Will we get back to normal pricing?

[shwingus]

Originally Posted by sechsgang

the amount of people who were into watches, are into them now, and they aren't just going away.

Im assuming you meant the people who weren't into watches are now?

If so, I disagree. Sure, during all of this current insanity some new enthusiasts were born but Id wager the overwhelming majority will no longer care or be in the market for hyped models once prices stabilize anywhere near MSRP.
It was never about the actual watches for the masses which has caused the current situation, it was about their perceived value and every shmuck trying to make a quick buck.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by shwingus

Im assuming you meant the people who weren't into watches are now?

If so, I disagree. Sure, during all of this current insanity some new enthusiasts were born but Id wager the overwhelming majority will no longer care or be in the market for hyped models once prices stabilize anywhere near MSRP.
It was never about the actual watches for the masses which has caused the current situation, it was about their perceived value and every shmuck trying to make a quick buck.

Makes me wonder how many enthusiasts have walked away during all this.

[shwingus]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Makes me wonder how many enthusiasts have walked away during all this.

Definitely me. My AD who I have extensive history with was starting to really annoy me so I decided to hit up the Omega boutique about a year ago to put my name down for a snoopy.
Complete 180 in terms of service, Rolex AD's have had it too good for too long and have forgotten about customer service. Im not expecting to just get handed hyped models in this market, but being treated like an actual customer would be a good start.
My Omega SA constantly keeps me in the loop as to my spot on the list and invites me to events without having purchased anything from him yet.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by shwingus

Definitely me. My AD who I have extensive history with was starting to really annoy me ....

...Rolex AD's have had it too good for too long and have forgotten about customer service. Im not expecting to just get handed hyped models in this market, but being treated like an actual customer would be a good start.

I feel the same way. It has gotten to the point with my SA that when I ask him for certain things he pretty openly says you have to buy much more jewelry for consideration. I'm ready for bag holders and AD's to start eating Sh*^.

[shwingus]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I feel the same way. It has gotten to the point with my SA that when I ask him for certain things he pretty openly says you have to buy much more jewelry for consideration. I'm ready for bag holders and AD's to start eating Sh*^.

Amen brother.

[Mystro]

I would be impressed if we just got back to last summer pricing. That was the time when most grey dealers had the new black Sub41 date for about $15k. That’s a very popular summer watch and a good indication a popular high volume professional model is really setting in a consistent price point. We are currently at that $15.9 range for a 124060 (no date) Sub.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by shwingus

Amen brother.

Not to mention, after you buy jewelry or other dumb sh*# and you finally get that piece you've been after... they tell you if you sell / trade / flip it you are black listed ! LMFAO. I waited all this time, spent all this extra money and paid MSRP now you threaten me ?

I seriously cannot wait to knuckle crack on my AD once the tables turn.

[Gimoozaabi]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

There is a difference between those 'old' greys and the 1000s that joined the market when it got crazy and simply pushed the prices up for each other to get rich.

I agree, a lot of newcomer greys were attracted when they realised that there are easy money to make. Just a few years ago the greys were selling me most of the Rolex sport models below MSRP. The most 5 digits were a real bargain. I bought my 14060m for 4.5k Euro in 2015 and 16570 for 3k in 2016. I don't think we will ever see these prices returning again.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Not to mention, after you buy jewelry or other dumb sh*# and you finally get that piece you've been after... they tell you if you sell / trade / flip it you are black listed ! LMFAO. I waited all this time, spent all this extra money and paid MSRP now you threaten me ?

I seriously cannot wait to knuckle crack on my AD once the tables turn.

Those days will never happen again. The AD’s have already established the new rules of the Rolex AD sales protocol. No way will they ever go back to not using a entry level ss Rolex as a carrot to sell their undesirable jewelry to new customers. Top models will only be offered to their mega spenders after they have been vetted. Same exact scenario was happening over at the Porsche world with top level 911. Base model 911’s now have a waiting list. No way a walk in gets any GT3 without long term buying/spending history and even then you are on a waiting list.

[temporarychicken]

Rolex dictionary:

Jewelry = Pay the grey price via huge mark-up on stuff you don't want.

Bundling = Buy your wife a Datejust she doesn't want

History = Buy something you don't want now in the hope you'll be allowed something nicer in the future

Waiting List = You're a nice guy so f@#& off gently.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Those days will never happen again. The AD’s have already established the new rules of the Rolex AD sales protocol. No way will they ever go back to not using a entry level ss Rolex as a carrot to sell their undesirable jewelry to new customers. Top models will only be offered to their mega spenders after they have been vetted. Same exact scenario was happening over at the Porsche world with top level 911. Base model 911’s now have a waiting list. No way a walk in gets any GT3 without long term buying/spending history and even then you are on a waiting list.

100% correct on all points

There is no way the Rolex (or luxury watch market) is getting in Docs DeLorean anytime soon (or ever) and winding back beyond where we are now. Like it or lump it.

[rolex16]

And yet, people get the call for SS models every day with little to no spend…

[krounchou]

Prices will most likely get softer, but I agree that I see no way back to 2016. Rolex and other luxury watch awareness is higher than ever and they will control production to keep sufficient pressure on the market.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by krounchou

control production to keep sufficient pressure on the market.

Control production?? They are building a new factory!! Rolex is a mass produced brand, it is not PP or AP and never will be!

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by RXB

Control production?? They are building a new factory!!

bag holders will bag hold.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by RXB

Control production?? They are building a new factory!! Rolex is a mass produced brand, it is not PP or AP and never will be!

Not correct. Rolex have 4 facilities in Geneva and for the last 2 years Tudor has been made in one of those. This year Tudor move into the new (smaller) factory as a stand alone facility with Rolex in the other, more established 4 sites.

You won’t see any meaningful uptick in production or supply and, in context, the c. 1m units a year is small beer relatively speaking for the worldwide market or vs. other brands.

Sorry.

[amh]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

Rolex dictionary:

Jewelry = Pay the grey price via huge mark-up on stuff you don't want.

Bundling = Buy your wife a Datejust she doesn't want

History = Buy something you don't want now in the hope you'll be allowed something nicer in the future

Waiting List = You're a nice guy so f@#& off gently.

Exactly that. It's pretty easy to make up the grey markup with the needless dealer spending.

Originally Posted by rolex16

And yet, people get the call for SS models every day with little to no spend…

Do they? I think those people just don't want to admit spending $30k on worthless diamond trinkets.

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by GW44

Not correct. Rolex have 4 facilities in Geneva and for the last 2 years Tudor has been made in one of those. This year Tudor move into the new (smaller) factory as a stand alone facility with Rolex in the other, more established 4 sites.

You won’t see any meaningful uptick in production or supply and, in context, the c. 1m units a year is small beer relatively speaking for the worldwide market or vs. other brands.

Sorry.

In terms of the (global) Swiss made watch market Rolex are just under 30% of it (according to Morgan Stanley) so it's not small beer at all.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2022/03/mor...port-2022.html

[JRell]

Originally Posted by amh

Exactly that. It's pretty easy to make up the grey markup with the needless dealer spending.



Do they? I think those people just don't want to admit spending $30k on worthless diamond trinkets.

I have literally spent maybe 3k over 3 years at my AD outside of Rolex. Mostly jewelry for my wife, mother, mother -in-law and niece. Would have bought them regardless and they never ask me to buy jewelry. I got 3 datejusts, 2 SS subs, 2 bluesy’s, 1 rootbeer and 1 blrn. Also got my friend a black sub date in 4 days. Sold all of them back to the AD except for the SS sub and blnr. Not a big spender, just a solid relationship. They also know I am not a flipper as example of selling them back the watches I bought from them, I am sure that helps.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by amh

Exactly that. It's pretty easy to make up the grey markup with the needless dealer spending.



Do they? I think those people just don't want to admit spending $30k on worthless diamond trinkets.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by PO 2500D

In terms of the (global) Swiss made watch market Rolex are just under 30% of it (according to Morgan Stanley) so it's not small beer at all.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2022/03/mor...port-2022.html

It is in terms of worldwide watch production, not just Swiss brands. If I recall correctly, Casio is at 10m units annually as an comparable number.

[rolexpure]

This drop is HEALTHY!!!! Get over it everyone I'm a watch enthusiast who cares what they are worth.

I'm happy if my RG DD40 went back to $25k USD and more than reduced by 60% from todays prices. Or of my SS BLRO became $15k USD. I'd love it.

It would mean all the speculators are going to get burnt and will all P|ss off. I already know several guys that never liked watches in the first place trying to offload right now.

They are getting low balled from every person and now their profit margins are reducing. The more this happens the better.

[NYG1121]

Cant wait to read these “that wont ever happen again threads”. Always amusing after the fact. In either direction because of the convinction!

[schwartz914]

Prices will never be close to retail. I'm sure they will go up again

[amh]

Originally Posted by JRell

I have literally spent maybe 3k over 3 years at my AD outside of Rolex. Mostly jewelry for my wife, mother, mother -in-law and niece. Would have bought them regardless and they never ask me to buy jewelry. I got 3 datejusts, 2 SS subs, 2 bluesy’s, 1 rootbeer and 1 blrn. Also got my friend a black sub date in 4 days. Sold all of them back to the AD except for the SS sub and blnr. Not a big spender, just a solid relationship. They also know I am not a flipper as example of selling them back the watches I bought from them, I am sure that helps.

Interesting 'relationship' indeed

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by amh

Exactly that. It's pretty easy to make up the grey markup with the needless dealer spending.



Do they? I think those people just don't want to admit spending $30k on worthless diamond trinkets.

Kind of like those that won’t admit grey/secondary market prices are dropping?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JRell]

Originally Posted by amh

Interesting 'relationship' indeed

What is that supposed to mean? You suggested you have to buy 30k of jewelry and that is not always true. Sorry don’t know what to tell you!

[Mystro]

There is no one way is best for everybody. I totally respect that these watches are ridiculously hard to get hold of and some ways to acquire them just works better for some than others. Everyone’s value system is different and how they look at it.

[amh]

Originally Posted by JRell

I have literally spent maybe 3k over 3 years at my AD outside of Rolex. Mostly jewelry for my wife, mother, mother -in-law and niece. Would have bought them regardless and they never ask me to buy jewelry. I got 3 datejusts, 2 SS subs, 2 bluesy’s, 1 rootbeer and 1 blrn. Also got my friend a black sub date in 4 days. Sold all of them back to the AD except for the SS sub and blnr. Not a big spender, just a solid relationship. They also know I am not a flipper as example of selling them back the watches I bought from them, I am sure that helps.

Originally Posted by amh

Interesting 'relationship' indeed

Originally Posted by JRell

What is that supposed to mean? You suggested you have to buy 30k of jewelry and that is not always true. Sorry don’t know what to tell you!

So you did pay extra for all that, in a roundabout way.

Assumptions: (change them if you wish)
- You pay MSRP + Tax 8% for all pieces
- You 'sell back' to AD at 50% of MSRP

You dealt:
- 3 TT Datejust 36 No Bling: 3 * 12000 * 1.08 = $38.8k
- 1 SS Sub Date: 10600 * 1.08 = $11.5k
- 2 Blue TT Sub: 2 * 14700 * 1.08 = $31.7k
- 1 GMT RB: 15250 * 1.08 = $16.5k
- TOTAL: $98.5k

Back from AD: $91k / 2 = $45.6k

So you spent about 45k in 'goodwill' money to gain special access at the AD.

Now understand that I don't care that you did - if I could I might as well. But you can't claim that you're not a big spender and you just casually wandered in and were offered SS pieces.

[JRell]

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