Price Inertia and Watch Age

[Deacon211]

Good Morning all!

I'm a newbie here so forgive the question but, is the general consesus here that the increase in Rolex retail prices will drive a similarly sized increase in the pre-owned market? I had future plans of finding a SD, but am starting to think that sooner might be better than later.

My second question is this: I've seen a pretty wide variance in pre-owned SD prices on the net, generally corresponding to a spread of about $2k based in part at least by age. Understanding that the SD has been relatively unchanged in its later run years, is a 2009 model really worth that much more than 1990 model, providing they are in the same condition?

Since I believe in servicing my automatics at least fairly regularly, it seems to me that a good servicing would still be more cost effective than spending almost 50% more on the same watch that is just newer.

Or are these older pieces going to cost me in the long run?

Trying to develop a game plan here. I really appreciate the input!

Deacon

[padi56]

Well the Cal3135 movement has not changed since 1988/9 and if the movement has been serviced then it should run the same as any other case letter.

[DG123]

Buying a used watch and then having it serviced ends up costing about the price of a new one. Buy brand new.

Originally Posted by Deacon211

Good Morning all!

I'm a newbie here so forgive the question but, is the general consesus here that the increase in Rolex retail prices will drive a similarly sized increase in the pre-owned market? I had future plans of finding a SD, but am starting to think that sooner might be better than later.

My second question is this: I've seen a pretty wide variance in pre-owned SD prices on the net, generally corresponding to a spread of about $2k based in part at least by age. Understanding that the SD has been relatively unchanged in its later run years, is a 2009 model really worth that much more than 1990 model, providing they are in the same condition?

Since I believe in servicing my automatics at least fairly regularly, it seems to me that a good servicing would still be more cost effective than spending almost 50% more on the same watch that is just newer.

Or are these older pieces going to cost me in the long run?

Trying to develop a game plan here. I really appreciate the input!

Deacon

[Numismatist]

I think you have to decide which flavor of SD you want first.

Lug holes, no lug holes?
2,000 foot, 4,000 foot?
vintage, brand new, etc.

Then go about finding the best price/quality ratio you can find.

Good luck - SD is awesome!

[Deacon211]

Thanks for the replies!

I'm definitely interested in a modern age 4000ft SD with lug holes, which I understand was the final configuration?

I wouldn't be opposed to new except for the fact that the SD are discontinued and the new Sub is now at least $1500 above all but the most outrageously priced SDs out there.

So used seems to be more my preference. I was just wondering if the 5 grand 1989 model was going to cost more in the end than the 6.5 grand 2006 model.

Sometimes you either pay up front or you pay in the rear...so to speak! ;-)

Thanks again for the input! Anyone else?

Deacon

[lortap]

The last made SD's before the deepsea should have no lug holes. As far as cost goes, to be safe figure any over 5 years "should" have a service before being put to use in their intended purpose. So just add ~500 to the price you pay for any 2006 or older model. If a sping shower is the most extreme use it will receive, then wear it until you can afford the service

[Numismatist]

Latest NON-Deepsea SD (no lug holes):

[Deacon211]

Oops, I must have gotten that backwards. I think I would still prefer late model to lugholes, nice though they are. The $500 figure is very helpful and I had hoped to take it diving once in awhile, though it’s not like I have a shortage of divers at home!

So it seems like I am leaning toward a newer model…or at least a very good deal on an older one.

What of the first question? For those who have been around the community for awhile, will there be, or has there already been a “sympathetic” price jump in the pre-owned market to accompany the retail jump. In other words, is this a six month to a year leisurely search for me or should I “get while the gettings good”?

Thanks for all the very helpful responses!


Deacon

[Numismatist]

Originally Posted by Deacon211

Oops, I must have gotten that backwards. I think I would still prefer late model to lugholes, nice though they are. The $500 figure is very helpful and I had hoped to take it diving once in awhile, though it’s not like I have a shortage of divers at home!

So it seems like I am leaning toward a newer model…or at least a very good deal on an older one.

What of the first question? For those who have been around the community for awhile, will there be, or has there already been a “sympathetic” price jump in the pre-owned market to accompany the retail jump. In other words, is this a six month to a year leisurely search for me or should I “get while the gettings good”?

Thanks for all the very helpful responses!


Deacon

If you're like me, you'd want it on your wrist ASAP! at any cost but that's who us WISs are

[Deacon211]

Originally Posted by Numismatist

If you're like me, you'd want it on your wrist ASAP! at any cost but that's who us WISs are

LOL, yes but I'm TRYING TO BE GOOD (this time)!

Deacon

[MortgageGuy]

The SD 16600 is by far my favorite Rolex of ALL time and an awesome daily wearer too

As to your price increase question anytime there is an increase in the "NEW" market Pre owned pieces will inevitably rise as well, not immediately but they will increase. As the SD is a discontinued model I would assume the price would continue to rise slowly but surely. This model has increased quite dramatically over the last few months.

If you are looking for something newer (Z/M serial prefix) I would expect to pay between $5500-6500 depending on the condition.

Here is my M

[snowpea]

Nice watch and great photo Adam

[zeppe19avr]

Proud owner of a Z serial SD , I don't care if it increases in value, I love it and will never sell it, it's the perfect watch for me.

[Deacon211]

Man, I love that watch! I'm gratified to hear that the pre-owned market doesn't react immediately to the retail price rise, but it certainly seems that now is a better time to find an SD than later.

I'm less concerned about rarity than a well preserved model to wear and keep. As I said, I love my DSSD, but it does sometimes get to be a hand anchor and tough to wear in a suit, not that I don't try!

Deacon

[Deacon211]

And, yes, the Scotch does help to ease the pain of waiting!

[Jason71]

Deacon, one other thing to consider is Tritium vs Superluminova. Anything older than 1999 will likely be tritium unless it has had a service with dial/hands replacement. IMHO, since you are going to take it diving, I would look for an A-Y serial drilled-through lug hole model with Superluminova in unworn/unpolished condition or as close as you can get.

Also, get it sooner rather than later. I remember looking for them just 1.5 years ago, and seeing a few priced less than $3,000 (if you can believe it) from Reputable power sellers.

JMHO.

[gusto]

In addition to getting possibly difficult to read "burned out" tritium markers, if you get a submariner from most of the 1990's or earlier it will have stamped end pieces on the bracelet instead of solid end link (SEL) attachments to the main case (visible from rear of watch case after you take the watch off). If two tone, the watch will also have a silver-colored steel clasp as opposed to the "gold through the clasp" bracelet. These are major cosmetic improvements. I would say these items, in addition to just "age" are why subs from the 1990's can be $500 or more cheaper than their late 90's/early 2000's subs. Changes made after 2003 are smaller, including the "rolex rolex rolex" rehaut around the outer edge of the dial and loss of lug holes (the last item being considered a negative by many), until the major redesign in 2009/2010 period.

[Numismatist]

SD never had the ROLEX ROLEX ROLEX rehault...!

[Deacon211]

Wow, that is all good gouge! Interestingly, I haven't seen too many lug hole models out there. Is strap changing a pain without them?

I would not have even thought of the Tritium issue. I thought tritium was banned far before the '90s...interesting!

I've asked elsewhere, but since this thread is still going through your kind indulgence...

I have an offer on a 2003 model at what I feel is a good price. The original crystal has a bit of a flaw though and the current owner is getting it replaced on his own initiative. His watchmaker is saying that the genuine replacement may not have the LEC on it.

I've heard that the LEC is important to verify authenticity. I'm suprised that Rolex would sell replacements without it. Would this affect the resale much?

I don't plan to sell this...but there is a certain peace of mind knowing that I haven't halved the value by buying a non-LEC equipped watch.

You guys have been great! I tried to read up on this stuff, but so much gets lost between the lines in the volume on Google.

Thanks again!

Deacon

[Numismatist]

Originally Posted by Deacon211

Wow, that is all good gouge! Interestingly, I haven't seen too many lug hole models out there. Is strap changing a pain without them?

I would not have even thought of the Tritium issue. I thought tritium was banned far before the '90s...interesting!

I've asked elsewhere, but since this thread is still going through your kind indulgence...

I have an offer on a 2003 model at what I feel is a good price. The original crystal has a bit of a flaw though and the current owner is getting it replaced on his own initiative. His watchmaker is saying that the genuine replacement may not have the LEC on it.

I've heard that the LEC is important to verify authenticity. I'm suprised that Rolex would sell replacements without it. Would this affect the resale much?

I don't plan to sell this...but there is a certain peace of mind knowing that I haven't halved the value by buying a non-LEC equipped watch.

You guys have been great! I tried to read up on this stuff, but so much gets lost between the lines in the volume on Google.

Thanks again!

Deacon

The replacement crystals have the lec with a little 'S' inside.