Your thoughts on the Vintage "bubble"?

[theflywrist]

I shall start by saying that this thread was not created to cause any arguments, but as a forum with many experts in the world of vintage rolex, I believe a lot of information can be passed around, different opinions shared, etc.

Started thinking about it as I was chatting with a friend earlier today, we were simply discussing how the bubble has just been growing bigger.

As a guy that recently ventured into the world of vintage, I can't help but realise prices have escalated very much in a very short duration of time.
I would like to ask why you think this is? (apart from supply and demand).
I may stand corrected (do correct me if I am wrong), but it does seem like prices have within a year or two just sky rocketed, and it was not so much of a gradual process.
Ofcourse certain more "collectible" references were affected far more than others.

In your opinion, did the price hike reflect upon the more sought out watches? Or were pretty much all vintage watches (even the long production period ones) affected?

Do you believe this to be a bubble that will burst?
What do you think caused the hype very quickly?

Lastly, on a more random note. Did the crisis in 2008 impact the vintage world largely?

Simply looking to gather information for myself amongst many of the more knowledgable guys in here.
Thanks guys!!

[motoikkyu]

I get up every day to work. They pay me in money. The money gets more worthless every day: I know because I buy groceries, occasionally, to go with my poison wine. When money gets worthless, people buy things that have value, like art or vintage watches. I know the market is strong, but I've lost on every paper investment I've ever made. When I have money, I'll buy the watch. When the market becomes more reliable or other investment opportunities present, I think people will buy fewer "things of value" and will plan for the future in other ways.

[omitohud]

There was a long discussions a while back on this very issue on this forum. Do a search for an insightful reading.


I blame it on the autoconnect.

[05carbondrz]

The high condition all original Watches will always have a market as there are fewer and fewer coming to Market that are true "Barn finds".

[stmoore]

We've covered this several times. I am not sure about a bubble, but I think the "tell" are the number of new "dealers" ...
Study history and old Joe Kennedy:
In the winter of 1928, he decided to stop to have his shoes shined before he started his day's work at the office. When the boy finished, he offered Kennedy a stock tip: "Buy Hindenburg." Kennedy soon sold off his stocks, thinking:
“You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.

This largely saved his empire during the depression so he could be a bootlegger and buy elections.

[springer]

Try a search in the vintage forum. This is the same discussion material that is found in other thread.

[springer]

[QUOTE=omitohud;6417716]There was a long discussions a while back on this very issue on this forum. Do a search for an insightful reading.

X2. Try a search in the vintage forum. This is the same discussion material that is found in the other thread.

[adam78]

I thought at first you meant this kind of vintage bubble...!