My take on the 2024 watch market

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Watchlurker11

i did not get a sneak peek, but my SA communicated the same (lots of 37mm and smaller)

Hopefully, some of the 37mm new releases are geared to gent's market. I had heard the 37mm size was now considered a lady's model by AP.

[Calatrava r]

Hopefully, we see some more serious traditional offerings from Patek soon. To me they have gone overboard with the colorful and dark dials. The look of the 5320G was okay with all the lume, numerals and hands as a one only, but then they expanded that look into the lines.

[Steele]

Quick market Update from Watch Charts

Nice little Dip after the New years and now we are looking forward to the Seasonal Valentines Day bump then we will see the typical Market softness going into Summer

Looking at the Brands taking the largest hits AP fell off a cliff to start out the Year with Patek closely behind

Looks like Rolex Hype Watches like the Sprite is getting slapped around

[Mccall86]

I'm planning to pick up a 16570 this year but I'm going to wait on the sidelines until summer and see if prices continue to drop. I'm not in a hurry.

[enjoythemusic]

It'll be a great summer for enthusiasts

PS: My lefty dad loooooves his Robin (aka Sprite).

[Steele]

Well that escalated quickly and looks like I’m right on the money 💴 so far and playing out exactly like I planned.

The US economy has clearly slowed down in consumer spending (Don’t believe the BS the Government puts out)

What’s hilarious is the new report out by McDonalds Corporate that says People making less than $45,000 a year are now PRICED OUT OF MCDONALDS 😂
with (1) Big Mac Meal at $12-13 with taxes and up to $19 in Connecticut I got to say you get what you vote for!
You want higher minimum wage well here you go! And there goes the price of everything 🚀

Now let’s look at the watch market and what I said was gonna happen January to March and let’s see what actually happened.

1- CC’s maxed out
2- Banks tightened up lending and Credit
3- CPI report just jumped to 3.7% but it’s more like 5.5% without the government BS
4- Consumer Spending has tightened up considerably but we saw that coming a mile away.
5- we have AP and Patek dragging the market down by % but Patek is taking the greatest hit here from Jan to March
6- What I don’t see here, but I see on the streets is Rolex’s big hitter AKA precious metal pieces also taking a HIT and
I don’t see that reflected in the numbers here. Those are AVAILABLE AT THE AD’S And in the GREY taking the Biggest Hit and Sitting.
What I do see is WAY MORE SS pieces hitting direct from the AD’s and the 2024 Price hikes in UK and other parts of the world kicking in

Watches and Wonders and Tax season coming soon! More Hype and free cash flow that will help stabilize the market for a little time until the summer DUMP!

Bitcoin is the saving grace for Watches right now and with the Halving Coming the Moon boys will be going crazy 😂 I need to confirm this will be a pump and not a dump

[Fleetlord]

There has been some correction on the top 4 brands....Rolex, AP, Patek and RM..but they are still very popular and will continue to be...

What has not been mentioned (or the absence of mention is =) is the freefall into irrelevance that other brands have taken...especially Grand Seiko. Nobody is buying them and the preowned dealers are FINISHED with almost all their references. HARD PASS. No CASH NO TRADE. The party is over. Everything else is weak too. Can't say I'm surprised. These other brands (Omega, Panerai,GS, Breitling...etc) did themselves in by having big price increases and gross overproduction of models.

[1William]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

There has been some correction on the top 4 brands....Rolex, AP, Patek and RM..but they are still very popular and will continue to be...

What has not been mentioned (or the absence of mention is =) is the freefall into irrelevance that other brands have taken...especially Grand Seiko. Nobody is buying them and the preowned dealers are FINISHED with almost all their references. HARD PASS. No CASH NO TRADE. The party is over. Everything else is weak too. Can't say I'm surprised. These other brands (Omega, Panerai,GS, Breitling...etc) did themselves in by having big price increases and gross overproduction of models.

Very good points. The market correction for Omega, Grand Seiko, Tudor and Breitling just to name a few in the secondary market is turning out to be significant. I believe we will continue to see a slip with those brands while Rolex, for certain models will stay static. Interesting to follow.

[BraveBold]

Was GS ever that strong? I’d like to add a couple more but haven’t noticed capitulation by most sellers…

Where are the “deals” so to speak? At least relative to 12 months (or so) ago?

I do see prices coming down on Patek, in particular… but especially in the models I have no interest in (their sports offerings are ugly imho).

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

What has not been mentioned (or the absence of mention is =) is the freefall into irrelevance that other brands have taken...especially Grand Seiko. Nobody is buying them and the preowned dealers are FINISHED with almost all their references. HARD PASS. No CASH NO TRADE. The party is over. Everything else is weak too. Can't say I'm surprised. These other brands (Omega, Panerai,GS, Breitling...etc) did themselves in by having big price increases and gross overproduction of models.

Grand Seiko has been so boring and not worth it. I only like and own the SBGW231 but I bought that at a good price and it was unworn. I wouldn't mind another SBGW305 in silver with a steel bracelet but not at 5k.

They pulled off the same stupid move by raising prices as the other brands you mentioned. I truly can't wait for dealers to finally give huge discounts again to get rid of Speedmasters, Seamasters, any GS, JLC reverso's, ... etc.

Who is willing to pay 8-10k for a regular speedmaster? I also wonder what the new white speedmaster will go for. I can see people buying that (I would love one) but not at 8k for me.

[Steele]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

There has been some correction on the top 4 brands....Rolex, AP, Patek and RM..but they are still very popular and will continue to be...

What has not been mentioned (or the absence of mention is =) is the freefall into irrelevance that other brands have taken...especially Grand Seiko. Nobody is buying them and the preowned dealers are FINISHED with almost all their references. HARD PASS. No CASH NO TRADE. The party is over. Everything else is weak too. Can't say I'm surprised. These other brands (Omega, Panerai,GS, Breitling...etc) did themselves in by having big price increases and gross overproduction of models.

Actually What I'm Seeing is thats anything under $8k is where the market is moving still and Brands like OMEGA, Breitling and Others in that lower priced and hyped tier are actually moving!
Just look at the Grey Market dealers now pushing under the 10K non Grail (To me at least) Brands as mentioned above.
Consumers are NOW ASSIGNING INVESTMENT VALUE to Watches (THIS IS A NEW THING POST PANDEMIC! vs Buying watches because you love them! SO that means the value play is top in the mind of many buying time pieces and value retention is playing a role in new buying habits.
Buying a $3000+/- SpeedMaster on the Grey is actually a Value and sensible buy to me in this market vs a $7500+/- Rolex Sport model

[Steele]

Ok gonna play the What’s gonna launch at Watches and Wonders

Rolex

#1 White gold Coke 🤯

#2 titanium pieces I’m thinking 🤔 a shocker for sure maybe a crazy curve ball like a Titanium Daytona 🤩 and a Titanium Day Date but more Titanium for sure

#3 Stone Dials or a Black Mother of Pearl Dial.

#4 Yellow Gold Come Back! All yellow gold Zombie for sure AND a YELLOW GOLD PEPSI! 🔥🔥🥰🥰🥰

#5 I’m 75% they discontinue the SS Pepsi but still drop the yellow gold as a going away present

[Steele]

Originally Posted by Steele

Ok gonna play the What’s gonna launch at Watches and Wonders

Rolex

#1 White gold Coke 🤯

#2 titanium pieces I’m thinking 🤔 a shocker for sure maybe a crazy curve ball like a Titanium Daytona 🤩 and a Titanium Day Date but more Titanium for sure

#3 Stone Dials or a Black Mother of Pearl Dial.

#4 Yellow Gold Come Back! All yellow gold Zombie for sure AND a YELLOW GOLD PEPSI! 🔥🔥🥰🥰🥰

#5 I’m 75% they discontinue the SS Pepsi but still drop the yellow gold as a going away present

#1 lol Tudor stole the show this year

#2 #totalfail I didn’t see one titanium release

#3 #WIN. LOTS OF MOTHER OF PEARL dials. The Daytonas looking good

#4 If you take the Pepsi and Zombie and a yellow gold pepsi it would still weight less than the new 44mm Yellow Gold Deep Sea lol BLUE WHALE

#5 #totalfail

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by Steele

#1 lol Tudor stole the show this year

#2 #totalfail I didn’t see one titanium release

#3 #WIN. LOTS OF MOTHER OF PEARL dials. The Daytonas looking good

#4 If you take the Pepsi and Zombie and a yellow gold pepsi it would still weight less than the new 44mm Yellow Gold Deep Sea lol BLUE WHALE

#5 #totalfail

spot on