Rolex pricing trends

[Max72]

Flippers are ruining every collectible field artificially rising prices by buying up large quantities of the existing supply.

[droptopman]

Originally Posted by seattleal

But they are still out there. I found this one on another (non-Rolex) forum last year for 7K. (pic is post ABC service)-

Excellent score there. Generally going for 2-3 times that amount with a clean dial. I may have overpaid for mine but honestly I was getting sick of looking and it was the best example I came across in a long time.

Edit: beautiful watch by the way.

[seattleal]

Originally Posted by droptopman

..... I may have overpaid for mine but honestly I was getting sick of looking and it was the best example I came across in a long time......

I saw that watch when it was listed; I don't think you overpaid - you may have been at the top of the market, but you got a top of the market watch. I've only seen one since even close to it, and it was equally pricey.

And how would you feel if you hadn't jumped on it?

I can tell you are enjoying the hell out of it, as well you should. Continue to do so, and don't bother looking back.

[droptopman]

Originally Posted by seattleal

I saw that watch when it was listed; I don't think you overpaid - you may have been at the top of the market, but you got a top of the market watch. I've only seen one since even close to it, and it was equally pricey.



And how would you feel if you hadn't jumped on it?



I can tell you are enjoying the hell out of it, as well you should. Continue to do so, and don't bother looking back.

Thank you. Very well said. And yes I do enjoy it very much. Definitely the highlight of my collecting "career".

[eco8gator]

Tudor Submariners especially the snowflakes are doing very well. I have never lost money on a Tudor Sub and in most cases I have made more on a Tudor a year or 2 down the road...

[JohnnyNoDate]

Originally Posted by speedolex

I believe there is a predictable, cyclical cadence to the vintage market, goes something like this:

Every 30 years a new generation of vintage buyers appears and the older generation disappears. If the prime buying years are between ages 35-65, then you pick a watch decade, hit the mean, and do some math.

1960's watches, become hot vintage collectibles for those turning 35 in 2000 and will become very scarce by 2015 (all bought up) and won't rebound until those buyers turn 65 in 2030 (retirement or death).

1970's watches, become hot vintage collectibles for those turning 35 in 2010 and will become very scarce by 2025 (all bought up) and won't rebound until those buyers turn 65 in 2040 (retirement or death).

...and so on. There is a finite supply of these watches, and for those who aren't flippers or making a living out of the hobby they stick in a collection for decades and only become available again when someone needs money in older age and/or the descendants cash-out dad's estate.

This is funny because I view some aspects of collecting in a similar mathematical way.. the concept is sound, but it's kind of messed up...

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by v.lats97nsx

Snowflake has shot up

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

Yes, was shocked to see that recently.

[Gina Marie]

I just picked this one up as a full set with punched but i got raked over the coals.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by JohnnyNoDate

This is funny because I view some aspects of collecting in a similar mathematical way.. the concept is sound, but it's kind of messed up...

People adore their favorite possessions and never sell them, they only become available after they die.

That's sort of the short version.

[droptopman]

Originally Posted by Gina Marie

I just picked this one up as a full set with punched but i got raked over the coals.

Beautiful example and worth the premium👍🏻. Congrats!

[AS1]

Originally Posted by dexvd

From what I've seen the market has shifted to focus price growth and big money on those 'auction watches' with perfect condition, with almost unique but correct dials in terms of patina or condition or slight difference and provenance.

I feel like the big money has moved on from the average 5513 or 1675 and are more into getting 'perfect' or super rare pieces to add to their collection of safe queens that they seem to hold for a while and then flip again at another big auction a few years down the road. I've noticed an increase in pieces mentioned in auction reports have history of pricing at past auctions, which makes me feel that the big money high profile auctions are starting to have more and more of the same watches repeatedly listed.

I feel like for wearable condition Rolex vintage, like it seems the majority of the enthusiasts/collectors in this forum are more interested in, the prices of been stagnant for a while, which is great for those of us that are just looking to wear great vintage Rolex pieces or get into the hobby but bad for those of us who may have tried to speculate and buy pieces hoping to make a profit on the resale a couple years later.

You definitely make some good points here and thanks for the well-thought out response!

My note of caution is really that it's quite difficult to gauge this accurately because those auctions you mention get a lot of publicity (even more now than 2-3 years ago), so they inevitably leave a stronger impression.

However, in terms of volume, I imagine a far greater number of vintage pieces are shifted through the vintage dealer community than these high profile auctions. And good luck getting a lot of transparency as to that market. There are certain dealers who post prices online, like HQ Milton, but the vast majority do not. And the true creme de la creme dealers work in different circles... not quite the Geneva auctions with CHF1m+ pieces, but still a rarified air where it's quite difficult to know what's really going on.

That all said... my impression based on talking to a few people in the community is that there has been general "inflation" over the last 12-24 months in all quality vintage Rolex, particularly for vintage Daytonas which remain highly sought after. But I don't know for sure.

The reality is that those top class pieces are increasingly held by collectors who don't need the money, and so supply is highly constrained. Less true for 1675s etc., in respect of which I think the "relative affordability" (tough to use that word for thousands of dollars on a watch, I know...) is better and attract people looking for an entry into the vintage world.