Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[GB-man]

When you are just a guy who has owned a half dozen or APs over the last decade (not all at once) and are left sorting through the secondary market for an acquisition its exciting to see prices fall back in line with what you're accustomed to (retail).

Sort of like members at the country club socializing with the staff I realize lol

Re: IG I realized last year that private account is the best move. I don't want to get knocked over the head because I am the wanker flaunting jewelry online everyday. Trade off isn't there.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by conkers

I think it is an interesting thread but I also take the point that is a shame it is a little less about the watches than about the trajectory of values. Simplistically if you love a watch at 80 and it goes to 60 then you are happy and save some money. If however you then say hmm well it might go to 50 then you will always be second guessing yourself and it becomes a monetary decision rather than a collecting decision. Everyone sits at a different point on this scale (“investing” vs collecting) so it’s impossible to generalise what is the correct strategy as it will entirely depend on the individual.

Absolutely on point Roger.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by GW44

Absolutely on point Roger.

I do feel that the interest in values is also driven by the fact that these watches are really expensive while my family and I are not wanting for anything because I buy a 20-60k watch it’s certainly a lot of money in the circles I run a around and I feel that’s why people have a strong interest in value development. I wish I could just buy a 5970 in every metal (like someone here) and don’t worry about it but unfortunately it’s not the reality for most people.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by dauster

I do feel that the interest in values is also driven by the fact that these watches are really expensive while my family and I are not wanting for anything because I buy a 20-60k watch it’s certainly a lot of money in the circles I run a around and I feel that’s why people have a strong interest in value development. I wish I could just buy a 5970 in every metal (like someone here) and don’t worry about it but unfortunately it’s not the reality for most people.


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One needs to be either 1. the top .01% or 2. reckless with money to simply say 'I don't care if I pay MSRP at $50k or inflated grey of $100k for what is a modern day wrist trinket, just buy what you like!'.

This is what I cited earlier, is that there's a huge difference between wanting prices to be at MSRP and tracking their values trending back downwards to this price point (as we're doing in this thread) as opposed to having this conversation 6 years ago with a tone of 'where can I get better than 20% discount on a Royal Oak?'. The latter is obviously a bit obnoxious. What we're doing here is completely separate than any 'investment', 'discount', or 'I only care about the value' threads. It's not a matter of affording it, it's a premise of not paying over retail due to this absurd scenario created by flippers/greys.

How some guys can't differentiate that is completely beyond me.

[dlmypr]

I think it is "all of above" situation. I try to sell my AP, thought would work on me but it is quite large for my wrist. Dealers (if they do offer anything) offer 20-40% below the retail price. One definite thing is AP is not doing well, second and most impactful issue is the cashflow of the dealers. I think they focus on steel watches as the investment (risk) is low and they can sell it easier.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by dmash

One needs to be either 1. the top .01% or 2. reckless with money to simply say 'I don't care if I pay MSRP at $50k or inflated grey of $100k for what is a modern day wrist trinket, just buy what you like!'.

This is what I cited earlier, is that there's a huge difference between wanting prices to be at MSRP and tracking their values trending back downwards to this price point (as we're doing in this thread) as opposed to having this conversation 6 years ago with a tone of 'where can I get better than 20% discount on a Royal Oak?'. The latter is obviously a bit obnoxious. What we're doing here is completely separate than any 'investment', 'discount', or 'I only care about the value' threads. It's not a matter of affording it, it's a premise of not paying over retail due to this absurd scenario created by flippers/greys.

How some guys can't differentiate that is completely beyond me.

very well said could not agree more

[youthagainsttt]

This is almost the situation all those years (7-8) ago when I got my 1st AP at the boutique, a blue 15400 as my 1st purchase and at a discount too. No one believes me, perhaps won’t quite get to that stage in the future but coming more towards attainability for other RO

[Vince_76]

My buddy just got a 15510 as his first AP. He visited the boutique a month ago, and only once. Granted, he has a nice collection, is super charming, etc. it’s definitely getting easier.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

My buddy just got a 15510 as his first AP. He visited the boutique a month ago, and only once. Granted, he has a nice collection, is super charming, etc. it’s definitely getting easier.

interesting and a good sign. is he in the US and can you mention in what state he lives?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by aa909

interesting and a good sign. is he in the US and can you mention in what state he lives?

Yes, California

[gregouille]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

My buddy just got a 15510 as his first AP. He visited the boutique a month ago, and only once. Granted, he has a nice collection, is super charming, etc. it’s definitely getting easier.

Good for him! May I ask which dial color?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by gregouille

Good for him! May I ask which dial color?

Black

[*M5]

Has anybody else noticed the HUGE price increases of the AP 15450sr on the secondary market?

I was looking at some in the 30s earlier this year, seems like they got bumped to 50K.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by *M5

Has anybody else noticed the HUGE price increases of the AP 15450sr on the secondary market?

I was looking at some in the 30s earlier this year, seems like they got bumped to 50K.

No. They have continued to fall. Anywhere from high 20s to low 30s now, and a majority of those haven’t sold. There’s one sitting with box and papers (short 3 links) for $28k.

No one is buying a 15450 at 50k… just because a grey/guy on Chrono asks doesn’t mean they’re even in the ballpark.

[*M5]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

No. They have continued to fall. Anywhere from high 20s to low 30s now, and a majority of those haven’t sold. There’s one sitting with box and papers (short 3 links) for $28k.

No one is buying a 15450 at 50k… just because a grey/guy on Chrono asks doesn’t mean they’re even in the ballpark.

Well on Chrono there is one at $35,500 and the next 8 ranging from $43,000 to $51,000 😮

Rest are at price request so probably they're not even in hand.

I'm not debating the market cause I'm not qualified to do so but as a buyer looking for this particular watch, this is what I see.

[*M5]

https://www.thewatchbox.com/shop/4660023.html?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_ campaign={M6%20-%20PMax%20-%20ACQ%20-%20Audemars%20Piguet%20-%20tROAS%20-%20US}&utm_content={AdGroupName}&utm_term=&gclid=C jwKCAjwzNOaBhAcEiwAD7Tb6Mx7ofgKoCg5S-F_udh3B6CEx4bLUEpzzw7tJF-H_e_CXC1mvzJBQhoCc6gQAvD_BwE


https://www.diamondsourcenyc.com/pro...r-oo-1256sr-01


https://www.jaztime.com/audemars-pig...tainless-steel

https://www.bigwatchbuyers.com/produ...wo-tone-watch/


https://luxurywatchesusa.com/product...wo-tone-watch/

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by *M5

Well on Chrono there is one at $35,500 and the next 8 ranging from $43,000 to $51,000 ��

Rest are at price request so probably they're not even in hand.

I'm not debating the market cause I'm not qualified to do so but as a buyer looking for this particular watch, this is what I see.

Appreciate it. And it’s refreshing to hear you say that you want to learn about the market, you may be wrong, etc… too many people don’t put their pride to the side on an Internet forum.

Regarding what you said and the links you posted: Chrono24 and grey sites are not a good barometer for market price. Why, you might ask? Simply put - the market price is the equilibrium of what a buyer offers and what a seller is willing to pay. The pieces on chrono and for greys rarely transact. They’re fishing for a fool with the prices they set.

Instead, you need to look at 2 data points for market price: grey dealer chats/groups, and what a grey is willing to pay for a piece. Regarding the former (which includes MODA), you’ll see pieces trading at a significant discount to Chrono24 and what greys are asking. Moreover, there are ACTUAL trades, it’s a more liquid market, etc. Regarding the latter point (what a grey offers), you’ll once again see a huge discount between what they are offering and what they are asking. In reality, greys have a 10-20% margin on pieces they buy (hence it’s importance in determining market price). They also won’t buy many “hot” pieces anymore (or at/below MSRP) given that they can’t move them as easily.

In public equities, real estate, watches, and any other market - it takes two (buyer and seller) to make a market. Just because you see crazy prices out there does not mean that there have been transactions at that price.

EDIT: noticed that you mentioned the two tone 15450. The prices I quoted were for SS. However, the same principles apply (e.g., Chrono24 and grey prices inflated).

[*M5]

I appreciate the explanation and the kind words. Can't help but wonder though, they can't all be fishing for that one guy or gal willing to drop a lot of money over msrp. I mean aren't these people in the business of selling things? Are they just willingly holding on to stock? Seems like poor market practice

[dmash]

Originally Posted by *M5

I appreciate the explanation and the kind words. Can't help but wonder though, they can't all be fishing for that one guy or gal willing to drop a lot of money over msrp. I mean aren't these people in the business of selling things? Are they just willingly holding on to stock? Seems like poor market practice

Those greys you quoted (and many others) have been holding stock (at least on AP) for over 6 months. It's absolutely bonkers and many of us are seriously questioning how much longer they can truly hold on.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by *M5

I appreciate the explanation and the kind words. Can't help but wonder though, they can't all be fishing for that one guy or gal willing to drop a lot of money over msrp. I mean aren't these people in the business of selling things? Are they just willingly holding on to stock? Seems like poor market practice

You’d be surprised. They aren’t moving much product right now (a lot of stock just sitting, others are pulled offline and reposted). They are trying to buoy the market as long as possible IMO.

There’s a reason why the items in the classifieds are bumped so much with no takers.

Originally Posted by dmash

Those greys you quoted (and many others) have been holding stock (at least on AP) for over 6 months. It's absolutely bonkers and many of us are seriously questioning how much longer they can truly hold on.

This. Pieces are moving slower than molasses, if at all.

[youthagainsttt]

Took another walk round the greys yesterday

Saw a 2010 Aquanaut for the same price as a RG rootbeer! I do wonder about some of these grey dealers in Hong Kong, there are some holding ridiculous amounts of stock. The 1 that I bought my OF Daytona from, they don’t hold that much stock but specialise in mainly high end and don’t have any steel Rollies for eg. Then another grey which is located in Landmark, central HK - surely the most expensive rent any grey dealer is paying, they too only have high end. Just hope these guys can survive this period

[conkers]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

Took another walk round the greys yesterday

Saw a 2010 Aquanaut for the same price as a RG rootbeer! I do wonder about some of these grey dealers in Hong Kong, there are some holding ridiculous amounts of stock. The 1 that I bought my OF Daytona from, they don’t hold that much stock but specialise in mainly high end and don’t have any steel Rollies for eg. Then another grey which is located in Landmark, central HK - surely the most expensive rent any grey dealer is paying, they too only have high end. Just hope these guys can survive this period

For those doing consignment only business they are somewhat more insulated (assuming of course they can cover their standing costs). For the rest, potentially very ugly!

[youthagainsttt]

Originally Posted by conkers

For those doing consignment only business they are somewhat more insulated (assuming of course they can cover their standing costs). For the rest, potentially very ugly!

Yeah, very true. In Hong Kong as well there’s 1 shop, I believe it has been featured somewhere before - it is the most incredible grey dealer you’ve ever seen, the stock they have is ridiculous. You’re talking about perhaps 100+ Richard Milles, thousands of Rollies, hundreds of APs. It’s almost like a museum for modern watches. The service is not good but it’s a great place for spending 15-20 minutes just looking at the watches in their windows

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

There’s a reason why the items in the classifieds are bumped so much with no takers.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

[thekman]

Originally Posted by 911AP

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

Market is not 99k. Have seen several for high 70s to low 80s. Even European watch company who are on the higher side was selling in the range.

[thekman]

Originally Posted by 911AP

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

Also I believe this seller ended up "buying" his own watch and even made a NWA post.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by thekman

Also I believe this seller ended up "buying" his own watch and even made a NWA post.

Can you find the post? I'm sure it didn't sell for 99k. The lowest ones I saw were like 79k. Those ones were really old 2013 model years.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by 911AP

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

Lol even watchbox has one listed for $79k that has been sitting....

[Bpan]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Can you find the post? I'm sure it didn't sell for 99k. The lowest ones I saw were like 79k. Those ones were really old 2013 model years.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12406601

I wonder if there is a conflict of interest when you "sell" a customer's consignment piece to yourself

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by 911AP

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

not trying to claim anything buddy. My watch has been sitting in chrono for months. That’s a fact. And I’ve literally got zero interest to lie about it.


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