Boutiques Not Taking Deposits on 15202 or Blue 15400

[jschmidtdmd]

^ What I find interesting right now in my experience is that trade values across the board seem to be very low (with the exception of RM), but I am seeing insane sale prices for so many pieces. Usually, they seem to run somewhat parallel.

I don't work in this business, nor can I say I totally understand it, but they seem unhinged right now......and truly fluctuating week to week.

What do I know though.

[benlee]

Just for info, I was at the AP boutique Singapore w days ago and was also told that 15202 have a long waitlist and they are not taking any advance booking for now.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by benlee

Just for info, I was at the AP boutique Singapore w days ago and was also told that 15202 have a long waitlist and they are not taking any advance booking for now.

Has the Singapore boutique had a waitlist for a while?

The HK and Macau boutiques had stock back in July - no waitlist. I was able to walk off the street and buy one.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Chute

I'm with you Neil. I've been through three economic downturns and they all seemed to have one thing in common leading up to them: unnecessary items selling for way over retail. Now there are at least 5 watches that sell over retail: 116500, 5711, 5131, SS Skydweller, and now the 15202. Anyone seen a 5167 lately BNIB for retail? Me neither, so make that 6 models.

I'm saving my money for the next downturn and discount.

Well that's in the US which seems to be the last to be getting the price squeeze, in the UK , Europe and Asia this squeeze is going on more than a dozen popular models now. Feels a bit like Feb 2000... just before the dotcom crash...

Oh, and I'm Neil, he's Tom.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Chute

I'm with you Neil. I've been through three economic downturns and they all seemed to have one thing in common leading up to them: unnecessary items selling for way over retail. Now there are at least 5 watches that sell over retail: 116500, 5711, 5131, SS Skydweller, and now the 15202. Anyone seen a 5167 lately BNIB for retail? Me neither, so make that 6 models.

I'm saving my money for the next downturn and discount.

connecting watches selling over retail and overvalued tech stocks in the late 90's or to the housing market in 2008 is a bit of a stretch.

3 things were being speculated on, but they are not remotely comparable.

People made billions selling junk mortgages prior to the housing collapse. Watch speculators are making peanuts in scale.

With watches specifically, scarcity is fueling demand in many cases and is good business. If some of these watches were readily available the same people who want them now might not even buy one. People want what they can't have and will jump through all sorts of hoops to get it.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

^ What I find interesting right now in my experience is that trade values across the board seem to be very low (with the exception of RM), but I am seeing insane sale prices for so many pieces. Usually, they seem to run somewhat parallel.

I don't work in this business, nor can I say I totally understand it, but they seem unhinged right now......and truly fluctuating week to week.

What do I know though.

Ditto. Bid offer spread way out of whack, and nothing moves other than a few high demand pieces. I'm happy to sit tight and focus on what I have and maybe the occasional special order piece.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

connecting watches selling over retail and overvalued tech stocks in the late 90's or to the housing market in 2008 is a bit of a stretch.

3 things were being speculated on, but they are not remotely comparable.

People made billions selling junk mortgages prior to the housing collapse. Watch speculators are making peanuts in scale.

With watches specifically, scarcity is fueling demand in many cases and is good business. If some of these watches were readily available the same people who want them now might not even buy one. People want what they can't have and will jump through all sorts of hoops to get it.

Yes, but it's the same principle, huge over-demand drives up prices in both markets, only difference ofc is in financial markets there are short sellers and down betters so climbing markets will inevitably crash when enough signals are given to enough bears to trigger their positions. Watch market consists almost entirely of bulls ie enthusiasts so prices have no reason to crash, just to stabilise, which when prices are rising as rapidly as they are now I actually find even more unsettling. It's a strange one.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by AK797

Yes, but it's the same principle, huge over-demand drives up prices in both markets, only difference ofc is in financial markets there are short sellers and down betters so climbing markets will inevitably crash when enough signals are given to enough bears to trigger their positions. Watch market consists almost entirely of bulls ie enthusiasts so prices have no reason to crash, just to stabilise, which when prices are rising as rapidly as they are now I actually find even more unsettling. It's a strange one.

Prices won't crash, but then may take a hit and soften down the line.

A few examples from Patek come to mind. I remember when the 5960P came out it was going for above list, and now you can get a nice used one for sub-$50K. The 5980/1A when it first came out was also extremely hot (I know some grey market dealers in HK were buying double-sealed ones for upwards of USD$55,000), then used prices fell to about the mid-$30K range, and now are strong again. A more recent example would be the 5235G - they were going for above list on the grey market a few years ago and can now be had with some discount.

Panerai was also extremely strong at one point, but prices have come down quite a bit (my inkling is too many models).

It even seems to me that the market for limited edition AP ROOs have softened - outside of landmark pieces like the RBII or Schumi. Even the Montoya prices are quite a bit lower than what I saw them going for 5+ years ago. Again, maybe too many LEs, and people are flocking back to quality, timeless pieces.

[tng11]

A TS is selling a mint 2nd hand 15202 for $21,375... (Fun fact: It's only a few numbers away from mine and dated 2 weeks earlier... they're production line brothers.)

Not yet in 5711 territory - wouldn't use Govberg's prices as a reference point for the market.

[behardt]

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by behardt

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

That rumor has been going on for the last 3 years lol.

[scuba77]

Originally Posted by tng11

A TS is selling a mint 2nd hand 15202 for $21,375... (Fun fact: It's only a few numbers away from mine and dated 2 weeks earlier... they're production line brothers.)

Not yet in 5711 territory - wouldn't use Govberg's prices as a reference point for the market.

Very interesting I know 100% mine would be made end july/beg august as factory was closed for few weeks in august... the serial number is still J5***** , its high 50's...maybe there way working out production numbers for jumbo but no case numbers on watches anymore.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by behardt

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

Last year here in the Uk it switched from standard release to boutique only.

(Actually maybe it was early this year, but anyway the switch the supply method)

Also slightly off topic I was told by a US AD the ROC 26331st blue dial is a boutique only piece but here in the UK it's standard supply, can anyone confirm this?

[tng11]

Originally Posted by behardt

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

The problem with Chrono24 is many of the sellers don't have the watch. I remember when I was shopping back in March, I messaged a whack of the sellers selling BNIB at under $21K. None of them actually had it, or it was sold and hadn't been taken down.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by behardt

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

they are already in certain markets. I don't know about the US, but they already do sometimes get boutique models in AD's probably do to the fact the boutiques are so spread out geographically. I saw a "boutique only" blue 15400 in a houston AD so boutique only doesn't seem to be quite as strict.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by behardt

Heard a rumor last month that 15202ST is going to be boutique only and limited production after 2017. Could that be their reasoning? (rumors being what they are...)

PS: There's one new one on Chrono24 at $21,700.

That's already sold by the way.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

they are already in certain markets. I don't know about the US, but they already do sometimes get boutique models in AD's probably do to the fact the boutiques are so spread out geographically. I saw a "boutique only" blue 15400 in a houston AD so boutique only doesn't seem to be quite as strict.

Same in Canada - no official AP boutique here, so the 15202 is still sold at ADs. I've been told by the AD in Toronto that they've only gotten one over the last year.

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by tng11

Same in Canada - no official AP boutique here, so the 15202 is still sold at ADs. I've been told by the AD in Toronto that they've only gotten one over the last year.

Same as Vancouver, we haven't gotten one for a long time but they did say if anyone wanted one they will find a way to source it. Last time I was in, they had a RG version of the 15202.

I won't be surprised if an AP Boutique shows up in Vancouver in the very near future. We just added a few in the last couple of months (Hublot and Panerai) and IWC coming by Fall. Piaget following.

Vancouver Boutique List:
Omega (only one in Canada)
JLC (last year)
Rolex (opened last year) <-- apparently the largest one in North America
Hublot (opened 2 months ago) <-- only one in Canada?
Panerai (opened last month)
IWC (fall)
Piaget (tbd)
Chopard (fall)

Richemont pushing their brands onto Vancouver's "high-end" street on Alberni (contains individual stores / "boutiques" of Hermes, Prada, YSL, Versace, LV, Tiffany, Burberry, Van Cleef (Richemont - coming soon) etc). Figures crossed on Vacheron soon too.

I can see an AP boutique pop up very soon. Asian market has a huge influence right now.

Exciting to see


https://www.retail-insider.com/retai...-iwc-vancouver

[CJFromMA]

Originally Posted by SC11

Also slightly off topic I was told by a US AD the ROC 26331st blue dial is a boutique only piece but here in the UK it's standard supply, can anyone confirm this?

Not Boutique-only. I have this exact piece or order with a local (Connecticut) AD. Put the order in on August 3rd, delivery expected in October. There did not seem to be any concern about inability to fulfill-- as the factory confirmed with him a couple days after I ordered. Discount was available.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

Same as Vancouver, we haven't gotten one for a long time but they did say if anyone wanted one they will find a way to source it. Last time I was in, they had a RG version of the 15202.

I won't be surprised if an AP Boutique shows up in Vancouver in the very near future. We just added a few in the last couple of months (Hublot and Panerai) and IWC coming by Fall. Piaget following.

Vancouver Boutique List:
Omega (only one in Canada)
JLC (last year)
Rolex (opened last year)
Hublot (opened 2 months ago) <-- only one in Canada?
Panerai (opened last month)
IWC (fall)
Piaget (tbd)
Chopard (fall)

Richemont pushing their brands onto Vancouver's "high-end" street on Alberni (contains individual stores / "boutiques" of Hermes, Prada, YSL, Versace, LV, Tiffany, Burberry, Van Cleef (Richemont - coming soon) etc). Figures crossed on Vacheron soon too.

I can see an AP boutique pop up very soon. Asian market has a huge influence right now.

Exciting to see


https://www.retail-insider.com/retai...-iwc-vancouver

I'm surprised we don't have one in Toronto. We even have a Richard Mille boutique (which replaced the FPJ boutique), but no AP.

Richemont opened IWC, Vacheron, Piaget and Panerai boutiques at Yorkdale Shopping Mall, which is seeming to become the new hot place for luxury boutiques (though Yorkville IMO reigns supreme.)

What is also surprising is there is no Patek Philippe dealer in the heart of the city - have to go to a strip mall out in the skirts for our only PP dealer. Tiffany had them like a decade ago.

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by tng11

I'm surprised we don't have one in Toronto. We even have a Richard Mille boutique (which replaced the FPJ boutique), but no AP.

Richemont opened IWC, Vacheron, Piaget and Panerai boutiques at Yorkdale Shopping Mall, which is seeming to become the new hot place for luxury boutiques (though Yorkville IMO reigns supreme.)

What is also surprising is there is no Patek Philippe dealer in the heart of the city - have to go to a strip mall out in the skirts for our only PP dealer. Tiffany had them like a decade ago.

Yeah, that's what I've noticed before when I went over to Toronto.

Brinkhaus carries Patek in Vancouver and they are on the next street from Alberni. I've heard several ADs moving onto Alberni shortly too (one that carries AP for Vancouver exclusively).

Also just heard we finally got a FP Journe AD as a result of the AD losing Panerai (Panerai took it back for the Boutique).

[Tay821]

When I put my deposit down in NYC this summer I was told the 15202st is going boutique only in 2018. Those who put orders/deposits at ADs will (likely) be fulfilled but I was told there's a cut off date in 2017 just because of production. What that date is, I don't know. I'm expecting delivery of mine this fall.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by CJFromMA

Not Boutique-only. I have this exact piece or order with a local (Connecticut) AD. Put the order in on August 3rd, delivery expected in October. There did not seem to be any concern about inability to fulfill-- as the factory confirmed with him a couple days after I ordered. Discount was available.

Thanks for clarifying that

[sachit]

Paid the deposit for 15202 in march at the boutique expected delivery between Oct to Dec. The boutique manager told me September-October but the now the sales girl says December. I really hope they won't extend it to next year because I started it with a very bad note. First I promised for 15400&15202 then when 15400 Blue was available I changed my mind for 15202


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[olc]

Originally Posted by sachit

Paid the deposit for 15202 in march at the boutique expected delivery between Oct to Dec. The boutique manager told me September-October but the now the sales girl says December. I really hope they won't extend it to next year because I started it with a very bad note. First I promised for 15400&15202 then when 15400 Blue was available I changed my mind for 15202


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Which boutique?


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[sachit]

Originally Posted by olc

Which boutique?


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I'm sorry it's not in US..


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[KBM]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is strange, I bought my 15400 blue dial from Beverly Hills, they had one to me in a few days - no discount. Call Ebony there and tell her Bryan sent you.

Thanks for the referral, Bryan. I'm actually looking at purchasing a 15400 with a blue dial and called Ebony last Friday, as you suggested - kudos!

She told me, however, that they will only receive another one of those on the second quarter of 2018 and there is 1 other customer in front of me on the line.

[tonupbklyn]

2017 pre-owned jumbo listed by watchuwant (aka govberg) on ebay for 27k.
wow...WOW!

[tng11]

Originally Posted by tonupbklyn

2017 pre-owned jumbo listed by watchuwant (aka govberg) on ebay for 27k.
wow...WOW!

They could ask 50K for all I care. Question is if there's a fool buying at that price.

A TS had one for $21,375 last week... disappeared in a flash.

[Zymol]

Originally Posted by benlee

Just for info, I was at the AP boutique Singapore w days ago and was also told that 15202 have a long waitlist and they are not taking any advance booking for now.

I didnt have much issues with a 15202. But i had to travel to KL boutique to get it. Messaged the boutique 2 months in advance, and they had 1 waiting for me when i fly up for some work. don't think it was coincidence or what. along the way, the shop messaged me just to keep me warm and gather if was just trying my luck or really flying up to get it.

but i guess it does help if you bought a couple from them.