Rolex supply issue

[Roger Lococco]

China


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[Speedbird-1]

How many "Oysters" in all forms, did Rolex produce, in say, 2012, compared with 2017/18.
It would be interesting to see the figures for these years also, for the number of Rolex watches exported to USA, China, India, etc.

[AK797]

Yes, I don't think supply is much changed, demand is the big game-changer and both Rolex and ADs are far more careful with whom they sell to now so it just seems like supply is shorter as they are basically allocation pieces in this hot market. The issue is over-demand not under-supply.

[Speedbird-1]

You can't help but wonder, then, if, it's true that, he supply hasn't changed. What was happening to the stockpiles of product, before the recent alleged, surge in demand?
Did all the AD's have safes bursting with watches, like a De Beers underground vault piled high, with a mountain of diamonds.

[Soultime]

But the Chinese/SE Asia didn't become wealthy overnight.
It hasn't suddenly happened in Q3/Q4 2017.
It has been a steady increase in national income for about the last decade.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/d...ersonal-income


Now, if Rolex has suddenly decided to divert supplies over there, that's a different matter. Although, we have had posts on here from people in China recently saying there are no hot models available in the stores.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Soultime

But the Chinese/SE Asia didn't become wealthy overnight.
It hasn't suddenly happened in Q3/Q4 2017.
It has been a steady increase in national income for about the last decade.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/d...ersonal-income


Now, if Rolex has suddenly decided to divert supplies over there, that's a different matter. Although, we have had posts on here from people in China recently saying there are no hot models available in the stores.

China's middle class has been growing for years it is true, but the bribery laws put a halt to the use of Rolexes for a time but they were relaxed last year, so that made a huge difference to demand over there, and it's probable Rolex has taken notice of it.

[Quicksilver]

Originally Posted by Soultime

But the Chinese/SE Asia didn't become wealthy overnight.
It hasn't suddenly happened in Q3/Q4 2017.
It has been a steady increase in national income for about the last decade.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/d...ersonal-income


Now, if Rolex has suddenly decided to divert supplies over there, that's a different matter. Although, we have had posts on here from people in China recently saying there are no hot models available in the stores.

Quite correct. I was in Guangzhou’s flagship Rolex boutique last month and it was plain to see they have the same supply issues as everyone else.


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[jfoord27]

Rolex are allocating more SS sports to China ADs because they sell more precious metal datejusts.

[Devildog]

My take is that Rolex is diverting supply to emerging markets.

Established markets such as Europe and the US are already populated with millions of Rolex watches. China, for one, is just a fledgling market in the grand scheme of things.

[mattza]

Originally Posted by Devildog

My take is that Rolex is diverting supply to emerging markets.

Established markets such as Europe and the US are already populated with millions of Rolex watches. China, for one, is just a fledgling market in the grand scheme of things.

Some others on here have said that genuine Rolexes are all over Hong Kong. Bus drivers, grocery store clerks, janitors are all wearing them and people are buying up Rolexes like nuts there.

Makes sense that they would divert supply to an emerging market which leaves less for United States. People are reporting their AD's are getting 75% less stock in which would fit this scenario.

[Player-VC]

Originally Posted by mattza

Some others on here have said that genuine Rolexes are all over Hong Kong. Bus drivers, grocery store clerks, janitors are all wearing them and people are buying up Rolexes like nuts there.

Makes sense that they would divert supply to an emerging market which leaves less for United States. People are reporting their AD's are getting 75% less stock in which would fit this scenario.

I don’t know about the case in China but in Hong Kong the AD also facing the ss shortage problem.

[Cloudchaser]

That said/written, ADs are under increasing pressure to balance their inventory turns; in other words, ADs who are not properly balanced in regard to what they sell (e.g. Professional vs. Non) don't get professional models allocated until they begin to balance.

Increased demand could certainly be the primary variable in the equation. However, Rolex penalizing out of balance ADs is affecting the supply chain as well.

[oldman2005]

I doubt that's the case. Chinese/Asian are mostly into yellow gold and prefer gold watches and jewelries.

[BillA]

I see more Rolex advertising on TV than ever before.
They sponsor tons of sports events and the winners wear a Rolex more than any other watch.

[bradyb]

It's an increase in extraterrestrial demand. I really didn't want to let the cat out of the bag but we are not alone. And they love Rolex.

[pickettt]

I thought the newly wealthy Chinese had all come here to spend their new riches.

[cvera]

I haven't been to an AD in a while since I don't live super close to any. I'll have to make a drive and see what options I see. Thanks for the information and theories though.

[phraxos5]

There is something going on at the ads. Some watches aren’t making it out of the safe. My sd 43 went from the safe to my wrist. What’s interesting is why we think the ad cares who buys the watch and resells it for a profit. We care about that as consumers because it’s scalping, but why would the ad care unless they can create a situation where consumers feel obligated to buy more items that are not in high demand to became a preferred client to make the ad want to sell the high demand products to them before anyone else. It’s total bs. It’s not Rolex, but it kinda is because they dont do anything to stop it. Hermes. does it with the birken bag by having only certain clients given the chance to buy a Birken bag for the low price. At Hermès there are tiers you attain by how much you spend on other things at Hermès. So some famous people with a lot of money have like 50 Birken bags in every color which have a street value of say up to 100,000+ per bag. They paid say @500,000 for all 50. However the other stuff those people had to spend to get to that tier is hundreds of thousands (possibly millions in some cases)more. We see that it works out well for the company. Let’s hope Rolex does not go that route or the ads. Things aren’t so bad. Remember that the lists are loaded with people that will not come down and buy the watch when they are called. I think it’s the ads that are creating this situation by holding on to items and using them to prod customers to buy other stuff hoping they will buy their way into good standing with the ad. Your watch is out there, in one of the hundreds of ads in the safe or in the case. Most likely in the safe. One thing for sure my sd43 was sold to me as a non local in a seasonal market during tax season. It was the 20 th ad I called and I flew in and rented a car to drive 100 miles to buy it. There was no preferential treatment. I will never sell it but after all it was not a ss Daytona was it!

[colonelpurple]

My understanding is that ADs now prioritise previous customers for wait lists

In addition, there is a notion of a premium customer who has even higher status

In London one dealer mentioned to me around £70k historical expenditure puts you in the premium list.

I happen to chat to a friend of mine who has a big collection and is very wealthy (across all brands) and buys a watch a month. He was called up when one of his ADs got a SS model in stock and effectively he was given priority before the rest of the entire queue

ADs can effectively do what they want whilst demand outstrips supply. Its been that way in every industry since the dawn of time, and will continue to be that way

The best advice if you are hankering after a model not readily available:
1. Look for second hand private sellers on ebay, chrono24, forums or other places where the watch and papers can be examined and can be talked down (don't do if you are not experienced in how to spot genuine Rolexes)
2. Maintain a relationship with 1 AD, and always buy from that AD. You will go up their queue
3. Don't be coned into paying more then retail. That just screws the market for everyone else as well
4. Be patient
5. Always check airport ADs who usually can't have waiting lists. Worth taking short flights sometimes if something in

Otherwise keep calm and enjoy what you have!