IWJG Show Miami (Grey Market thoughts)

[Steele]

So a little insight from a local watch dealer here in Tampa, who is at the IWJG Show (Today is the last Day) is telling me that pieces over 30k are still slow movers (I think we all already know this, but I was asking him what other dealers where saying) He also said that the prices at the show are High and there are very few deals at to be found.
He is trying to make some deals happen today (Last Day Deal Day) so we will see how it goes he was messaging me this morning and nothing yet.

I am in the Moda chats and can see that there have been WAYYYYYY More Reference checks but almost all are under 40k this shows me that pieces are moving faster and deals are getting done.
I can also confirm that July 100% was the time to buy that was the cheapest I had seen the market with Pepsi's at 16750 (The lowest I saw) and a 116500 Black dial Daytona's for 19,900-21k (the lowest I saw) along with a Snoopy for 13k
Things have bounced back and I am not seeing prices that low now BUT I there is the occasional Deal that comes along but you have to be quick because they are GONE in minutes.

Thoughts on what other members are seeing?

[PAFG]

Market definitely continuing to decline... AP dropping new models like their life depends on it and overall prices are still trending down for nearly everything as hype model sentiment fades. Most Rolex models are now under retail besides the few exceptions of course. RM is basically all under retail for most watches that are still on the website because of how high they keep raising their retail prices. Patek, other brands, etc. all the same besides those few watches that are above msrp. As with everything, there are exceptions.. but as a whole, watch market is going downhill and it's good for collectors and not flippers.

[Gandor]

I think what's more interesting than over 30k is the over 100k bracket. These watches have seen massive corrections and are falling by 10% basically every month. A 5270j can be had under 100k now which is absolutely insane.

[1William]

Good report. Thanks.

[Steele]

Originally Posted by PAFG

Market definitely continuing to decline... AP dropping new models like their life depends on it and overall prices are still trending down for nearly everything as hype model sentiment fades. Most Rolex models are now under retail besides the few exceptions of course. RM is basically all under retail for most watches that are still on the website because of how high they keep raising their retail prices. Patek, other brands, etc. all the same besides those few watches that are above msrp. As with everything, there are exceptions.. but as a whole, watch market is going downhill and it's good for collectors and not flippers.

Last Friday I walked into the RM boutique in Bel Harbor Miami and they had 3 models on the floor 2 where women’s I think where available, and a men’s 67-01 which I love that size. We spoke for just a moment and he said the 67-01 I could have a non TPT one in 6 months. Ummmmm wait what. So your point of the grey market pieces being under makes sense I really don’t look at RM as I have not had a chance to really try any one yet

Originally Posted by Gandor

I think what's more interesting than over 30k is the over 100k bracket. These watches have seen massive corrections and are falling by 10% basically every month. A 5270j can be had under 100k now which is absolutely insane.

Damn a 5270J is insane piece. Under 100k would be a deal as I think they are 180k retail

[PAFG]

Originally Posted by Steele

Last Friday I walked into the RM boutique in Bel Harbor Miami and they had 3 models on the floor 2 where women’s I think where available, and a men’s 67-01 which I love that size. We spoke for just a moment and he said the 67-01 I could have a non TPT one in 6 months. Ummmmm wait what. So your point of the grey market pieces being under makes sense I really don’t look at RM as I have not had a chance to really try any one yet



Damn a 5270J is insane piece. Under 100k would be a deal as I think they are 180k retail

Yea, I also went into RM Bal Harbour a month or so ago and was told similar. You would be surprised how high the retail is on all the RMs are now.. it's like they increase it every time the sun goes up and down. Even the coveted 67-02 NTPT is in the 210k+ price range msrp. I also believe you can barely flip it after tax - and selling to a dealer after they take a cut. As a whole, there are actually very few pieces in all the brands line up that are worth more in the grey market. 99% now will result in taking a hit if trying to flip and most dealers don't want to dish out cash in a falling market.. so you got to do the lovely consignment!

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by PAFG

Yea, I also went into RM Bal Harbour a month or so ago and was told similar. You would be surprised how high the retail is on all the RMs are now.. it's like they increase it every time the sun goes up and down. Even the coveted 67-02 NTPT is in the 210k+ price range msrp. I also believe you can barely flip it after tax - and selling to a dealer after they take a cut. As a whole, there are actually very few pieces in all the brands line up that are worth more in the grey market. 99% now will result in taking a hit if trying to flip and most dealers don't want to dish out cash in a falling market.. so you got to do the lovely consignment!

I love it. How it should be. Buying and selling new watches (as an unauthorized dealer) to make a buck is a sleezy way to make a living.

[edo]

Turnover RM achieve producing 10, 20, 30 times less watches than some big brands is something insane...

I'm still a fan of early models and how they pushed masters of APRP in these gone days... today, without money laundering, uae based drug dealers and kpop stars the brand will go Franck Muller route...

[Steele]

Originally Posted by PAFG

Yea, I also went into RM Bal Harbour a month or so ago and was told similar. You would be surprised how high the retail is on all the RMs are now.. it's like they increase it every time the sun goes up and down. Even the coveted 67-02 NTPT is in the 210k+ price range msrp. I also believe you can barely flip it after tax - and selling to a dealer after they take a cut. As a whole, there are actually very few pieces in all the brands line up that are worth more in the grey market. 99% now will result in taking a hit if trying to flip and most dealers don't want to dish out cash in a falling market.. so you got to do the lovely consignment!

LOL "every time the sun goes up and down!" LMAOOO well this is great for the chances of getting a piece under RRP. BUT my big question is the Servicing of the piece I have heard nightmare stories on how much it cost and how long it takes to service I cannot confirm this!

Originally Posted by edo

Turnover RM achieve producing 10, 20, 30 times less watches than some big brands is something insane...

I'm still a fan of early models and how they pushed masters of APRP in these gone days... today, without money laundering, uae based drug dealers and kpop stars the brand will go Franck Muller route...

Crypto Bros gone wild lol

[Sleepy996]

What is retail on a RM 67-01 these days ?

Originally Posted by Steele

Last Friday I walked into the RM boutique in Bel Harbor Miami and they had 3 models on the floor 2 where women’s I think where available, and a men’s 67-01 which I love that size. We spoke for just a moment and he said the 67-01 I could have a non TPT one in 6 months. Ummmmm wait what. So your point of the grey market pieces being under makes sense I really don’t look at RM as I have not had a chance to really try any one yet



Damn a 5270J is insane piece. Under 100k would be a deal as I think they are 180k retail

[Steele]

Originally Posted by Sleepy996

What is retail on a RM 67-01 these days ?

I believe he said $168k but I could be wrong this was NOT NTPT

[CarForHire]

Curious because I have not seen many Nautilus and Jumbo's listed for a while. The cheapest I saw disappeared pretty quickly. Not sure if everyone is just sitting, hoping it goes back up when interest rates drop or the supply is just short.