CONFIRMED news regarding the professional line

[Gaijin]

This thread is being viewed by more members than I’ve ever seen. I think a nerve has been touched.

[cuibono]

Originally Posted by 77T

Most ADs will be alright on fixed operating expenses as they carry other brands as well as high-end jewelry. Although the shift in product mix could pressure net margins.

However...
Your comment made me rethink something that didn’t dawn on me after leaving my Nearby AD yesterday. They, like many AD’s, also carry the Tudor lineup. As I was leaving after our convo on the Rolex production cutback, I passed a well-stocked set of Tudor cases.

Could this Rolex brand production cutback be beneficial to Tudor sales?

After all, Tudor models don’t overlap the Rolex brand’s non-Professional models.

Would HQ hatch such a terrible strategy to boost Tudor sales?

Thoughts???


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Yes. What I didn't mention in my initial post is that the same team really pushed Tudor on me in a variety of ways (which makes sense, they'd rather sell me something than nothing). They said that if they didn't have something in stock they could get it easily. The ads around time for that store seem to be Tudor focused as well.

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[subtona]

Thanks G

[Danny83]

Now everthing new coming is really gonna sell for over msrp.....

[Iflylo]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

This thread is being viewed by more members than I’ve ever seen. I think a nerve has been touched.

Well when it comes down to it we all probably have way more watches than we need. But it makes for interesting discussion on a discussion forum...

[16610v]

Need 1 year to produce a watch dosen't mean produce 1 million watch at the same time for each same stage. Maybe every stage can produce 10,000 watches, and i takes 3 days to conplete one stage.

But if rolex at the intial 3-6 months reduce the no of sports watches for the stages, they have no way to increase the final products now, at least need 6-12 months time more.

Originally Posted by tyler1980

that is so misleading as ive heard that claim before. If it does there is a lot of time spent sitting between steps in the manufacturing process.

If they produce 700k watches a year and it actually takes 1 year to make each they would need a minimum of 700k watchmakers as they would not have time for anything else. That would make the Rolex factory the largest city in Switzerland by some margin. Not to mention what the cost of the watch would be with that amount of time. 8K for a watch that took someone a year to make isnt plausible.

[Rolexsd4000]

Originally Posted by yhzdude

yes they are trying to sell the old stock...scare tactic. So they can start fresh..after Basel.

Now that I can believe.......it’s a Marketing ploy


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[JParm]

The funniest thing to me is hearing people talk about being driven away from the brand or not wanting to purchase a certain model anymore due to whatever Rolex is doing at the moment.

Personally, If I truly loved a certain watch or product and had to have it, there wouldn't be any actions from the brand that would stop me from acquiring that piece (at MSRP or lower!), outside of the company doing anything illegal like operating sweatshops, taking shortcuts, etc.

I do say at MSRP or lower because while I would love to have a ceramic Daytona, I would never purchase one above MSRP knowing that I could get one from an AD...with endless amounts of patience, of course.

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by Rolexsd4000

Now that I can believe.......it’s a Marketing ploy

Its an interesting one, given the amount of advertising they have been doing over the past few years, especially in Formula One (and that's not bargain basement advertising costs!) to gain a record sales volume, just to decrease production....

Perplexing to say the least, so, I'm going for the new movement theory across the Sports range as the reason.

Not that I'm in the market any longer for a new Rolex, so, now just an interested viewer from the sidelines.

[kilyung]

Originally Posted by Rolexsd4000

Now that I can believe.......it’s a Marketing ploy

Doubt it. Scarcity of product is hardly efficient when considering marketing spend. Spending that much on marketing and not being able to recoup the cost doesn’t make sense.

[DoctorA]

Originally Posted by yhzdude

yes they are trying to sell the old stock...scare tactic. So they can start fresh..after Basel.

Highly doubt it! Never been Rolex strategy to “trick” it’s customerrs so they get scared of buying new models in the future!

But if that’s the case I will take all the Pepsi and Coke watches Rolex “tricked” us with

[dodober]

I talked to my AD recently and he told me there was a shortage in sport models, but he didnt say anything clearly.
What I really think, it's that prices are going up after Basel. After that, more suply to all ADs.

[Watch This]

If this "confirmation" had been made by a rookie member of this forum this thread would not be 402 posts in length because the old guard here (and others) would have absolutely skewered the OP.

The fact is this is all speculation as those in the upper ranks of Rolex aren't talking, just as it has always been historically. I can think of a half dozen examples of Basel surprises that no one saw coming and a half dozen more that were 100% wrong.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

I’d have to question those ratios (10-1), especially over the last few years... Maybe it’s different elsewhere, but where I live, I can basically throw something out my window and hit someone wearing a Sub.

Yes Social Media has changed the game and now most people, esp under 40, do not just walk into an AD and buy what they see, ie from rows of DJs, no they look online and see the sports models are glorified and most coveted, and these are the ones they want and so perpetuate even higher demand.

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by emkwan

I’d disagree... I review tech and watches on YouTube and social media like Instagram. I’m genuinely shocked at how many millennials are buying automatic watches including Rolex vintage and sports models. I’m regaulalry contacted by young people asking specific questions related to watches including Rolex models.

I have to politely disagree with your comment.

I have watched your videos, and they are very (very) good. However, they cater to a certain sub-section, which means they risk being a closed loop in terms of the feedback/information they provide.

What do I mean?

The people who watch your videos can be primarily categorized into two groups - those who like tech, and those who like nice watches.

Looking at those who like watches - you will have many views from such people, as including many young people. However, and this is key, it is still a closed loop. You are getting highly filtered views from a specifically interested audience, and that means that the numbers are highly skewed.

An example:
- Rolex sells about a million watches a year;
- Let’s imagine you got 100 inquiries from young people ...while nice, that’s not even a drop in the ocean. Hardly even vapor.
- It is also not statistically significant considering they are coming from a highly focused group to begin with (its like doing a survey on TRF ...any results would be skewed considering we are a highly concentrated audience of watch lovers, and thus there is no randomness).
- Now, let’s even increase the inquiries from 100 to 1,000. Same thing ...absolutely no indication of declining interest, or lack of, among the youth.
- a better sample set would be to go to any large college and ask the students there how interested they are in watches.

With that said, I think there will always be a place for good mechanical watches. Always.

But it will be at a lower demand point than currently seen.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Watch This

If this "confirmation" had been made by a rookie member of this forum this thread would not be 402 posts in length because the old guard here (and others) would have absolutely skewered the OP.

The fact is this is all speculation as those in the upper ranks of Rolex aren't talking, just as it has always been historically. I can think of a half dozen examples of Basel surprises that no one saw coming and a half dozen more that were 100% wrong.

We've been wondering why Rolex did not replenish UK stocks after Brexit and after over a year and even a price increase there was still no change. I suspected either a terrorist had blown up their factories or they were having a change of global policy, and that has now been confirmed.

The question of cutting back supply, not just keeping it steady like before, means that either they are redesigning new models which is taking up production capacity, or they are going for more exclusivity, higher price points and moving up the horological ladder.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by oligeo

Well,
Maybe a bit "OT" but I think you mixes "lead-time" and "manufacturing time". Depending the production process, you can have a lead-time of one year for a good that only requires "a couple of hundred hours" of manufacturing time.

I work in aircraft engine industry and it was quite common to have a lead-time of let say 100 days while you only need 100 hours of "added value" work hours on an item.

Now, L/T tends to decrease thanks to "Lean Mfg" where you want to reduced inventories and so.....

My 2 cents

Oli

I don't fully understand what he's trying to say but i'm fairly confident his comment stems from a lack of personal experience in manufacturing or the fundamentals around economies of scale.

[Flyinghunter]

New to Rolex and new to the TRForum question...If they change the movements to the new 3XXX, does the buying public really consider that a significant change to warrant dismissing the older models? A stampede ensues? I would think new watch designs would be a much bigger incentive. So my current SubC has a 31XX movement, has a solid history, and has a 48hr reserve. Perhaps, I don't know what I don't know but a new movement would inspire me about zilch. A new model, say a new GMT Coke ceramic...now thats interesting.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by Flyinghunter

New to Rolex and new to the TRForum question...If they change the movements to the new 3XXX, does the buying public really consider that a significant change to warrant dismissing the older models? A stampede ensues? I would think new watch designs would be a much bigger incentive. So my current SubC has a 31XX movement, has a solid history, and has a 48hr reserve. Perhaps, I don't know what I don't know but a new movement would inspire me about zilch. A new model, say a new GMT Coke ceramic...now thats interesting.

Agreed.
People here are forgeting that Rolex implements changes on a progressive basis.
To that, i will expect a slow change over spanning years to new movements across different models.
It actually won't be like flicking a switch as that would be much too problematic on all levels.

[Mystro]

The funny little fact about Rolex as a trust and the way they do business.... Any time Rolex employs a “marketing tactic”, it becomes a reality. Rolex is a master at what they do and why they are where they are in the world as a brand. We are waisting are time trying to figure it out now.

[fishingbear]

If true, I bet it is temporary.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by GB-man

This thread is hilarious

And getting funnier by the minute!

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The funny little fact about Rolex as a trust and the way they do business.... Any time Rolex employs a “marketing tactic”, it becomes a reality. Rolex is a master at what they do and why they are where they are in the world as a brand. We are waisting are time trying to figure it out now.

[omx5o]

I think this whole shortage thing is just one big self-fulfilling prophecy.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Flyinghunter

New to Rolex and new to the TRForum question...If they change the movements to the new 3XXX, does the buying public really consider that a significant change to warrant dismissing the older models? A stampede ensues? I would think new watch designs would be a much bigger incentive. So my current SubC has a 31XX movement, has a solid history, and has a 48hr reserve. Perhaps, I don't know what I don't know but a new movement would inspire me about zilch. A new model, say a new GMT Coke ceramic...now thats interesting.

Valid points.

A good example from the smartphone industry - who knows what model Qualcomm chipset is in their smartphone or Nvidia chipset in their laptop.

But everyone knows that the iPhone & MacBook are overpriced


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[rexG]

Rolex is going out of business........

[Rashid.bk]

Well it's good to like a model that's not so popular. The Deepsea is cool after all as it seems easier to find at ADs then say a Hulk or BLNR and much more available in the secondary market.
All this is doing is giving a bad feeling about Rolex. It just does not make sense in the making money scheme of things. If this is true, then it can only logically mean that a price increase is coming to make up for the lack of product being sold in addition that there may be upgrades in store.

[RossHetherington]

I think it is a ruse to establish the Tudor brand as a mainstream option.

[TheVTCGuy]

I don't know the answer and have already posted my opinion, I just wish I could start a thread that earned 417 (418) posts.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I don't know the answer and have already posted my opinion, I just wish I could start a thread that earned 417 (418) posts.

Ok, make that 419, you guys are quick!