“Not a Supply Issue / There is NO Shortage” Says Govberg

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by CashGap

Sigh.

So, I guess there are two schools of thought here:

Camp A - All the Rolexes end up at end users eventually. Most go from the AD to an end user. Some go from an AD to a grey, or AD to flipper to grey, and then to an end user. End of day, the watches end up with an end user, except the miniscule current inventory of greys. This is supported by the explosion in wealth worldwide and all observable data.

Camp B - Greys are amassing amounts of Rolexes that will soon equal the mass of the moon. A few Rolexes go from AD to an end user (and these are the "only truly worthy buyers/only true watch lovers/other affectionate term"). Some go from an AD to grey to end user, some from AD to flipper to grey to end user. But the real problem is that more and more are piling up at the greys, yet those greys continue to have the cash to buy more and more of inventory they can't move. This is supported by a belief that rich people have mostly stopped wearing watches, except Apple watches. Though the government is uninvolved beyond their involvement in other retail businesses, this is not a free market. It would only be free if Rolex flexed muscles and made more rules.

Did I at least capture the theories? I'm not trying to mock the obviously flawed insane theory, just trying to understand it.

Well, I’m in Camp A... and I think you captured that fairly.

Do some wolves hoard ALS and FPJ and some McNuggets because they want to sell at a higher price later? Sure. But, McNuggets are a commodity, the market leader, the favorite, with massive brand power, and more customers than all the other players... and better suited for the quick flip.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Woah, ok let’s focus in on the “do some go out the back door, not not a lot in the scheme....” comment. Really, any given search at your local gray I mean wolf den lol shows they are scoping up dozens and it’s every single week, they have a new supply and it’s not one; but hundreds of gray dealers and it’s all the time 24/7. The average consumer even WiS may collect 5-10 in a lifetime the wolves are buying 5-10 every singe week year after year. The average Rolex buyer may buy one
In a lifetime and are not watch nuts like us.

There are only so many AD and so many, very many wolves are feeding there. And to the other gentleman’s point who presented the data people increasingly have the cash but they need to go to the gray den and pony up. Now insta has created a frenzy where people want the latest and greatest and are willing to pay more than MSRP to have what they want.

Wolves are in the middle. Without end user demand, the need for wolves disappears. There are more wolves, because there is money to be made due to the increased demand for McNuggets — fueled in part by the differential between $1.00 acquisition price, $2.00 trade price, and $3.00 market price. Wolves are competing to satisfy end user demand.

In the past, DSW would buy for $1.50 and sell for $2.00. Prices are going up. So, DSW now offers $2.00 to sell at $3.00.

New wolves like TPG want to cash in and are willing to buy for $2.50 and sell for $3.00.

But they aren’t buying to hold. They want velocity. More transactions with very fast turnaround.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Wolves are in the middle. Without end user demand, the need for wolves disappears. There are more wolves, because there is money to be made due to the increased demand for McNuggets — fueled in part by the differential between $1.00 acquisition price, $2.00 trade price, and $3.00 market price. Wolves are competing to satisfy end user demand.

In the past, DSW would buy for $1.50 and sell for $2.00. Prices are going up. So, DSW now offers $2.00 to sell at $3.00.

New wolves like TPG want to cash in and are willing to buy for $2.50 and sell for $3.00.

But they aren’t buying to hold. They want velocity. More transactions with very fast turnaround.

Interesting and I’ll consider that. I’m just glad to be on the sideline in this mess, as I don’t feel myself being pulled to any 6 digit references at this point and I have little reason to think that will change given Rolex trend in the past few years that. The feeding frenzy has actually made me pull away from Rolex and I find myself wearing it less and less recently.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by Chester01

And then in 2016ish an explosion went off and bam, nothing. Hmm, right around the time I started seeing so many gray market folks peddling their wears and all the sudden, shelves went empty. Did everyone suddenly overnight get 100k raises and why did this demand spike at a exactly the same time as the spike in number of gray market dealers in a lock step fashion. Hmm.


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Dow Jones went from 18,114 on Oct 2016 to approx 32,300 today.

That’s quite an increase. It generated significant wealth in the USA and abroad too.

You’re asking if everyone got a $100,000 raise and the answer is: yes, sort of.

The number of millionaires in the US went from about 10,000,000 to about 19,000,000 in that period of time.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Krash

Dow Jones went from 18,114 on Oct 2016 to approx 32,300 today.

That’s quite an increase. It generated significant wealth in the USA and abroad too.

You’re asking if everyone got a $100,000 raise and the answer is: yes, sort of.

The number of millionaires in the US went from about 10,000,000 to about 19,000,000 in that period of time.


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It did and so folks can afford to pay above MSRP. But one can corner the market in anything.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by Chester01

It did and so folks can afford to pay above MSRP. But one can corner the market in anything.


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Congratulations!

You went from denying a mass increase in wealth from 2016 to 2021 to finally acknowledging it.

Anecdotally, I still say that most incomings we see on TRF are from ADs, not gray market.

I always see posts where people say, “got the call from my AD today, my watch is here.”

And that’s from the people that post...I’m guessing most people that get a new Rolex don’t post anything on these forums.


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[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Chester01

It did and so folks can afford to pay above MSRP. But one can corner the market in anything.

Nobody is cornering the market for any Rolexes. There are hundreds (maybe thousands) of dealers and amateur flippers.

If a specific reference is about to be discontinued... sure, dealers will try to buy up as many Hulks at $14K as possible because they are speculating they will sell for $17K in a few months. And, we all know (because they are so blatant about it) how Watchbox is trying to buy as many ALS and FBJ as possible because there is fatter margin and limited supply.

But, Rolex is a commodity. 95% of secondary dealers don't have the working capital to have millions in inventory tied up in watches. They want to buy and sell as fast as possible. The big ones have the capital to operate with slightly longer time horizons.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by CashGap

Sigh.

So, I guess there are two schools of thought here:

Camp A - All the Rolexes end up at end users eventually. Most go from the AD to an end user. Some go from an AD to a grey, or AD to flipper to grey, and then to an end user. End of day, the watches end up with an end user, except the miniscule current inventory of greys. This is supported by the explosion in wealth worldwide and all observable data.

I think this is correct but it seems a pretty steady inventory. I've been following for almost a year and BLNR (126710) listings on C24 of about 300-400. Hulk is about 500-600. Now, there are people who don't have the watch in stock and listed for sale but there are plenty of (more) sellers who aren't selling on C24 so let's assume these numbers are roughly equal for the sake of projection. Of the 3-400 or so BLNR watches listed at any given time, what percent of the inventory does that make up, annually? I'm guessing it's significant. We don't know the turnover rate but I'm guessing it's a decent number.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

I think this is correct but it seems a pretty steady inventory. I've been following for almost a year and BLNR (126710) listings on C24 of about 300-400. Hulk is about 500-600. Now, there are people who don't have the watch in stock and listed for sale but there are plenty of (more) sellers who aren't selling on C24 so let's assume these numbers are roughly equal for the sake of projection. Of the 3-400 or so BLNR watches listed at any given time, what percent of the inventory does that make up, annually? I'm guessing it's significant. We don't know the turnover rate but I'm guessing it's a decent number.

It's a trickle... trust me.

First of all, C24 perceived inventory is phony. Lots of pieces that are NOT BNIB, or listed at $21K or more, or just plain aren't real. Very few real BNIB 2021 BLNRs available in your local market. For example, in the United States, I would say there are app. TEN (10) actual real listings for a brand new 2021 BLNR in the U.S. at a real price. ONLY 10.

Secondly, Rolex makes plenty of BLNRs. Customers buy that watch to wear -- not to flip. Do some of them (under 5%) flip it for a quick $4,000? Sure. But it's safe to say the overwhelmingly majority of brand new BLNRs are in the hands of Rolex-loving customers -- not secondary resellers.

[Crazy Lugs]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Wolves are in the middle. Without end user demand, the need for wolves disappears. There are more wolves, because there is money to be made due to the increased demand for McNuggets — fueled in part by the differential between $1.00 acquisition price, $2.00 trade price, and $3.00 market price. Wolves are competing to satisfy end user demand.

In the past, DSW would buy for $1.50 and sell for $2.00. Prices are going up. So, DSW now offers $2.00 to sell at $3.00.

New wolves like TPG want to cash in and are willing to buy for $2.50 and sell for $3.00.

But they aren’t buying to hold. They want velocity. More transactions with very fast turnaround.

Astute observation. In one of the recent TPG “day in the life” vids he mentioned they kick pieces over the the dealer wholesale market if they don’t sell on the retail side within three days.

It is interesting how many watch sales are Dealer to Dealer almost in perpetuity- a kind of hot potato game where the price increases each time another dealer touches the watch.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by vh2k

It's a trickle... trust me.

First of all, C24 perceived inventory is phony. Lots of pieces that are NOT BNIB, or listed at $21K or more, or just plain aren't real. Very few real BNIB 2021 BLNRs available in your local market. For example, in the United States, I would say there are app. TEN (10) actual real listings for a brand new 2021 BLNR in the U.S. at a real price. ONLY 10.

Secondly, Rolex makes plenty of BLNRs. Customers buy that watch to wear -- not to flip. Do some of them (under 5%) flip it for a quick $4,000? Sure. But it's safe to say the overwhelmingly majority of brand new BLNRs are in the hands of Rolex-loving customers -- not secondary resellers.

Based on the filtering options there are 235 BNIB BLNRs available. Not 2021 mind you. But I think you are underestimating.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Based on the filtering options there are 235 BNIB BLNRs available. Not 2021 mind you. But I think you are underestimating.

It's somewhere between 10 and 235! Ha.

It's NOTHING compared to how many BLNRs are shipped to ADs every year.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Nobody is cornering the market for any Rolexes. There are hundreds (maybe thousands) of dealers and amateur flippers.

If a specific reference is about to be discontinued... sure, dealers will try to buy up as many Hulks at $14K as possible because they are speculating they will sell for $17K in a few months. And, we all know (because they are so blatant about it) how Watchbox is trying to buy as many ALS and FBJ as possible because there is fatter margin and limited supply.

But, Rolex is a commodity. 95% of secondary dealers don't have the working capital to have millions in inventory tied up in watches. They want to buy and sell as fast as possible. The big ones have the capital to operate with slightly longer time horizons.

No one is cornering the market? So a few buy up large quantities of stock and jack the price. Sounds like the definition of cornering the market.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Krash

Congratulations!

You went from denying a mass increase in wealth from 2016 to 2021 to finally acknowledging it.

Anecdotally, I still say that most incomings we see on TRF are from ADs, not gray market.

I always see posts where people say, “got the call from my AD today, my watch is here.”

And that’s from the people that post...I’m guessing most people that get a new Rolex don’t post anything on these forums.


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No, my argument is far more nuanced than that. Some got richer yes, most got poorer. Those that got rich may or may not want Rolex.

But yes i agree with you I think most here do get from the AD and I for one won’t pay above MSRP. Too many good watches out there for that.


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[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Chester01

No one is cornering the market? So a few buy up large quantities of stock and jack the price. Sounds like the definition of cornering the market.

Buying 10 Hulks is cornering the market? If one wanted to truly amass a large inventory of a particular reference, they would have to offer so much more than current trade price and do that for a prolonged period of time. It doesn't make business sense.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Nobody is cornering the market for any Rolexes. There are hundreds (maybe thousands) of dealers and amateur flippers.

If a specific reference is about to be discontinued... sure, dealers will try to buy up as many Hulks at $14K as possible because they are speculating they will sell for $17K in a few months. And, we all know (because they are so blatant about it) how Watchbox is trying to buy as many ALS and FBJ as possible because there is fatter margin and limited supply.

But, Rolex is a commodity. 95% of secondary dealers don't have the working capital to have millions in inventory tied up in watches. They want to buy and sell as fast as possible. The big ones have the capital to operate with slightly longer time horizons.

Let me add this my friend. If you, me and say 100 of our friends get together and start massively buying toilet paper on a large scale and the companies don’t increase production, you don’t think we can charge more money than MSRP? Come on now? The answer is yes we can, and we could do so without added demand.


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[ap1]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Let me add this my friend. If you, me and say 100 of our friends get together and start massively buying toilet paper on a large scale and the companies don’t increase production, you don’t think we can charge more money than MSRP? Come on now? The answer is yes we can, and we could do so without added demand.


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But YOU (and 100 others) bought TP massively and everyone else didn’t so, yes you did increase demand. More likely you pulled future demand forward if it sits in the basement waiting for covid 21 or whatever

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Buying 10 Hulks is cornering the market? If one wanted to truly amass a large inventory of a particular reference, they would have to offer so much more than current trade price and do that for a prolonged period of time. It doesn't make business sense.

Not 10, but how many hulks would you say that the thousand or so gray dealers amass each month? I don’t know but a heck of a lot more than 10 means less for us.


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[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Not 10, but how many hulks would you say that the thousand or so gray dealers amass each month? I don’t know but a heck of a lot more than 10 means less for us.


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There is a Japanese seller on C24 who has 11 Hulks for sale and recently raised the price by $1000 (they are all priced the same). It doesn't take much for one seller to alter the price structure of the market for a discontinued watch.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by vh2k

It's a trickle... trust me.

First of all, C24 perceived inventory is phony. Lots of pieces that are NOT BNIB, or listed at $21K or more, or just plain aren't real. Very few real BNIB 2021 BLNRs available in your local market. For example, in the United States, I would say there are app. TEN (10) actual real listings for a brand new 2021 BLNR in the U.S. at a real price. ONLY 10.

Secondly, Rolex makes plenty of BLNRs. Customers buy that watch to wear -- not to flip. Do some of them (under 5%) flip it for a quick $4,000? Sure. But it's safe to say the overwhelmingly majority of brand new BLNRs are in the hands of Rolex-loving customers -- not secondary resellers.

Absolutely. I can’t believe people still use C24 as a measurement of grey market inventory. Those ads are phony. The watches listed are not on hand.

There really only a few large grey dealers who have the strength...the absolute strength to inventory every single watch they list for sale. No fake ads. They have it and wouldn’t post it if they didn’t. It’s not only that the other guys don’t.....they literally CAN’T. The simply don’t have the money and cash flow.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Absolutely. I can’t believe people still use C24 as a measurement of grey market inventory. Those ads are phony. The watches listed are not on hand.

There really only a few large grey dealers who have the strength...the absolute strength to inventory every single watch they list for sale. No fake ads. They have it and wouldn’t post it if they didn’t. It’s not only that the other guys don’t.....they literally CAN’T. The simply don’t have the money and cash flow.

As I wrote above, this can be checked. There are filters that allow you to drill down the numbers.

[liu_watch]

It’s interesting that Omega and Cartier, the second and third largest watch manufacturers by sales, don’t suffer from the sudden surge in demand around 2017. Everyone in the world discovered Rolex in 2017. Or maybe all the resellers discovered Rolex...?

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

There is a Japanese seller on C24 who has 11 Hulks for sale and recently raised the price by $1000 (they are all priced the same). It doesn't take much for one seller to alter the price structure of the market for a discontinued watch.

Good for them. You can buy an 18-month old Hulk from DSW for under $20K.

I don't care if dealers in Japan, Romania, or Russia list 50 Hulks for $50K. They don't have them and/or won't sell.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by liu_watch

It’s interesting that Omega and Cartier, the second and third largest watch manufacturers by sales, don’t suffer from the sudden surge in demand around 2017. Everyone in the world discovered Rolex in 2017. Or maybe all the resellers discovered Rolex...?

Rolex is the gold standard. It's the undisputed market leader. One of the best brands in the world. People want Rolex!

And because Rolex holds its value (and some models arguably increase in value)... the demand for Rolex is increasing while 95% of the other Swiss brands are faltering.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Absolutely. I can’t believe people still use C24 as a measurement of grey market inventory. Those ads are phony. The watches listed are not on hand.

There really only a few large grey dealers who have the strength...the absolute strength to inventory every single watch they list for sale. No fake ads. They have it and wouldn’t post it if they didn’t. It’s not only that the other guys don’t.....they literally CAN’T. The simply don’t have the money and cash flow.

All I can tell you is that when I sold a watch on c24 I had to jump through a bunch of hoops to post the watch for sale to prove I had that exact watch it in my possession. I had to post like 4 pictures within a few minutes setting the watch to random times....sooo it may actually be some what of a measure. Then of course one can just check the major players sites and they also have plenty. They seem to always beat me. Just when I am about to walk into the AD, they seem to be one step ahead. Must simply be bad luck because they beat me each and every day. I know they beat me because they are always in stock.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Rolex is the gold standard. It's the undisputed market leader. One of the best brands in the world. People want Rolex!

And because Rolex holds its value (and some models arguably increase in value)... the demand for Rolex is increasing while 95% of the other Swiss brands are faltering.

Exactly


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[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Some people cope better if they have something to focus their frustration on. A scapegoat, be it unethical ADs, Rolex conspiracy, or evil grey dealers is easier for them to swallow than something simple like supply and demand.

Love this. Very true. It’s a cope

[teck21]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

Love this. Very true. It’s a cope

The exclusive (in the getting excluded from ownership sense of the word) nature of Rolex buying today means many are not allowed to ‘join the club’.

It is emotionally very hurtful to feel excluded.

Each ‘incoming’ post evokes repressed feelings of envy and jealousy because nobody likes to admit that they’re jealous. No no.

Lashing out at the forces keeping them out is, as you guys have put it, simply an emotional self defence.

It feels better to play the victim card than acknowledge the truth.


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[mips33]

Go check out the videos on youtube of the grey market dealers in Hong Kong. Multiples of every model ready to try and buy. There is no shortage of goods, there is a shortage at a specific price. It's all a shell game and everyone is in on it (Rolex, AD, Grey, etc)

[TheVTCGuy]

I guess I mine as well tell all of you now.... sigh.... You see....



I HAVE ALL THE SS SPORT MODELS.


I have been hoarding them for years, about five to be exact. Ever see that show: “Hoarders?” That is what my house looks like, the only difference is all the boxes are filled with Rolex SS Sport models....

You know what, it bothers me to see all this arguing and discontent, .. I am going to start selling them... I’ll sell them all at MSRP.... Maybe even a discount.