I like this guy’s theory for the shortage of SS

[Fat_ninja]

I think they made a movie that explains the shortage recently. Lol

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

if i unloaded some of my "hot" watches they would be sold to a secondary dealer as im not messing with doing it myself. They you see them there and assume it came directly from an AD. It didn't, it came from me who bought it at an AD.

People are vastly underestimating the number of individual flippers who buy at an AD and then sell to a secondary dealer. The dealer is just a middle man in many cases not the source.

Yes, but there are individuals are more than just simple flippers, they are essentially like wholesale brokers. They do so much volume I think they deserve a separate designation....

There a people behind the scenes in the grey market that many have never heard of and it will stay that way as they will absolutely never deal with the general public. They don't have websites or the such...what they do get is a great supply of watches from loose AD's and those get to the grey market in abundance.

From the AD perspective it is much easier and profitable to sell the watches out the door in bundles to the brokers or greys themselves.

I know this is an ego busting statement, but there are some AD who don't like customers. Yes, that's right. They consider the general public to be a hassle and a huge PITA, so if there is a "guy" who will buy xxx watches on essentially a cash basis and over retail for some references, (jewelers extend wholesale credit lines or run through IWJG), thus avoiding credit card fees or consumer financing buy downs, for what will be a seamless transaction, then some AD choose that path.

[storm66]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

if i unloaded some of my "hot" watches they would be sold to a secondary dealer as im not messing with doing it myself. They you see them there and assume it came directly from an AD. It didn't, it came from me who bought it at an AD.

People are vastly underestimating the number of individual flippers who buy at an AD and then sell to a secondary dealer. The dealer is just a middle man in many cases not the source.

You see it all the time on here,where people write-
Had my ceramic Daytona 3 months now but can’t read the dial,shall I sell it?
Or
The jubilee bracelet it’s not as comfortable as I thought,shall I sell it?
Or
The red and blue aren’t what I thought they would be?

Ok.....so I’m just jealous and bitter that my GMT hasn’t materialised yet from my AD and having just read this thread it doesn’t seem as though I’ll ever get it

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by storm66

You see it all the time on here,where people write-
Had my ceramic Daytona 3 months now but can’t read the dial,shall I sell it?
Or
The jubilee bracelet it’s not as comfortable as I thought,shall I sell it?
Or
The red and blue aren’t what I thought they would be?

Ok.....so I’m just jealous and bitter that my GMT hasn’t materialised yet from my AD and having just read this thread it doesn’t seem as though I’ll ever get it

you will get it eventually... and everyone selling them got them at an AD as who is flipping a watch they paid double retail for? Then you really have to like it and keep it as you are not making any money.

IMO that should make you feel better as those people probably all got the watch at retail from an AD. Reading many comments though there is a perception none of these watches go to customers and are all pushed out the back door which is ridiculous.

I am not flipping my watches, i was speaking hypothetically BTW

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Yes, but there are individuals are more than just simple flippers, they are essentially like wholesale brokers. They do so much volume I think they deserve a separate designation....

There a people behind the scenes in the grey market that many have never heard of and it will stay that way as they will absolutely never deal with the general public. They don't have websites or the such...what they do get is a great supply of watches from loose AD's and those get to the grey market in abundance.

From the AD perspective it is much easier and profitable to sell the watches out the door in bundles to the brokers or greys themselves.

I know this is an ego busting statement, but there are some AD who don't like customers. Yes, that's right. They consider the general public to be a hassle and a huge PITA, so if there is a "guy" who will buy xxx watches on essentially a cash basis and over retail for some references, (jewelers extend wholesale credit lines or run through IWJG), thus avoiding credit card fees or consumer financing buy downs, for what will be a seamless transaction, then some AD choose that path.

I divide the stock secondary dealers have into two categories:

1. Individual flippers looking to make a buck and sell their watch to them. Lots of those types

2. People who are a dealer or who are affiliated with a secondary dealer. They get the hot watches because they buy up so much AD stock since everyone wants bigger discounts on non hot models and that is their reward for helping the AD out of a jam.... that is OUR fault for buying secondary market at bigger discounts only available because someone is buying in bulk. Not the AD' fault.

Either way, its not the AD's fault for individual flippers who flip their one watch they happen to get from an AD to a dealer and not their fault for the grey dealer who gets some hot watches for buying stock in bulk that regular customers wont buy without a bulk discount and will never get for one watch. If people would just buy watches without big discounts it would be unnecessary to unload them in bulk in the first place. People fail to make the connection that discounts are why the secondary dealers have gotten so big and now also have a lot of hot watches too.

[michael.michael]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

If this is the case, ss upgraded movement models should have now flooded in the market, but the fact is they are no where to be found. Make no sense, if they want to reduce 48 hours pr inventories but hold the supply at the same time.

[ttechdoc]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

This

[rlx123]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

Agree 100%. I think The AD’s are partly responsible for this, but Rolex is also responsible for the thriving gray by forcing too many undesirable references to the AD’s. And sharing the responsibility for this shortage are flippers like some of you in this forum.

[Rodrigo082]

There is definitely no a shortage of SS Rolex models.
The issue is simply, great dealers appear to AD like great customers as they purchase several watches every year, so actually these are the so called “VIP customers”.

Shortage is when there is no enough inventory but actually there is, even to catch up with demand.

I have seen Grey dealers in Asia with their windows full Daytona’s (both dial) BLRO, BLNR, LV, Sky Dwellers...

Actually I saw a dealer in Germany (Stuttgart area) with 15* BLNR in the shop.

There is definitely not shortage!!!

[bdex75]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I know this is an ego busting statement, but there are some AD who don't like customers. Yes, that's right. They consider the general public to be a hassle and a huge PITA, so if there is a "guy" who will buy xxx watches on essentially a cash basis and over retail for some references, (jewelers extend wholesale credit lines or run through IWJG), thus avoiding credit card fees or consumer financing buy downs, for what will be a seamless transaction, then some AD choose that path.

This is more true that one may know.

If you are an AD and you can sell every hot model out the back door for msrp or over. Never have to give anyone the “free financing” or hear them bitch every time “the date changes at 12:02, not right at midnight” or “the secondhand seems to jump” or whatever other hairbrained things people come up with, why wouldn’t you?

And you keep your inventory moving so rolex keeps feeding the beast.

And when a good customer comes in that you want to work with you can get a piece within a week or two? That isn’t by chance.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[harvey]

Good theory but it really depends on your relationship with your AD. The two guys at my AD know me, my collection and that I am a customer for life. Whenever they can they always help me out.

[rolexrealfan]

Hi All, just to confirm this post , a friend of mine is a Rolex Watchmaker , and told me last week the exact same thing about Rolex movements change , explaining the actual Shortage for SS Sports Models.


Envoyé de mon iPad en utilisant Tapatalk

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by bdex75

This is more true that one may know.

If you are an AD and you can sell every hot model out the back door for msrp or over. Never have to give anyone the “free financing” or hear them bitch every time “the date changes at 12:02, not right at midnight” or “the secondhand seems to jump” or whatever other hairbrained things people come up with, why wouldn’t you?

And you keep your inventory moving so rolex keeps feeding the beast.

And when a good customer comes in that you want to work with you can get a piece within a week or two? That isn’t by chance.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

The general perception seems that AD should be honored to cater to our every whim and that they couldn't possibly be bothered enough by customer neurosis, entitlement syndrome or other nasty personality traits to skip all that and sell to the grey market or only their selected whales?

Yep. There are some AD's who couldn't care less about your business. They just can't be bothered and set up their own pipeline that makes them more money, with less hassle. Not all AD's are like this for sure, but there is a significant number who are...

[J!m]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

Profound. And I believe, accurate.

As long as the dirty ADs are in the majority, we will we a shortage. When Rolex tracks a watch back, the AD is in some deep smelly stuff...

Just look at the parts for sale on EBay etc. They all suddenly have the codes blacked out. Do you think that’s coincidental? I think it’s because ADs selling parts out the back door got a wake up call as well...

[J!m]

Originally Posted by Kostas

I kid you not, I had a AD dealer tell me that a super wealthy person from Taiwan made a contract with Rolex that in the next 5 years he would get priority to the majority of SS pieces supplied by Rolex, hence the shortage.

He told me this with a serious face

I call complete BS on this (as I suspect you do as well) because Rolex doesn’t need to sell watches. All the business school graduates are trying to apply a typical business model to a very non-typical business. The rules just don’t apply here - they do as they please.

I do foresee a significant reduction in the number of ADs globally. I think they may end up going the “boutique “ route, so the distribution is fully under Rolex control as well. This shift won’t happen over night (although they could if inclined) but I suspect it will happen over five or so years. The best, most upstanding ADs May get converted (or bought out) and the rest closed down as they build their boutiques.

[J!m]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What do you mean? Most my warranty cards came blank. They dont need a name on the card at all. It could be Joe Blow or Blinky Bill for anyone cares.

Rolex don't care about names on cards and to put it through the ADs books as a normal sale is like the simplest thing to do. Just say it sold for $12k and backdoor it to a Gray dealer at $15-16k and pocket the difference. Whats hard about it?

Its an extra $5k in your hand doing zilch. Dont care who you are you aint going to throw away $5k especially if you can make it in 2 mins doing nothing

What’s really cool about this proposed situation is that the AD is also risking prison for tax evasion on top of losing their AD status... if they are making 3, 5 or more thousand, on every transaction (and we seem to be looking at several a month) that is a rather significant crime.

I don’t know, but I THINK I have enough popcorn to see this to the end. The down side for me is that I don’t foresee myself buying a new Rolex from an AD for perhaps as much as the next decade. I’m probably not alone in that.

Now if I’m a first generation Rolex owner (and I am, but all vintage stuff- digression) and I can’t buy one new, how do you think that will impact future sales? They are not going out of business any time soon, but they might have a drop in sales/demand because our kids, who didn’t see mom and dad with the brand, will not be connected to the brand.

I know that’s far long game vision for a forum focused on “which brand new model will appreciate the fastest “ etc... But for brand awareness, which is what Rolex is all about, it’s a blow.

Sorry to ruin your Monday with deep thought on wristwatches for crying out loud. In the grand scheme, not much could matter less. Maybe we should end a war or feed some starving kids. Let the scheming ADs starve instead.

[J!m]

Originally Posted by Seibei

I think it is complete nonsense. To me the difference between a 48 and 70 hour power reserve is trivial. If someone asked me if I wanted to increase the power reserve of my watch from 48 to 70 hours and the price for this would be $50, then I would politely decline. Having more power reserve may also have a downside. It may impact reliability in the long run.

The current Rolex situation is not helping Omega and Panerai, etc. It is just making those watches look more ordinary and it prompts people to ask questions when those manufacturers are asking Rolex prices for watches that are clearly inferior to Rolex.

The Rolex shortage is occurring because:

1. Rolex is not increasing production much.

2. Global demand for certain models within the Rolex range has increased considerably.

It is not any more complicated than that, there is no evil plan behind the scenes.

I don’t think those watches are in any way inferior. But I do agree they are riding the coattails of Rolex because if the (market price- not MSRP) is “X” for a model ‘similar to ours, but we have other technology that is unique to our brand too, why not increase our MSRP to what the market will clearly bear’? Because unlike Rolex, those other brands are public and have an obligation to turn a profit.

[DJRikki]

I reckon their factories are running at capacity and say thats 1m a year production but demand has increased dramatically the past couple of years but they havent doubled the number of factories ...

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours...”

The new SS BLRO is already using the new movement so this doesn't explain it IMO. Sorry I doubt that's reason

[rlx123]

Originally Posted by padi56

A theory is just that a theory IMHO it sound like bullsh#te, today all the movements are made on the Aegler side of the RWC group they took control around 2004, movements like say the cal 3135 made in there thousands, many hundreds down the COSC being tested.Hundreds returning passed and failed then stored in there thousands till matched to a case.At the Swiss COSC they only tests movements at their barest functional level. All movements are machine wound hundreds at a time by the winding stem,all automatic watches have there winding rotors removed. Because the machine that winds them that fast it would damage the highly geared automatic winding mechanism.Even dial and hands are removed special ones are fitted at COSC test centre.Movements are checked every 24 hours by electronic camera linked to central computer.Rolex has there own special machine to test its vast quantities of movements. These are loaded into magazines like bullets. The machine extracts the movement, reads it, winds it and returns it to the magazine.And some of you guys worry about winding your watch manually.Its possible they could have a problem at the Swiss COSC testing movements for certification .

Yes the new 32 series are different to the 31 series but a lot of parts will interchange it's exactly the same size as the 31 movment.Today like most all high volume watch brands production is highly machine robotised.Once you have the tooling set for any modified movement you can churn them out much like the 15,31 series did.So cannot see why there would be any difference to production no matter the movement that's in the case.Myself extra powereserve is far down the list of importance in any watch, as those very nice people from Rolex on one side of the watch.They have put a round thing that you simple pull out and wind forward, guess what its called a winding crown.

Oh my goodness!!!!!! Your grammar needs some work. I can overlook a few mistakes, but when people are trying very hard to figure out what you are writing, then you really did not communicate your point well.