Trend in vintage prices - last 2 years

[gouverneur]

I've seen topics discussing the inexorable rise in vintage prices, but was wondering if the group has thoughts on whether the market has been leveling off over the last two years or whether we're still going up up up.

I ask because in browsing historical threads for some models I happen to like (eg the 16760 fat lady GMT), it's not obvious to me that prices have increased in the last 2 years. Whereas the prices on new watches have definitely increased fairly substantially in the same timeframe.

[Rameez-Q]

While there is a demand, prices will always be high

How high? Well as time goes on it'll be increasingly harder to find all original models and models with box & papers

[springer]

If I had to guess, I would say that the GMT II 16760 has appreciated moderately the last couple of years. I would think that they are up at least 10% for comparable models during this time frame. Other GMT models have done much better as well as vintage GMTs that are complete sets.

[MitchSteel]

As long as rich kids and celebs keep wearing vintage and posting them on Instagram, prices will climb.Which models?well that depends on what flavour of the month it is.
Now, off to Instagram I go

[dysondiver]

id invest in red subs now , as of yet they are not making any more , and if they ever do , they will only fuel the demand for vintage.

[mtl514]

Only the best examples of a given model sell for more then they should. The rest of the market then plays catch up to the detriment of the casual collector because most of us are not buying the best examples. Not to mention that the serious collectors would be really out of luck if we all stopped buying the regular pieces. They need us to keep the fire burning. There will be a point when most of the casual collectors won't be able to afford (or justify paying for) even the most common models. It's a bubble like anything else, as long as people believe that what they pay for today will be worth more tomorrow then everything will be ok but the second that trend starts to wane people will naturally panic and start selling instead of buying. It's sure to happen we just don't know the date. I love vintage pieces just like the rest of you do, believe me, but this is getting a little out of hand. The best pieces are unattainable, the same 6538 that was affordable 10 years ago is now not even close to being affordable. Would I wear that affordable 6538 10 years ago, yes, yes I would. Today it would go straight to the safety deposit box, what kind of fun is that? The watches that we used to actually wear and use are now investment pieces or something to impress the forum members with in the form of pictures.

[sennheiserz]

I wrote a lengthy thoughtpiece on this topic based on a forum discussion about this a little while ago: http://www.wristtimes.com/blog-1/201...ger-attainable

I too have noticed that things like 1675s in pretty good condition used to be ~$6000 2-3 years ago, and are now in the $7500-8500 territory consistently. Same with 5513s, even more so with 16660 Matte Dials and even Gloss dials. 1665 has started to get into $12000-18000 territory and that's not even Rail Dials we're talking about.

Its becoming harder and harder to get honest examples of anything, with some of the biggest sellers doing questionable color matching, laser welding etc. With a full set Red Subs/SDs/1655s are getting into $20k territory.

I also feel like the Apple watch may increase the overall Rolex market once people start to like watches again and want to show how 'classy' they are by having a hipster 'analog' watch. In addition, the chinese market hasn't yet decided to dive into vintage full force which would be a serious strain on supply. With so many new watchmakers putting out models at high prices and fragmenting the market, a vintage Rolex seems like an easy investment and a cool choice for just about anyone with some real disposable income.

As a poster before me has said, and as I've done, get some 1680 Reds while you can.

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by gouverneur

I've seen topics discussing the inexorable rise in vintage prices, but was wondering if the group has thoughts on whether the market has been leveling off over the last two years or whether we're still going up up up.

I ask because in browsing historical threads for some models I happen to like (eg the 16760 fat lady GMT), it's not obvious to me that prices have increased in the last 2 years. Whereas the prices on new watches have definitely increased fairly substantially in the same timeframe.

The rarer the watch, the better the condition, and the greater the provenance, the greater the demand, and thus the steeper the price incline over time. It's the pieces that are not so rare, relatively speaking, that have the greatest risk of dropping value quickly if too many people go to sell at once or if too many enter the market all at once. That's my thinking on it at least...

[kryan5732]

This is exactly the same as the guitar world which I am much more involved in. Rare, condition, provenance equals the highest prices! The guitar in my Avatar is the rarest guitar I have ever owned!

[QueueCumber]

Fortunately, Rolex is the leading luxury watch brand bar none. Would most of us even be collecting these vintage pieces with so much enthusiasm if they weren't? The two brands with the strongest continuous luxury brand identities, Patek Philippe and Rolex, have done extremely well with vintage values over time. They have survived because they have excelled at brand identity and quality of craftsmanship, and they have maintained their roots over the last few decades rather than selling out to luxury product groups.

Like Ferrari, Rolex maintains value well relatively speaking compared to most other brands. Like vintage Ferrari, even the more common vintage Rolex models are worth more than what they sold for by quite a large margin. If Ferrari and Rolex continue to maintain their brand status and identity today, I don't see the prices popping anytime soon, except when the markets falter, like in 2008.

Interestingly enough, Ferrari is not independent if I remember correctly. Yet, their values are stronger than ever in the vintage market. So perhaps being independent isn't so important if the brand identity is strong enough and the product is pure enough...

[steptoe]

They can't make rare vintage watches, what's out there is all there is.

But every day more people are made who'll want them.

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by mtl514

Only the best examples of a given model sell for more then they should. The rest of the market then plays catch up to the detriment of the casual collector because most of us are not buying the best examples. Not to mention that the serious collectors would be really out of luck if we all stopped buying the regular pieces. They need us to keep the fire burning. There will be a point when most of the casual collectors won't be able to afford (or justify paying for) even the most common models. It's a bubble like anything else, as long as people believe that what they pay for today will be worth more tomorrow then everything will be ok but the second that trend starts to wane people will naturally panic and start selling instead of buying. It's sure to happen we just don't know the date. I love vintage pieces just like the rest of you do, believe me, but this is getting a little out of hand. The best pieces are unattainable, the same 6538 that was affordable 10 years ago is now not even close to being affordable. Would I wear that affordable 6538 10 years ago, yes, yes I would. Today it would go straight to the safety deposit box, what kind of fun is that? The watches that we used to actually wear and use are now investment pieces or something to impress the forum members with in the form of pictures.

Great post!

[aaamax]

Some good points brought up here.
Like the guitar world, as Kryan stated, vintage goes up in value for the desirable pieces. Sometimes to the point of absurdity for the simple reason that one can not afford to use the item for its intended purpose… guitar should be played and a watch worn. Very few guys are taking their '59 Les Paul to the local bar gig.
Another factor which is important in understanding the staying power of vintage prices is the availability of spare parts, etc. Rolex is still in business and does support its product quite well down the age line which I say is VERY important.
I enjoy Pam and Anonimo. Can you imagine what would happen if there was no support for Pam anymore? I'll tell you, as an Anonimo enthusiast (which has a direct lineage with Panerai), I have seen the company go belly-up and then try to get resurrected all the while the parts supply line drying up. What does this do to the used/second had market? In Anonimo's case, a rather healthy environment became so bad that it's hard to get 1/4 the price one could expect just four years ago. Amazing. All this because of zero Moco support.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

Fortunately, Rolex is the leading luxury watch brand bar none. Would most of us even be collecting these vintage pieces with so much enthusiasm if they weren't? The two brands with the strongest continuous luxury brand identities, Patek Philippe and Rolex, have done extremely well with vintage values over time. They have survived because they have excelled at brand identity and quality of craftsmanship, and they have maintained their roots over the last few decades rather than selling out to luxury product groups.

Like Ferrari, Rolex maintains value well relatively speaking compared to most other brands. Like vintage Ferrari, even the more common vintage Rolex models are worth more than what they sold for by quite a large margin. If Ferrari and Rolex continue to maintain their brand status and identity today, I don't see the prices popping anytime soon, except when the markets falter, like in 2008.

Interestingly enough, Ferrari is not independent if I remember correctly. Yet, their values are stronger than ever in the vintage market. So perhaps being independent isn't so important if the brand identity is strong enough and the product is pure enough...

Excellent post

Btw, thank you for your assistance in helping me decide on my 67 5513
(Sorry don't mean to hijack this thread)

[Franks07]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

Fortunately, Rolex is the leading luxury watch brand bar none. Would most of us even be collecting these vintage pieces with so much enthusiasm if they weren't? The two brands with the strongest continuous luxury brand identities, Patek Philippe and Rolex, have done extremely well with vintage values over time. They have survived because they have excelled at brand identity and quality of craftsmanship, and they have maintained their roots over the last few decades rather than selling out to luxury product groups.

Like Ferrari, Rolex maintains value well relatively speaking compared to most other brands. Like vintage Ferrari, even the more common vintage Rolex models are worth more than what they sold for by quite a large margin. If Ferrari and Rolex continue to maintain their brand status and identity today, I don't see the prices popping anytime soon, except when the markets falter, like in 2008.

Interestingly enough, Ferrari is not independent if I remember correctly. Yet, their values are stronger than ever in the vintage market. So perhaps being independent isn't so important if the brand identity is strong enough and the product is pure enough...

I always enjoy reading the highly intellectual and thought provoking posts in this forum. Que and so many others (Beaumont Miller, Springer, Tools, Jedly, Mike Wood, Milton Haywood...to name just a few) can always be counted on for outstanding insight and phenomenal Rolex expertise. The seemingly endless string of breathtaking vintage Rolex pics is certainly an added bonus.

[motoikkyu]

There is a correlation between the stock/commodities marketplace and the secondary marketplace. My colleague and I have been trying to render it into a formula for years, with no real success. It's based on the general observation that when times in stocks and commodities are bad, the investors/capitalists are more likely to buy THINGS, like vintage cars, wine, Rolex, etc. Can't prove it, but PROBABLY because a) there's no other place to put the money if you are saturated on real estate; or b) you might as well spend it on something that makes you happy. By the same token, a lot of good pieces come on the market just before tax season, and when the market takes off and rises (a better place to put your money, sell the toys). Don't take my word for it, just watch.

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

There is a correlation between the stock/commodities marketplace and the secondary marketplace. My colleague and I have been trying to render it into a formula for years, with no real success. It's based on the general observation that when times in stocks and commodities are bad, the investors/capitalists are more likely to buy THINGS, like vintage cars, wine, Rolex, etc. Can't prove it, but PROBABLY because a) there's no other place to put the money if you are saturated on real estate; or b) you might as well spend it on something that makes you happy. By the same token, a lot of good pieces come on the market just before tax season, and when the market takes off and rises (a better place to put your money, sell the toys). Don't take my word for it, just watch.

After the markets started recovering a great deal from 2008, people put more into vintage cars and watches, but not during the times of acute duress. During the times of acute duress, no one was moving money at all, and values on vintage went down if I remember correctly.

[Chrispare]

Very interesting thread
I learn so much thanks TRF and you !

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by sennheiserz

I too have noticed that things like 1675s in pretty good condition used to be ~$6000 2-3 years ago, and are now in the $7500-8500 territory consistently. Same with 5513s, even more so with 16660 Matte Dials and even Gloss dials. 1665 has started to get into $12000-18000 territory and that's not even Rail Dials we're talking about.

Where was the S&P 500 2-3 years ago? When you look at it like that, those 1675s look like either a seriously underperforming asset, or a seriously undervalued one. We know that people who buy vintage Rolex also prob own stocks. We are in a bull market for stocks, real estate, art, collector cars, AND collector watches. it will correct at sometime but who is to say that the correction wont happen until collector quality 1675s reach $20k? of course, people said the same thing about the housing market in 2007, but i think the days of being able to buy good condition 4 digit reference vintage Rolex sport models for under $5000 is over and never coming back. i know people dont like to view watches as investments, but every vintage Rolex i have ever bought has certainly beaten the rate of inflation.

[Eric88]

Vintage prices and trendiness = crazy.

I bought a NOS condition Rolex Sub Date 1680 a little over 3 years ago for $4600. Today, one would be lucky to get that one for $9000. I had a beautiful 1675 that I sold for less than $4000. These days, it would be worth over $7500. Oh well, it is great to have such a nice brand and still some good examples showing up.

I dread the day that a simple 1680 or 5513 commands over $10k.

[redhotmurc333]

Originally Posted by Eric88

Vintage prices and trendiness = crazy.

I bought a NOS condition Rolex Sub Date 1680 a little over 3 years ago for $4600. Today, one would be lucky to get that one for $9000. I had a beautiful 1675 that I sold for less than $4000. These days, it would be worth over $7500. Oh well, it is great to have such a nice brand and still some good examples showing up.

I dread the day that a simple 1680 or 5513 commands over $10k.

I TOTALLY Agree with you... I had a nipple dialed Root beer Two Tone GMT almost NOS condition COMPLETE I sold a couple years back for almost next to nothing and now... I have noticed a significant rise in price for the GMTs... But as u said... nice to know that ts a solid company that keeps its value~

[redhotmurc333]

Originally Posted by steptoe

They can't make rare vintage watches, what's out there is all there is.

But every day more people are made who'll want them.

Totally Agree~

[soundserious]

Well all of this discussion presumes honest watches. Without even getting into fakes, the aftermarket for loose dials, hands, etc. is eye opening. If we are okay with laser welded cases and color matched hands then it's only a matter of time until someone notices the emperor ain't got no clothes.

[aaamax]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Well all of this discussion presumes honest watches. Without even getting into fakes, the aftermarket for loose dials, hands, etc. is eye opening. If we are okay with laser welded cases and color matched hands then it's only a matter of time until someone notices the emperor ain't got no clothes.

This is a very real problem and why I don't trust myself with very fine examples. Unless I can hold it in my hand i pass. For this reason I truly only consider rougher, obviously untouched examples for purchase. Those ultra clean and matching 45 year old watches scare the bejesus out of me… There truly can not be so many legit ones out there. Kind of like how the cup size of women seems to have increased in the last couple of decades… bogus as Bozos nose.
Just my 2c.