Prices are not dropping!

[Tavli3]

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

[mgsooner]

This board is such a joy these days

[vinny84]

What you’re reading and watching is speculation by people that have been in the industry for awhile.

Does it means it’s going to happen? No

If there is going to be any correction, it’s going to happen when and if we go into a world recession which hasn’t happen yet.

[2nastie]

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

[Frank McKay]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

I was just about to say that.

[1665fan]

BLNR on this forum is 16.5k...auction buyers have more money than sense

[sillo]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

Yeah auction prices are not good judgments of anything except for the most rare and expensive. For something like a BLNR I'd ignore the auction prices and look right here on the forum.

[Tavli3]

As a buyer and collector I would agree with you but I think the sellers would strongly disagree with us.

[Catatafish]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

BLNR on this forum is 16.5k...auction buyers have more money than sense

This is what I was thinking. I've been watching some auctions lately and it seems like there are a bunch of Thurston Howell the III types sitting in the audience with no clue what the actual market is. Maybe they think, ah it's an auction so I MUST be getting the market price.

[glamorama]

It would be more interesting if someone actually came forward and said “I paid those prices, this week” but nobody dares.

[enjoythemusic]

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

[sillo]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

I hear there’s speculation - both for and against, whether this will happen!

[Anton911]

The people who think and pray that the prices are dropping of the sought after models ie blnr,Lv Daytona etc are the people who do not own these pieces and are continually looking for an excuse or slight change in one example advertised to suddenly jump to conclusions that the prices are dropping.
It’s wishful thinking and they are definitely not so get used to the new normal and stop belly aching about prices dropping.
If you want that watch and can’t get it from your AD,just pay grey prices,as those prices are here to stay and will probably increase further.

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The people who think and pray that the prices are dropping of the sought after models ie blnr,Lv Daytona etc are the people who do not own these pieces and are continually looking for an excuse or slight change in one example advertised to suddenly jump to conclusions that the prices are dropping.

Not that I have a dog in this fight at all, but the exact opposite can be said too. People who are hoping and praying they keep going up are the ones that own them and want to make money.

Either way I don't think the market is as volatile right now as some of these threads make it out to be. If you look at a small enough period of time there will be fluctuations. Looking at a more macro scale all I've seen is up.

And does it really matter if a watch goes from 50% over MSRP to 30% over. I'd still consider 30% over MSRP a pretty strong market.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by The Libertine

I hear there’s speculation - both for and against, whether this will happen!

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

[Furrygoat]

This seems like the exact type of thread a desperate price dropper would start

[Likestheshiny]

I don't mind the discussion and speculation, but it annoys me when folks come in and make sweeping claims based on weak, incomplete evidence. It reeks of "I want people to notice me," and feels like clickbait.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Steven with all due respect and I say this nonmaliciously, if these types of threads offend you or anybody else, nothing says you have to read them.

I find threads of whether it's safe to wear my Rolex in a public Men's Room and such as idiotic but I just pass over those threads and don't comment.

We are in uncharted waters these days and unfortunately that's the state of affairs we find ourselves in as collectors. Availability and pricing are a big part of the watch buying experience today. I don't like any more than anyone else does. But I do find it intriguing that there is a 25% price difference between Trusted Sellers and Auction prices. We can easily just chalk it up to auction people being all idiots but I doubt that's the case. There's more to it than that, what it is I have no idea.

Since prices are everywhere from ridiculous to insane and we can't get any watches, not even a DJ41 what should we talk about? Should it just be the Rolex Incoming or my dog licked my crystal, what do I do now Forum?

Before I joined and then decided to become a Pledge member I saw a Blue Sky Dweller on someone I was sitting next to in a restaurant and at that time I knew nothing about watches. So I asked him what it was and he told me. So now that i was in a psoition to actually buy one I went into the local Mayors store and got my head handed to me when I asked for a blue sky dweller.

After that I figured I better do some studying so I started reading the Forum and found out all about the shortages which I knew nothing about. And then I got in the vintage pieces and learned enough to buy one vintage piece from ebay and one from C24 without getting ripped off from the knowledge and very helpful people here that I consider real experts. The knowledge I got from them and the Forum in general was worth 100 times my Pledge money.

My point being is that the Forum is helpful to new comers in many many ways and it could be this kind of thread that helps someone from over paying or getting ripped off.

Again no offense intended.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

Steven with all due respect and I say this nonmaliciously...

Wonderful posts and appreciate the dialog. Agree threads like this should be on TRF as members are interested, yet all we need in another sub-forum under the Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics and call it "Speculation, Pricing...." and whatever other topic fall into that as the title of that sub-board.

Thus members will have a place to post, learn, and (hopefully) have fun. IMHO the original topic of this thread seems so popular as to nearly require it's own section anyway imho.

Please TRF. Mods / admins, at least start a vote, let us members decide. Please. Anything other than wading though more.... in the Rolex General Discussion. Pricing, speculation is NOT Rolex General Discussion, it needs a sub-board.

[pkincy]

Were those out the door auction prices or hammer prices. Remember out the door prices are generallly 10% higher. Also it is no secret why the auction houses serve free liquor at their events.

[DTap]

Great post. This bear will interpret the request for a separate section on pricing as the equivalent of my barber talking about the stock market. If the discussion is becoming that rampant, it’s turning a corner and the end is near,

[dayman]

cool story bro...

[exador]

The pre-owned BLRO sold for $25k plus buyers premium of 25% meaning a final price of $31,250.

A bog standard 16710 sold for $30k including premium.

These auctions have long been known to be a source of money laundering

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...less?locale=en

[ian.thomas]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

I vote we make Steven a mod so he can keep up with moving all of these threads to the 'new' section.

[Chewbacca]

Nah.

These pricing and valuation question threads engage people to participate, register and quite frankly, come back... they're harmless.

Now, those WO grandpas Rolex real v. f___ and the caustic Never Ending Story and Word Assoc. threads... those are scary!

[TimeToWatch]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

[dkast85]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

hey! Phish! Nice.