezel .

However ,What shall we expect in terms of grey market prices once the new one start rolling out ?

I am sure the new one will come out with a stupid high price ? but will it sustain? will it pull the old ref up with it ? or many will sell the old and upgrade which means prices further goes down and I should wait ?

Thanks

[Walter Sobchak]

My grey dealer told me that the price of the old version will bomb. They will literally be giving them away for free with every moonswatch they sell.

[Oytun]

You might want to check this topic https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=897881

I doubt it will go any lower you can find unworn panda for $30-32 right now and black for $29.

[jb335]

The most likely answer is the discontinued one will slowly rise from here on out.


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[Oytun]

Originally Posted by jb335

The most likely answer is the discontinued one will slowly rise from here on out.

[wm82]

Originally Posted by jb335

The most likely answer is the discontinued one will slowly rise from here on out.


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Probably it will stall. Like the 116520.

[Chadridv]

Anyone that tells you they know exactly what will happen is an idiot.

But here is exactly what will happen...

By the end of the year and going into next year, as we start to see the new daytonas hitting the market and the spike from the official retirement settles, the 116500 black will settle around low 20s and the white around mid 20s.

Little by little over the next few years and moving towards the end of the decade the prices will continue to creep back up.

[thenewrick]

Used watch prices across the board are dropping.

If you want an old Daytona I'd just keep waiting until you see the prices bottom out and start climbing again, or whenever you're ready to pull the trigger.

Old Daytonas have gone down like 50% in the past couple of years. You're mostly seeing resellers who are underwater yolo listing on C24 these days. But there's huge inventory of them piling up and you're seeing the same ones listed for months and months without moving.

Nobody knows when the true bottom will come but it's already back down to where it was a few years ago.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by wm82

Probably it will stall. Like the 116520.

I bet there isn’t much difference between your “stall” and my “slowly”


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[jb335]

Originally Posted by wm82

Probably it will stall. Like the 116520.

I, like a lot of other people, don’t think the 116520 is a good comp for the 500.

The 520 was made for more than twice as long of a period then the 500 and while not easy to get at an AD, much easier than the 500. Also, while the 520 had a big change from the previous Zenith Daytonas (in-house movement), it wasn’t much of an aesthetic change. The ceramic bezel on the 500 was a very noticeable visual change and felt like more of a technological advancement. Movement nerds (I say that affectionately) may argue of significant technological advancements in the in-house movement or the Zenith but most people, including most WIS don’t give that much thought.

For those reasons, I think the 500 outperforms the 520.


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[zi464]

Originally Posted by jb335

I, like a lot of other people, don’t think the 116520 is a good comp for the 500.

The 520 was made for more than twice as long of a period then the 500 and while not easy to get at an AD, much easier than the 500. Also, while the 520 had a big change from the previous Zenith Daytonas (in-house movement), it wasn’t much of an aesthetic change. The ceramic bezel on the 500 was a very noticeable visual change and felt like more of a technological advancement. Movement nerds (I say that affectionately) may argue of significant technological advancements in the in-house movement or the Zenith but most people, including most WIS don’t give that much thought.

For those reasons, I think the 500 outperforms the 520.


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520 last SS + first in house movement of Daytona
500 ceramic + better in house movement

Both have their own fans.
I like the 520 more than 500.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by zi464

520 last SS + first in house movement of Daytona
500 ceramic + better in house movement

Both have their own fans.
I like the 520 more than 500.

Yeah, I mentioned all of those except for the 520 being the last steel bezel. But generally speaking, collectors reward the first of something, not the last. I can’t recall anyone ever saying how much they want or like the 520 because it has the last SS bezel. We hear talk about the first ceramic on a SS Daytona all the time.

And again, I really think the twice as long production run is a big factor and why these aren’t great comparables.


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[HMHM]

Grey market prices coming to a stand still, and yet people still believe that the 116500 will continue rising to the moon because it’s supposedly the greatest Daytona ever make and will never be eclipsed…. Ask any grey dealer to buy a SS Daytona and watch them give 2 answers: either low ball you so bad that you voluntarily not want to sell, or tell you upfront that they have A LOT OF stock in the back and can’t take in anymore….. so I don’t understand how a 116500 will continue to rise once the latest 126500 is released.

[Oytun]

Only issue i see about 116500 is there are too many for sale. Over 1000 listings (white:black splitted evenly) on chrono24 alone. Seeing too many of them lately for sale here and there.

Even if prices will be going down, i don't believe it will go lower than 27-28 for white dials, 24-25 for black. Just my guess.

I wouldn't wait for 126500 to hit the market to decide. 126500's will also be very hard to get and will be rare in first year so they can be priced premium. That won't help you find 116 for cheaper than today.

If i want to buy it now, i'd find used one for under $29-30 or black dial under 26 and enjoy it.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Grey market prices coming to a stand still, and yet people still believe that the 116500 will continue rising to the moon because it’s supposedly the greatest Daytona ever make and will never be eclipsed…. Ask any grey dealer to buy a SS Daytona and watch them give 2 answers: either low ball you so bad that you voluntarily not want to sell, or tell you upfront that they have A LOT OF stock in the back and can’t take in anymore….. so I don’t understand how a 116500 will continue to rise once the latest 126500 is released.

Grey dealers need a healthy margin right now and will “lowball” you on any model. That’s not limited to Daytonas. They’d rather you sell on consignment anyway.


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[HMHM]

Originally Posted by jb335

Grey dealers need a healthy margin right now and will “lowball” you on any model. That’s not limited to Daytonas. They’d rather you sell on consignment anyway.


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Yeah. I didn’t say it was limited to Daytona. I said “the grey market” itself has come to a standstill. During the “great bubble” of 2021- early 2022 (February), grey dealers were giving pretty decent offers for SS Daytona, and they weren’t afraid to pump the Daytona hype to the moon. There was even a long thread on TRF about how the Daytona will be a $50k watch and upon discontinuation will become a $75k watch overnight. Did it happen? NOOOOOOOOOO it did not.

Greys have a pretty decent stock of SS 500, whether it is on their own or through their network of dealers. That means that they will either low ball a customer to get a good price to stock and make a health margin like you said, or they will turn it down if they can get one from their dealer networks like MODA or equivalent. When there is no longer a sizeable chuck of profit to be made of a SS Daytona, that means more opportunities for people to get their hands on one, and that includes other models like BLRO, VTNR etc. When that happens, will people buy from grey dealers at a % mark-up or from an AD? Also today the US Fed raise rates by 0.25%….. will the economic reality be better tomorrow than today?

[zi464]

Originally Posted by jb335

Yeah, I mentioned all of those except for the 520 being the last steel bezel. But generally speaking, collectors reward the first of something, not the last. I can’t recall anyone ever saying how much they want or like the 520 because it has the last SS bezel. We hear talk about the first ceramic on a SS Daytona all the time.

And again, I really think the twice as long production run is a big factor and why these aren’t great comparables.


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Back in the day , 16520 was not hype as nowadays but look at the selling point we talk about now - zenith movement , patrizzi dial , inverted 6 etc..... that we didn't even talk about and someone even hated it.

5 or years later ppl could also hype 116520 first in house movement ，the first 6 digits , the last SS Daytona etc who knows.

[enjoythemusic]

They'll go up, then down, then all around... then 50 years from now it'll be higher for sure. Easy 2x in 50 years, maybe even 4x or more! A typical candy bar will cost $10 tho.