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Old 19 June 2016, 09:26 PM   #61
SMD
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Originally Posted by 68camaro View Post
Gaijin, very thoughtful response, thank you. It'a shame Japan is into the second lost decade of no growth. Unfortunately our Ph'd central bankers forgot that people have option at hoarding their money at low to negative rates as opposed to spending it, now we have war on cash to get people to spend it.



Globally we are on a tough course with no end in sight - at least not a good one.


Negative rates goes hand in hand with eliminating larger currency denominations.
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Old 19 June 2016, 09:58 PM   #62
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I'm 42, but I'm invested so conservatively, it's as if I was 65. And I just instructed my FA to lean towards even safer avenues.

Vast majority is all funds for me.

This is also why I am so determined to live with no debt.

Looking around, I too see a meltdown on the way. I'm kicking save mode into high gear.
Same here Seth, well not the 42 parts, I'm 48

I've worked tremendously hard to become debt free (no mortgage or consumer debt). It's a free feeling and allows me to invest conservatively.

Im not in the doomsday camp, but I think all the ingredients are here for a serious market correction. In Canada we have a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto, those markets have done straight up for the past 15 years or so. What goes up must come down, and hopefully I'm positioned to weather any storm.
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Old 20 June 2016, 12:59 AM   #63
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Same here Seth, well not the 42 parts, I'm 48

I've worked tremendously hard to become debt free (no mortgage or consumer debt). It's a free feeling and allows me to invest conservatively.

Im not in the doomsday camp, but I think all the ingredients are here for a serious market correction. In Canada we have a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto, those markets have done straight up for the past 15 years or so. What goes up must come down, and hopefully I'm positioned to weather any storm.

You know, whenever there is a "should I buy a watch on credit, even at 0%" thread, it makes me cringe. There are many all for it.

I'm staunchly against it.

The reality is the market changes all the time. The best way to keep stability in our own homes, is to have minimal debt. Meaning, the least amount of money required to pay each month.

I too am hoping I'm ready to weather a coming storm. The reality is it is coming. Even if it is in 10 years, it's going to happen. It's a statistical guarantee that there are times of extreme gain and also loss. It literally can't not happen.

The last thing you need at that point is a payment of an extra few hundred dollars a month, for a luxury item. And one that, if (when) the storm happens, will likely plummet in value.
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Old 20 June 2016, 01:32 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by superdog View Post
You know, whenever there is a "should I buy a watch on credit, even at 0%" thread, it makes me cringe. There are many all for it.

I'm staunchly against it.

The reality is the market changes all the time. The best way to keep stability in our own homes, is to have minimal debt. Meaning, the least amount of money required to pay each month.

I too am hoping I'm ready to weather a coming storm. The reality is it is coming. Even if it is in 10 years, it's going to happen. It's a statistical guarantee that there are times of extreme gain and also loss. It literally can't not happen.

The last thing you need at that point is a payment of an extra few hundred dollars a month, for a luxury item. And one that, if (when) the storm happens, will likely plummet in value.
a lot of doom and gloom on here. this thread is like reading zero hedge. none of us know when a correction or crash is coming. yes, one will come, they always do. the problem is, while we will most certainly see another 50% decline in the S&P 500 at some point in our lives, none of us know when it will be. it could be in 10 years when the S&P 500 is at 5000 and falls to 2500 or it could be next year. dollar cost average, keep an asset allocation that allows you to sleep at night, and let the chips fall where they may. if we are headed for a fiat collapse, having a "conservative" asset allocation of bonds relative to stocks wont protect you. we will have a worldwide depression that will most likely last the rest of our lives. but the odds are that this wont happen. but if you dont believe me, take a look at this and see the power of compounding and dollar cost averaging through even the absolute worst of times (the Great Depression). though, of course, this assumes you can stay the course and continue investing when it does truly look like armageddon....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123696727736421823
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Old 20 June 2016, 01:41 AM   #65
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Same here Seth, well not the 42 parts, I'm 48

I've worked tremendously hard to become debt free (no mortgage or consumer debt). It's a free feeling and allows me to invest conservatively.

...
Agree. I am probably in my last four or five years of relatively good income and it is mostly being invested in the home my wife and I plan to retire in: mortgage paid off, new air conditioner/furnace, new fence, property improvements. This year emergency generator and new roof. Next year final interior renovation.

Cars will be paid off in three years. Then relentless reduction of those monthly Internet, TV, cell phone bills. Modest return on our investments plus our pensions will let us maintain our lifestyle. Bad/no return on investments will mean curtailing some discretionary spending.

I guess I could cash out investments and hide it under the mattress, but not at that point yet.
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Old 20 June 2016, 01:43 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by jfmiii View Post
a lot of doom and gloom on here. this thread is like reading zero hedge. none of us know when a correction or crash is coming. yes, one will come, they always do. the problem is, while we will most certainly see another 50% decline in the S&P 500 at some point in our lives, none of us know when it will be. it could be in 10 years when the S&P 500 is at 5000 and falls to 2500 or it could be next year. dollar cost average, keep an asset allocation that allows you to sleep at night, and let the chips fall where they may. if we are headed for a fiat collapse, having a "conservative" asset allocation of bonds relative to stocks wont protect you. we will have a worldwide depression that will most likely last the rest of our lives. but the odds are that this wont happen. but if you dont believe me, take a look at this and see the power of compounding and dollar cost averaging through even the absolute worst of times (the Great Depression). though, of course, this assumes you can stay the course and continue investing when it does truly look like armageddon....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123696727736421823

I agree with you. And I realize I'm overly conservative. I also realize, I'll take a hit no matter where my investments are.

I also agree that in order to capitalize on it, one must have a strong backbone and keep it all going. Right now, that's the plan..
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Old 20 June 2016, 06:42 AM   #67
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I agree with you. And I realize I'm overly conservative. I also realize, I'll take a hit no matter where my investments are.

I also agree that in order to capitalize on it, one must have a strong backbone and keep it all going. Right now, that's the plan..
I do believe crash is coming and my wife and I are heavy into cash to be liquidity provider in market right or soon after crash. As the old saying goes "buy when there is blood in the streets".
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Old 20 June 2016, 07:01 AM   #68
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I do believe crash is coming and my wife and I are heavy into cash to be liquidity provider in market right or soon after crash. As the old saying goes "buy when there is blood in the streets".
Exactly my thoughts too.

But while there is opportunity.

The simple saying, "buy low, sell high", seems to be lost amongst the populace. When things are going up, people get excited and buy. When they going down, they get nervous and sell. Makes no sense. I'm a long term buyer.

And any risk I've got is being coordinated to take advantage when things start to go south. You can make money in any kind of market, if you are making the right moves.

I hope I'm preparing myself properly to do so.

But again, in regards to watches and debt in general, this is why I'm anti debt. I want low monthly expenses and cash on hand for opportunities if/when they arise.
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Old 20 June 2016, 08:19 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by jfmiii View Post
a lot of doom and gloom on here. this thread is like reading zero hedge. none of us know when a correction or crash is coming. yes, one will come, they always do. the problem is, while we will most certainly see another 50% decline in the S&P 500 at some point in our lives, none of us know when it will be. it could be in 10 years when the S&P 500 is at 5000 and falls to 2500 or it could be next year. dollar cost average, keep an asset allocation that allows you to sleep at night, and let the chips fall where they may. if we are headed for a fiat collapse, having a "conservative" asset allocation of bonds relative to stocks wont protect you. we will have a worldwide depression that will most likely last the rest of our lives. but the odds are that this wont happen. but if you dont believe me, take a look at this and see the power of compounding and dollar cost averaging through even the absolute worst of times (the Great Depression). though, of course, this assumes you can stay the course and continue investing when it does truly look like armageddon....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123696727736421823
This
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Old 22 June 2016, 10:14 PM   #70
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Damn, Jan-June report numbers look even worse



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Old 23 June 2016, 04:04 AM   #71
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Damn, Jan-June report numbers look even worse



Yikes
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Old 23 June 2016, 12:12 PM   #72
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To answer your question. Yes.

Well. Let's put it this way. I am making less now doing the exact same job that I was doing 30 years ago here. Back then on a late Friday or Saturday night you couldn't get a taxi home after last train. Every business man seemed to have a work paid taxi account, an expense account at a hostess bar ( or several) and a private golf club membership. Those days are gone.

Kids being recruited by companies while still in college. Incentives. Fighting over graduates. Now students are happy if they can get a full time job. The so called lost generation. 失われた10年

Wages are completely stagnant. People are hoarding any cash they have. Banks pay 0% interest. That being said you can get a home loan for 1% or less. Incredible!

There is absolutely no inflation. Prices just stay the same for years and years. The sales tax was raised from 8% to 10% to pay off debt and there was such a backlash from the populace that it was delayed in being implemented. Just prior to it taking effect there was a consumer spike. Since a downturn in consumer spending. I love Japan and it's my home away from home. I don't know what the answer is. The Japanese people work themselves literally to death. Karoushi. (Death from overwork.)

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.


Prime Minister Abe is doing the best he can. Japan has never recovered from their real estate/stock market bubble crash in the early 90s.

Same fundamentals that I see in China now. The Chinese are paying cash for properties here site unseen. Trying to get any wealth they have out before the inevitable crash. The tour buses here used to be packed with Chinese. The watch shops too. Not seeing that so much.

Sadly, I don't see Japan recovering. Neither do the Japanese. Sorry for the long winded post. I really only scratched the surface. Great country. Great people doing their best.
Interesting and thoughtful response
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Old 23 June 2016, 08:02 PM   #73
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The nice thing about statistics is that they can be massaged to suit anyone's point of view!!personsllyni don't believe 10% reduction in watch exports in value is a train smash considering the heady last few tears. In addition the geographic concentrations will hurt certain manufacturers more than others.
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