Will we get back to normal pricing?

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Can't wait for all the greys to be bagholding when the panic REALLY sets in

Its going to happen. If oil can get to -$30 a barrel like in recent past anything is possible.

[Solo118]

I for one do NOT look forward to prices going down to pre-pandemic level. If demand grinds to a halt, it could entail that we may have serious issues in the economy.

If prices lower by 15-20% and demand is steady, I think that is just a healthy "correction" which I am all for.

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by Solo118

it could entail that we may have serious issues in the economy.

We are way beyond serious issues.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by Solo118

I for one do NOT look forward to prices going down to pre-pandemic level. If demand grinds to a halt, it could entail that we may have serious issues in the economy.

If prices lower by 15-20% and demand is steady, I think that is just a healthy "correction" which I am all for.

Looming recession, threat of WW3, inflation fears, am i missing anything else?

[sathwik]

Huge shipping supply chain problems coming up. Ships and containers are stuck in china for a month now. Huge disruptions in many exports inevitable. Prices will go up again after some corrections

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

We are way beyond serious issues.

Not yet. And better hope we never get into the really heavy sh!t.

Meanwhile, I've posted this on another thread but it would also give some perspective and food for thought here:

Currently, in my part of the world,

Grey dealers have drastically limited the amount of watches for sale on their websites. Some literally overnight.

Hot models are now mostly listed without a price (call us for price)

Several hot models listed on the sites greyed out as sold (but no price displayed of course)

Grey offers for newish professional models are exactly at MSRP or 100-200 on top thereof

Grey offers for sought after newish (months old) DJs are 100-200 BELOW MSRP

Greys still offer for sale BNIB professional models on DAY'S notice, that is warranty card dated the day of purchase from said Grey (make what you will out of this one)

Greys offer hot professional models for sale at prices very close, perhaps 300-400 €£$ off the Chrono 24 ones.

These are just my observations and may or may not reflect the situation in other countries.

[Madison1]

Originally Posted by sathwik

Huge shipping supply chain problems coming up. Ships and containers are stuck in china for a month now. Huge disruptions in many exports inevitable. Prices will go up again after some corrections

Could happen. Perhaps volatility is the new normal. Such a weird time to track Rolex. You will have flippers and greys who were holding too much stock thinking I will sell next week as I may get more now saying I should sell this week or I may get less. Wonder if hindsight tells us Dec was the peak and Jan-March was a coordinated grey effort to pump and dump?

[bradurani]

Originally Posted by Solo118

I for one do NOT look forward to prices going down to pre-pandemic level. If demand grinds to a halt, it could entail that we may have serious issues in the economy.

If prices lower by 15-20% and demand is steady, I think that is just a healthy "correction" which I am all for.

I think the question is not whether falling Rolex prices are an economic indicator, but whether they're a leading or lagging indicator. Is this the result of inflation and a falling stock market or a portent of even more market trouble to come? The second case - Rolex prices as a leading indicator of even more trouble - is not as crazy as it sounds. Stock market drops are very much a function of sentiment, panic and the emotions of those invested (not just hard economic facts). If you're afraid, you'll probably delay that watch purchase first, then as your fears materialize, start to sell stock along with everyone else and trigger a market drop. Us watch geeks may know something financials types don't here

[sathwik]

Originally Posted by Madison1

Could happen. Perhaps volatility is the new normal. Such a weird time to track Rolex. You will have flippers and greys who were holding too much stock thinking I will sell next week as I may get more now saying I should sell this week or I may get less. Wonder if hindsight tells us Dec was the peak and Jan-March was a coordinated grey effort to pump and dump?

Prices peaked in feb. After that Russia got sanctioned and China, Hong Kong went into lockdown. Probably other countries have received more stock than usual and Grey market slowed down. Grey dealers are definitely not buying watches but they’re not selling their existing stock at big discounts either. Let’s wait and watch. I am personally of the opinion in 2-3 months prices will go up again, don’t know at what rate though. Finding watches you want at ADs is still going to be very very very hard for some long time.


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Solo118

I for one do NOT look forward to prices going down to pre-pandemic level. If demand grinds to a halt, it could entail that we may have serious issues in the economy.

If prices lower by 15-20% and demand is steady, I think that is just a healthy "correction" which I am all for.

We may have serious issues in the economy? Lol.


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[amh]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Looming recession, threat of WW3, inflation fears, am i missing anything else?

Recession & inflation are self-inflicted wounds due to boundless printing of money. Solution: Stop printing money

WW3 isn't going to happen. There are about 50 armed conflicts going at any given time - google it. No solution, it has always been thus.

I believe what we're seeing is a temporary respite. It will likely sink a little lower but I don't think we'll see prices like "the good old days" ever again. Fact is that Rolex MSRP is too low. They'll raise it over the next few years, IMO.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by amh

Recession & inflation are self-inflicted wounds due to boundless printing of money. Solution: Stop printing money

WW3 isn't going to happen. There are about 50 armed conflicts going at any given time - google it. No solution, it has always been thus.

I believe what we're seeing is a temporary respite. It will likely sink a little lower but I don't think we'll see prices like "the good old days" ever again. Fact is that Rolex MSRP is too low. They'll raise it over the next few years, IMO.

Money printing has currently stopped in the US. Hence interest rate increases across the yield curve. Money printing worked great for people with assets but once it overlapped with covid shortages it became unsustainable.

As it relates to Rolex, Datejust are not priced too low and it seems extremely unlikely any DJ will stay above retail since they barely are already (especially when considering sales tax). It’s just a question of which models now across the lines reach parity.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Money printing has currently stopped in the US. Hence interest rate increases across the yield curve. Money printing worked great for people with assets but once it overlapped with covid shortages it became unsustainable.

As it relates to Rolex, Datejust are not priced too low and it seems extremely unlikely any will stay above retail since they barely are already (especially when considering sales tax). It’s just a question of which models now across the lines reach parity.

What about DayDates? Or just PM in general? I don't expect much relief from SS Sports models, obviously

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

What about DayDates? Or just PM in general? I don't expect much relief from SS Sports models, obviously

DD40 big ticket item. I see it coming down.


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[NYG1121]

EWC, which is notoriously one of the higher asking prices on the market, is slashing prices faster than anyone else.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Looming recession, threat of WW3, inflation fears, am i missing anything else?

Sure — strong corporate profits, Europe working thru energy issue, excellent consumer sales, airplanes full, tour boat bookings and other travel demand excellent, stable oil prices, just a few.

[rolexpure]

I dont think its due to the economy. That is moving along fine.

Record low unemployment, planes are full, everyone is travelling again. The only real issue is inflation but it could all be transitory inflation due to supply chains. Businesses reporting record profits actually.

I think this is just that ppl money is now mostly into housing, travel and food. Everything is open so not everybody is bored and looking at Rolex. The demand has reduced immensely at gray prices. At MSRP demand will always be there because there is still profit to be made.

This to me just looks like a major correction in the market. Watches are nothing more than basically a toy or jewelry. Doesnt add much to your life and performs a basic function which any phone can perform at 1000x better accuracy.

This is just a market correction for a fully overinflated market bubble which was artificially created mostly by dealers in the first place.

[Fedpete]

https://theoandharris.com/rolex-prices-are-collapsing/


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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

We are way beyond serious issues.

[amh]

BNIB 2022 BLNR just posted in for sale section for $24k - hasn't fallen much, if at all. (And of course David has them much higher than that at 25-26k)

Not looking like a crash, more like a slight correction.

[lmcgbaj]

Originally Posted by amh

BNIB 2022 BLNR just posted in for sale section for $24k - hasn't fallen much, if at all. (And of course David has them much higher than that at 25-26k)

Not looking like a crash, more like a slight correction.

You don't know where to look. Prices are correcting and quite drastically. You have to keep in mind that inventory still needs to get sold.

[stewester]

Originally Posted by amh

BNIB 2022 BLNR just posted in for sale section for $24k - hasn't fallen much, if at all. (And of course David has them much higher than that at 25-26k)

Not looking like a crash, more like a slight correction.

25-26k is more like the market price for a BLRO currently. Things have dipped quite a bit. I do think prices will recover hard though, so if you want one get it now!

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by stewester

25-26k is more like the market price for a BLRO currently. Things have dipped quite a bit. I do think prices will recover hard though, so if you want one get it now!

I agree with this, it’s a buyers market now if you are sitting on the fence and a actual wearer of the watch.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by stewester

25-26k is more like the market price for a BLRO currently. Things have dipped quite a bit. I do think prices will recover hard though, so if you want one get it now!

I seen BLRO on Moda for 21k and 20k. Prices are falling sharply.

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I seen BLRO on Moda for 21k and 20k. Prices are falling sharply.

Agreed, market for a BLRO is nowhere close to $26k, more like $22k for BNIB

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by agsstructures

Agreed, market for a BLRO is nowhere close to $26k, more like $22k for BNIB

Lots of panda's are coming to market too. Every other post it seems now and prices are falling.

[Jojomojo]

Probably not on the SS super hot models.
But maybe close to it...

[RastabanStar]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

It has been slashed in half in the last five months. There’s a reason USD is the currency all other currencies are based off of.

Bitcoin is up 33% in the last 9 months. Its volatile if you haven't noticed, and the ride is far from over.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by amh

BNIB 2022 BLNR just posted in for sale section for $24k - hasn't fallen much, if at all. (And of course David has them much higher than that at 25-26k)

Not looking like a crash, more like a slight correction.

If you are a member in the various dealer groups, you’ll see the true price these things are going for now. The prices listed by DavidSW and the other trusted sellers on here are lagging and aren’t indicative of current market prices. Ask any of them if they want to buy your watch and you’ll quickly see.

There is a clear progression in downward prices just this week alone so far. For reference, there’s a brand new RG olive DD40 w/ full stickers and Dec 2021 being listed for $78k.

I own this piece and have no dog in the fight (purchased from AD), but you can’t deny how much inventory is coming to market right now. Lots of the sellers are using pushing and advertising “SALE SALE”, etc.

[Mattomatic]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Sure — strong corporate profits, Europe working thru energy issue, excellent consumer sales, airplanes full, tour boat bookings and other travel demand excellent, stable oil prices, just a few.

So true. The media will always try and play tricks on you.