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Old 17 October 2018, 01:38 AM   #61
WJGESQ
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Not a bubble. No popping anytime soon.
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Old 17 October 2018, 01:39 AM   #62
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I can’t remember the last time that true luxury goods took a hit - in tough times, the rich get richer. Sad but true.


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The hot models, Hulk, Pepsi and Rootbeer will remain at strong values.
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Old 17 October 2018, 01:47 AM   #63
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There is going to be a Rolex price correction in 2019. There is no way this is sustainable. You are looking at pre-owned steel sports selling above MSRP. I can understand if the watches were discontinued models. However, we are looking at mass produced watches like a Sub or a SD. The following are why I know Rolex price correction is coming:

1. As much as Rolex makes us believe there is a shortage, Rolex is a still mass produced.
2. Lot of people have bought Rolex SS on speculation. If there is a price correction, I see alot of them dumping stock
3. All things run in cycles. Stocks, economy and even watches. Panerai were popular 5 years ago. Like Rolex, used Panerai were sold above retail.

I was in a market for another Rolex but I decided not to purchase it. All the speculations and rumors remind me of the housing bubble in 2008. I saw that coming and i waited after the bubble pop before purchasing properties. I see the same thing here. I am going to wait
Housing bubble was due to government mandated loans (free money) for people who had no money to make payments let alone pay back the loan.

I know there are some that make the grand commitment of an $88 monthly payment for their no-date sub but that's not the majority of Rolex sales. Also unlike stocks, watches are a pain in the butt to sell. That alone will limit Rolex market volatility. Were not going to see 10,000 people waking up and deciding to sell their white daytona C. Not going to happen IMHO.
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Old 17 October 2018, 02:20 AM   #64
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Big big drops in the share market recently. I felt that from the US market and locally in the Australian market.

Went down again today. Chief economists at the big banks stating its a correction that was overdue from unsustainable growth over the past year or so. Just like our watches. LOL
DJIA +350 today.
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Old 17 October 2018, 02:31 AM   #65
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Bubble doesn't apply to Rolex. Its not an investment.
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Old 17 October 2018, 02:49 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Juclaq View Post
There is going to be a Rolex price correction in 2019. There is no way this is sustainable. You are looking at pre-owned steel sports selling above MSRP. I can understand if the watches were discontinued models. However, we are looking at mass produced watches like a Sub or a SD. The following are why I know Rolex price correction is coming:

1. As much as Rolex makes us believe there is a shortage, Rolex is a still mass produced.
2. Lot of people have bought Rolex SS on speculation. If there is a price correction, I see alot of them dumping stock
3. All things run in cycles. Stocks, economy and even watches. Panerai were popular 5 years ago. Like Rolex, used Panerai were sold above retail.

I was in a market for another Rolex but I decided not to purchase it. All the speculations and rumors remind me of the housing bubble in 2008. I saw that coming and i waited after the bubble pop before purchasing properties. I see the same thing here. I am going to wait

I think the price are in a bubble not because of Rolex or Patek or AP..... this bubble is because of grey market and a limited supply from Rolex, AP...
If, we the final owner of the watch can buy our watch directly from AD and not from the grey market the price are be ok.
Rolex BLRO it’s 8400€......,grey market 15000€+
Patek 5711 it’s 26400€....... grey market 40000€+
Yes the price are in the bubble but only on the grey market.....on AD the price are ok and I think even in case of a financial colaps like in 2008 price will remain the same....
Maybe who are buys his watch from grey now are loosing a lot of money.....
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