Prices not dropping?

[lear60man]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Ignore auction results and C24 prices they’re like saying the average price for lunch is $175 because that’s how much it costs Kanye to have his assistant bring him an organic salad from his home chef in the main house.

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

So if you see a Panda at $50k on DSW or C24 it’s probably available to purchase for about $35k. If you see a watch auction for $100k, it’s probably available to purchase for around $50k.

No skin in the game just truth. Won’t be buying or selling myself but there’s definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.

There will always people clutching their collectibles and never drop prices. In the car world we call those people the ,”I know what I have” crowd. And they will never accept reality. For them it’s a belief system and not worth arguing.

Just skip over the believers and go with the flow.

Just for giggles I checked MODA and you are spot on with your example. 2 Pandas for $35,000.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Ignore auction results and C24 prices they’re like saying the average price for lunch is $175 because that’s how much it costs Kanye to have his assistant bring him an organic salad from his home chef in the main house.

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

So if you see a Panda at $50k on DSW or C24 it’s probably available to purchase for about $35k. If you see a watch auction for $100k, it’s probably available to purchase for around $50k.

No skin in the game just truth. Won’t be buying or selling myself but there’s definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.

There will always people clutching their collectibles and never drop prices. In the car world we call those people the ,”I know what I have” crowd. And they will never accept reality. For them it’s a belief system and not worth arguing.

Just skip over the believers and go with the flow.

Spot on, close the thread. I’m outta here.

Start arguing with fools eventually it’s hard to tell the difference.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

One of the only question that matters: what will Chinese from mainland and HK do when covid restrictions cool down? I suspect that greys are betting on these buyers re-entering the market massively.

Someone living there who can provide us info on that?

They'd be betting wrong. Economic slowdown in China was already happening before the lockdowns and Watchbox even said they saw the tide turning in their HK office in Feb. Unlike the first lockdowns, this time China went into covid restrictions with a slowing economy, real estate crises, and they locked down the richest cities. With an unemployment crises now from the lockdowns and the housing crises still in the background, I wouldn't expect people to be lining up at Louis Vuitton this time.

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by Miker86

There are absolutely pandas below $50k. Chronext prices are a joke, even worse than Watchfinder.

Link?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by Miker86

Bit perverse to be celebrating a recession so you can potentially buy more Rolex watches. A lot of people will suffer who haven’t sunk their money into watches, NFTs, crypto etc

if you feel bad for anyone who put money into NFTs you're whack. Don't @ me

[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

Link?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

i just saw 2 auctions end on a group in the past couple days at ~$35k.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

One of the only question that matters: what will Chinese from mainland and HK do when covid restrictions cool down? I suspect that greys are betting on these buyers re-entering the market massively.

Someone living there who can provide us info on that?

I don’t live there but I know the Chinese quite well. Most Chinese people do not and will not buy into a falling asset/item as an investment. They tend to try to time the market. So when Chinese start buying, they are usually mid way through a rising market.

[Son Goku]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Ignore auction results and C24 prices they’re like saying the average price for lunch is $175 because that’s how much it costs Kanye to have his assistant bring him an organic salad from his home chef in the main house.

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

So if you see a Panda at $50k on DSW or C24 it’s probably available to purchase for about $35k. If you see a watch auction for $100k, it’s probably available to purchase for around $50k.

No skin in the game just truth. Won’t be buying or selling myself but there’s definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.

There will always people clutching their collectibles and never drop prices. In the car world we call those people the ,”I know what I have” crowd. And they will never accept reality. For them it’s a belief system and not worth arguing.

Just skip over the believers and go with the flow.

Best post I’ve read in a while on here.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Solo118

I am in NYC, if anybody wants to buy from this dealer and he allows an in person inspection before payment I would be glad to do so then drop it in fedex/ups for you after payment is made.

I can bet the watch won’t be as described, if even available

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I don’t live there but I know the Chinese quite well. Most Chinese people do not and will not buy into a falling asset/item as an investment. They tend to try to time the market. So when Chinese start buying, they are usually mid way through a rising market.

What?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[28mm]

Prices are obviously a function of demand. As such prices are down a bit as demand is also down.

I just about never sell a watch but curious how much demand is down. Not really as much from AD's as from greys. I wonder how much less business they are doing.

[bradurani]

Originally Posted by 28mm

Prices are obviously a function of demand. As such prices are down a bit as demand is also down.

I just about never sell a watch but curious how much demand is down. Not really as much from AD's as from greys. I wonder how much less business they are doing.

No, they're a function of demand AND supply. If either changes, the price changes. Demand can stay exactly the same, but if supply increases, prices drop. I think we're probably seeing both an increase in supply (hoarded stock being dumped by resellers) AND a drop in demand (buyers waiting due to economic uncertainty). A double whammy.

[28mm]

Originally Posted by bradurani

No, they're a function of demand AND supply. If either changes, the price changes. Demand can stay exactly the same, but if supply increases, prices drop. I think we're probably seeing both an increase in supply (hoarded stock being dumped by resellers) AND a drop in demand (buyers waiting due to economic uncertainty). A double whammy.

Sure but there are times demand simply slows to a crawl regardless of supply. Just wondering how much demand has dropped and to an extent it can be regardless of supply.. This isn't gas.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I disagree here. These people are trying to prop up a falling market with false narratives for their own benefit, to the detriment of others (naive buyers). That is not OK, and someone needs to call out the BS.

Wow, that's really quite an insulting accusation! I don't appreciate being referred to as a knucklehead, either. I thought manners were important on this forum.

All I am doing is pointing out anomalies. You are 100% correct in some respects - prices are falling, but only on those references which skyrocketed in the last 6 months. C24 trends confirm these price drops for Pandas, GMTs etc. So, presumably, you'll agree that C24 trends are correct in showing a drop?

What C24 isn't showing is drops right across the board, and some of the arguably less desirable steel watches (OPs, vintage & neo-vintage sports, and also plain vanilla Ceramic Subs) are not dropping.

I think that's interesting. How do C24 get the trend right with the falling references, but not (according to you) with the ones which aren't falling?

[1665fan]

Hard to find a good deal on a 116520 also, I’m on the hunt by they are not dropping…. I assume because they are discontinued

[teck21]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Wow, that's really quite an insulting accusation! I don't appreciate being referred to as a knucklehead, either. I thought manners were important on this forum.

All I am doing is pointing out anomalies. You are 100% correct in some respects - prices are falling, but only on those references which skyrocketed in the last 6 months. C24 trends confirm these price drops for Pandas, GMTs etc. So, presumably, you'll agree that C24 trends are correct in showing a drop?

What C24 isn't showing is drops right across the board, and some of the arguably less desirable steel watches (OPs, vintage & neo-vintage sports, and also plain vanilla Ceramic Subs) are not dropping.

I think that's interesting. How do C24 get the trend right with the falling references, but not (according to you) with the ones which aren't falling?

Learn to disengage.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Hard to find a good deal on a 116520 also, I’m on the hunt by they are not dropping…. I assume because they are discontinued

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Ignore auction results and C24 prices they’re like saying the average price for lunch is $175 because that’s how much it costs Kanye to have his assistant bring him an organic salad from his home chef in the main house.

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

So if you see a Panda at $50k on DSW or C24 it’s probably available to purchase for about $35k. If you see a watch auction for $100k, it’s probably available to purchase for around $50k.

No skin in the game just truth. Won’t be buying or selling myself but there’s definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.

There will always people clutching their collectibles and never drop prices. In the car world we call those people the ,”I know what I have” crowd. And they will never accept reality. For them it’s a belief system and not worth arguing.

Just skip over the believers and go with the flow.

Thats actually really fascinating if true. so its about 30% wiggle room?

Is that the same across the board? so for instance if i see an explorer listed for £8500, then the 'real' price is 30% less so around £6000? if thats the case then flippers or sellers arent really making anything over MSRP...

[JRell]

Inflation is at its peak, as it declines so will the Rolex prices.

[David001]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

What C24 isn't showing is drops right across the board, and some of the arguably less desirable steel watches (OPs, vintage & neo-vintage sports, and also plain vanilla Ceramic Subs) are not dropping.

I think that's interesting. How do C24 get the trend right with the falling references, but not (according to you) with the ones which aren't falling?

Ceramic Subs are dropping hugely.

The C24 graph shows they're down at $19k, but there are currently 250+ advertised at less than $19k and they're not selling, even ones advertised at $15k are not selling, the real sale price is about MRRP.

The C24 graph isn't even close on the curve, the trend or the figures.

All watch prices are falling, some slower than others but they're all falling and this is only the beginning, a couple of months ago a few of us noticed it, now most of you are noticing it and by the end of summer when everyone else catches on to it then it will be a bloodbath.

[amh]

Originally Posted by David001

Ceramic Subs are dropping hugely.

The C24 graph shows they're down at $19k, but there are currently 250+ advertised at less than $19k and they're not selling, even ones advertised at $15k are not selling, the real sale price is about MRRP.

The C24 graph isn't even close on the curve, the trend or the figures.

All watch prices are falling, some slower than others but they're all falling and this is only the beginning, a couple of months ago a few of us noticed it, now most of you are noticing it and by the end of summer when everyone else catches on to it then it will be a bloodbath.

I sure hope so! I'm looking forward to the "good old days" returning at the AD.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JRell

Inflation is at its peak, as it declines so will the Rolex prices.

That right there my friend is the absolute truth around all of this. You nailed it. It really is that simple.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I don’t live there but I know the Chinese quite well. Most Chinese people do not and will not buy into a falling asset/item as an investment. They tend to try to time the market. So when Chinese start buying, they are usually mid way through a rising market.

Interesting. Thanks.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

Ceramic Subs are dropping hugely.

The C24 graph shows they're down at $19k, but there are currently 250+ advertised at less than $19k and they're not selling, even ones advertised at $15k are not selling, the real sale price is about MRRP.

The C24 graph isn't even close on the curve, the trend or the figures.

All watch prices are falling, some slower than others but they're all falling and this is only the beginning, a couple of months ago a few of us noticed it, now most of you are noticing it and by the end of summer when everyone else catches on to it then it will be a bloodbath.

I don't know what model you are talking about at $19k. I'm talking about the 116610 LN. C24 have the average price of this watch at just over USD $15k, and this figure is the top of their curve at the moment, i.e. it hasn't dropped at all, and is actually still going up albeit slowly.

Your last paragraph is conjecture.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Hard to find a good deal on a 116520 also, I’m on the hunt by they are not dropping…. I assume because they are discontinued

Yes, not going down but at the same time they were not hyped up like the ceramics were. Great time to buy a 116520 imho.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Yes, not going down but at the same time they were not hyped up like the ceramics were. Great time to buy a 116520 imho.

I seen naked for like 25 unsold recently. That sounded cheap to me. Fat chance 116520s hold up people don’t even appreciate the 16520 the way they should in my mind.

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by Slambonie

i just saw 2 auctions end on a group in the past couple days at ~$35k.

You didn’t see the the post i replied to. We were talking about the UK


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I seen naked for like 25 unsold recently. That sounded cheap to me. Fat chance 116520s hold up people don’t even appreciate the 16520 the way they should in my mind.

I agree in the short term. I see a lot of them out there and they don’t seem to move. Maybe as they become more vintage, that will change, but no time soon.

[AmirudinAbduk]

Uk seemed to be less affected. Don’t see much price differences.

[GB-man]

Could be because the pound is down as well. Same price is still a lower price internationally speaking in GBP. But the UK does always seem to March to its own drum with watch prices even before all this.