116500LN Daytona resale prices dropping

[Mr Cosmograph]

Brilliant post

[Spartacus]

How do you distinguish list price vs. prices paid ?

[etp]

@Spartacus, I don't. No way to know difference unfortunately (unless resellers will tell me).

[1William]

Nice analysis of available data. I would speculate that the average sell price on these hot watches is 2-5% below list price. I believe that we will see the new Daytona-C at close to retail by the end of 2017. Most buyers who would pay over msrp will have done so and AD's will have satisfied most serious buyers on the list. I also think that the DSSD-Blue and the BLNR are in a bubble now for price and availability. If the DSSD-Blue is not discontinued at Basel 17, I would think we will see a correction on the price. If they introduce a SS Red and Black GMT, similar to the BLNR, I believe the BLNR price will correct to a similar difference that we see in the Hulk and the Black dial Submariner Date. All my thought from watching the watches and prices on TRF and other outlets.

[Oliver37]

This is great data! Do you have anything on 116334 (index dial) and 116400gv (black)? This may or may not describe a trade I'm considering

[etp]

Yep!

116334 - $6500
116400gv - $5950 for black dial (less than blue)

[Timesurfer]

Now this Is a cool post! thanks for taking the trouble, so if we wanted to see the real purchase price we should eschew the line say... $500US down or so for the daytona-C since there is no real way to know that info?

Really curious to see the evolution of the BLNR and source for the data... even more interesting would be to juxtapose that one with the LN to see if we wan reliably predict the behavior of the BLNR.

[gates]

Great charts - many things that are hard if not impossible to account for besides actual selling price - I.E. age and condition of the piece but excellent baseline data that you can start from, then you can adjust value based on the specific watch under consideration - well done!

[BNA/LION]

Interesting stats/data. 👍

[ScottJ]

Thanks! So interesting! Any data on the new WG Daytona blue dial?

[rod727]

Throw a trend line in your chart

[etp]

@Rod its the Purple line. The others are different trend lines

[etp]

@Scott ~$20k. Not enough data unfortunately to split out the blue dial

[JP Chestnut]

Anyone who has been around awhile would have told you to expect this. New and desirable watches from Rolex sell for decent premiums upon release and come back to approximately retail. The GV, the new destro Pelagos, this Daytona - all sell/sold above retail at release.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Etschell

The reason for the drop is there are more 2nd hand available

The reason for the drop is the tiny amount of people who would buy a Daytona for $6,000 over retail.

[AS1]

wow - nice work!

[seand442]

Out of curiosity, what about the 116610? That's what's on my radar.

[etp]

@seand $7100

[TheRolexKingofLV]

Great work Emile. I'm a numbers weirdo so I'm loving this thread! Can you do a separate 116500 white dial, and black dial...thanks again, and Merry Christmas!

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by etp

I bought my first Rolex earlier this year. After getting bit by the bug, I built a little side project to collect watch prices online. I find it interesting to see these trends.

One of the most interesting valuations being the resale value of 116500LNs. The resale value has fallen from $18k in October now down to ~$16,500. From the data, it doesn't look like that drop will slow either.

Anyway hopefully this is interesting to others. If you have a watch you'd like me to look up the value from my data, just let me know. Happy to help!

Happy holidays!

Those original knee jerk $18000 plus sales were mainly gone by mid October. I'm not disputing pricing wil eventually lean toward MSRP but it's not currently reflected in price trends on that chart, the exception being that tiny downturn which is skewed by a couple very recent low sales of Black Dialed ones, hardly looks like a trend at this point. Here is another snapshot on prices .

http://www.watchrecon.com/?brand=rol...ic&last_days=0

[cornerstore]

116500LN Daytona resale prices dropping
I bought my first Rolex earlier this year. After getting bit by the bug, I built a little side project to collect watch prices online. I find it interesting to see these trends.

One of the most interesting valuations being the resale value of 116500LNs. The resale value has fallen from $18k in October now down to ~$16,500. From the data, it doesn't look like that drop will slow either.

Anyway hopefully this is interesting to others. If you have a watch you'd like me to look up the value from my data, just let me know. Happy to help!

Happy holidays!



The earlier sales on the chart you posted were all for new watches now used ones are included in the latter part of the chart so one would expect average prices to drop on that factor alone. It still looks like on average $17k plus or minus 3% for nib, same trend since Sept. But yeh it's Christmas one can dream.

[trukai]

Great post! Really interesting seeing the trends

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

The reason for the drop is the tiny amount of people who would buy a Daytona for $6,000 over retail.

Sure. That is part of it too.

[Jfullm42]

This has been my favorite post to read in quite awhile, loving this. Thanks!

[Ragna]

Originally Posted by etp

Here it is broken down by white vs black dial. Looks pretty close as there isn't a consistent delta. In the last month, a couple of white dial prices seem to buck the trend, but I think those are abnormal.

Sir, I congractulate you for your initiative.

[ScottJ]

Thanks! Really interesting!

[RW16610]

Excellent info Thanks for sharing.

[KBM]

Very interesting!

[Gharddog03]

Very cool

[Oliver37]

Thank you, very cool! Can you help me understand what the "all watches" markers refer to in the Milgauss? There is a very straight row of them at a fairly high price.

Originally Posted by etp

Yep!

116334 - $6500
116400gv - $5950 for black dial (less than blue)