Pepsi prices falling?

[exador]

Originally Posted by torifile

It is true. I’m in a wholesaler group* with Federico and I’ve witnessed the price drop a couple thousand $ in the past month or so.

* I’m not a wholesaler, I just enjoy seeing the market from a different perspective.

Genuine query - how can Greys be ‘wholesalers’ when they are buying their stock off retailers?

[chsu74]

Was just here in Asia at the Rolex store. They will sell at MSRP but need to buy an existing Tudor stock inventory piece at time of deivery. Still taking names for waiting list.

[herts9]

I know it's typical supply and demand, but a SS Pepsi being DOUBLE a BLNR? Wow.. I'd rather have two of those

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by exador

Genuine query - how can Greys be ‘wholesalers’ when they are buying their stock off retailers?

Fed has touched on how dealers trade watches in his other videos. For instance, people in NY may have different taste/preference to say, people in Miami. Some louder watches may sell better in Miami but not in NY (not implying who has good or bad taste, this is just an example); hence, Miami dealers may trade watches that do not sell well in Miami with NY dealers, and vice versa. IIRC, these dealers meet a few times per year at a location to "trade" their inventory at wholesale price.

These videos are all in YT. I remember seeing other videos not made by Fed on the topic of wholesale watch market too. Of course, it's up to viewers to discern whether these contents are fake news or not.

[Gary.]

I wonder how many clicks this thread has already sent his way....

[HL65]

Originally Posted by lapince

In maximum 2 years prices will be at BLNR prices, a little above retail but nothing special, I am very happy to get one next Xmas, I might be ok to pay 1500-2000 premium if I didn't have my AD, but would never pay more, of course prices will fall just wait a little, the ones going for crazy prices are just because they haven't hit ADs yet, they will adjust

Ok - noted.


Clearly as long as demand stays sky high and supply stays super tight the watch will stay very strong. The BLNR never had this kind of Daytona like demand and how long it lasts we shall see. In fact BLNR didn’t even sell for a premium until this past year and most were able to buy for a discount. I remember back to all those threads about how the 116500 would never stay at hefty premiums once supply opened up and guess what no supply still. So we shall see what happens and will look forward to coming back to this thread in 2 years.

[Mini2]

Let's be honest, the only way prices will stay true is with limited supply however when all these warranty cards get dished back to owners in 12 months the supply MIGHT be more than meets demand
Various ADS I KNOW HAVE HAD 2 if not 3 pepsis already compared with blue sky dwellers some have not even had 1 and they have been out over 16 months

Whatever reason supply of the Pepsi GMT seems to be so much greater than the so called other hard pieces like Daytona and sky dweller

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by eco8gator

I have always wondered why the horned one was not welcome here. He loves Rolex steel sports and it's anyone's guess how many people purchased explorer 2s or other steel sports Rolex because of him. Heck if it wasn't for him I would have made some costly mistakes...

But to Feds point, I did see a Pepsi for 19k...

Originally Posted by kdqq

I think it could be because consumers are learning to be patient.
Many of us are waiting and refusing to pay 125% of retail prices. In turn grey dealers are having difficult time moving these pieces, thus lowering prices.

It is a game of patients. Grey dealers that can afford to hold, will. Smaller ones will lower their prices for a faster turn around.

If rolex increases the supply, consumers win. If they dont, its a matter of time that the grey prices become the norm, just like the Daytonas.

Originally Posted by torifile

It is true. I’m in a wholesaler group* with Federico and I’ve witnessed the price drop a couple thousand $ in the past month or so.

* I’m not a wholesaler, I just enjoy seeing the market from a different perspective.

I actually wouldn’t describe it as prices falling at all. I think there is a very simple explanation.

First. Let’s get the facts (as far as I know) straight:

-DavidSW set the pricing at $21,875(or thereabouts) when he listed the first one online. This set the standard and the market followed with prices around $20,000-23,000. But really, where did this number come from? It hadn’t been tested by the market yet. For all we know it was an attempt to make the market.

-The lowest David has listed one for that I’ve seen is $19,975. I’ve also seen some for sale in wholesale groups by lower volume sellers for around mid-19’s. So the price has dropped around 10% or so off a very arbitrary initial price setting.

In my opinion the price hasn’t fallen at all, instead it’s just regulated to a true market value. Add in there that more “flippers” are attracted at these premiums which may add a bit more in overall inventory. However I’m not convinced that the major gray dealers would actually adjust their pricing down with surplus inventory.

So to sum it up. The 126710 was never a $22,000 watch. It seems it’s closer to $18,000-19,000 for the time being. Just like everything else as inventory increases and there are more on the market the price may adjust down further. But that takes a long time and as I said before I’m not convinced that the big gray dealers will even let this happen. They control more of the secondary pricing than many of us think.

The talk of the Pepsi at MSRP is complete nonsense. There’s only one way that’s happening. The day you can walk into an AD and buy one immediately or with very little wait. And it’s highly highly unlikely that’s happening anytime soon.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Let's be honest, the only way prices will stay true is with limited supply however when all these warranty cards get dished back to owners in 12 months the supply MIGHT be more than meets demand
Various ADS I KNOW HAVE HAD 2 if not 3 pepsis already compared with blue sky dwellers some have not even had 1 and they have been out over 16 months

Whatever reason supply of the Pepsi GMT seems to be so much greater than the so called other hard pieces like Daytona and sky dweller

The movement is much simpler to make and given that its their new “bread and butter” movement they will be able to release more (theoretically). I understand the Daytona movement is quite difficult to make and I can’t imagine the SD movement is that much easier. So that said, yes I would expect the Pepsi to be more readily available. Whilst popular, it’s really still quite a simple piece when compared to the others mentioned.

[Gary.]

Seems like the Greys who go in hard with super-high prices are thinking very short term. The moment a couple of watches go for less, the perception shifts to the one we're seeing here. "Hey, prices are coming down. Don't pay that much. Wait a bit....etc"

So short term.

[Matc]

Prices will come down. Guaranteed.

[superstarmar]

I think they are ...

[ALF61]

I just talked to my AD and am first in his list from Basel when I asked him for either a pepsi or coke whatever. He placed the order right then and still has not received any. He is gettin g a shipment next week and just notified me that my watch is not in it. He has a CHNR which is already spoken for but will call me when it is in so I can have a looksee. Somehow I feel perception is that the market is being flooded with watches when in reality it is not.

[SeeitBuyit]

Obviously, prices are crazy. Some dip is normal as supply increases and, not all the flippers can afford to hold onto their AD buy so, they will be willing to take less money. Credit card bills come due. Just my two cents.

[Demeter008]

This is when procrastinating is a good thing!!

[bdex75]

From 2.5x msrp to 2x msrp!!!!!

Look out, its a regular ole fire sale at the AD!!!!!

Have 2 friends that have theirs from 2 AD's that I have relationships with as well. If I wanted one and was willing to wait for a bit one could easily be had at MSRP. these prices are nutso.

[jfmiii]

I'm curious where these are actually trading. I saw a bunch listed for $21k and they all sat for a while. Then people listed for $20k and they sat. Seem to be asking in the $19s now and sitting for the most part with some sellers offering them in the high $18s OBO. if everyone posted where they were buying all the grey pieces, there would be much more transparency and much less pricing power held by the grey market.

[oldman2005]

IMO Depends on what you believe in:

- Rolex scarcity marketing: Then new BLRO and all ceramic SS sports such SD43, BLNR, Sub..production is limited indefinitely to maintain an artificial high demand this would result in higher aftermarket price for all SS ceramic Sport/not just SS BLRO.
- China/global unexpected high demand: Then Rolex production will catch up eventual, BLRO and rest of SS sports will be easily obtained at ADs in a year or two, which will result in much lower aftermarket price.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

IMO Depends on what you believe in:

A- Rolex scarcity marketing: Then new BLRO and all ceramic SS sports such SD43, BLNR, Sub..production is limited indefinitely to maintain an artificial high demand this would result in higher aftermarket price for all SS ceramic Sport/not just SS BLRO.
B- China/global unexpected high demand: Then Rolex production will catch up eventual, BLRO and rest of SS sports will be easily obtained at ADs in a year or two, which will result in much lower aftermarket price.

I believe it’s B with regards to Rolex and A with regards to the authorized dealers.

[Michigan_State]

Prices seem to come down rather quickly. At least one BNIB is posted at $18,xxx, already, with others trending towards mid $19,xxx‘s. The BLRO is no Daytona and most buyers seem reluctant to picking one up at 2.X times MSRP. Just wait, it’ll trade around $15k a year from now.

[Singslinger]

ADs in Singapore have been warned by Rolex not to sell any watch over MSRP.

I'm not sure what the consequences might be for those who don't heed this warning but my understanding is that with the risk of losing the very lucrative Rolex dealership hanging over their heads, all ADs have been forced to sell at MSRP.

Of course this means putting one's name on long waiting lists that could stretch to as much as 8 years for the Daytona-C and the new Pepsi.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by Michigan_State

Prices seem to come down rather quickly. At least one BNIB is posted at $18,xxx, already, with others trending towards mid $19,xxx‘s. The BLRO is no Daytona and most buyers seem reluctant to picking one up at 2.X times MSRP. Just wait, it’ll trade around $15k a year from now.

$15k is still around 50% above retail.

I think as Ken touched upon the demand for the Pepsi is far higher than BLNR.
Personally I'm not bothered either way as I buy watches for the pleasure of wearing them not flipping or investing. Sure its great not to lose money but I wouldn't park my money in watches if money was foremost on my mind.

However, I think this ones got legs and will remain high in demand maybe just under the Daytona ceramics.

[Quamby]

Originally Posted by Singslinger

ADs in Singapore have been warned by Rolex not to sell any watch over MSRP.

I'm not sure what the consequences might be for those who don't heed this warning but my understanding is that with the risk of losing the very lucrative Rolex dealership hanging over their heads, all ADs have been forced to sell at MSRP.

Of course this means putting one's name on long waiting lists that could stretch to as much as 8 years for the Daytona-C and the new Pepsi.

There are many ways an AD can circumvent Rolex's rules without getting caught.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by ALF61

I just talked to my AD and am first in his list from Basel when I asked him for either a pepsi or coke whatever. He placed the order right then and still has not received any. He is gettin g a shipment next week and just notified me that my watch is not in it. He has a CHNR which is already spoken for but will call me when it is in so I can have a looksee. Somehow I feel perception is that the market is being flooded with watches when in reality it is not.

I think the Pepsi is coming in regularly but not huge supplies.
However there is huge demand and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Also, Rolex love this kind of hype. They'll enable it as long and as much as possible, no question, and sell tons of DJ's in the meantime.

[Quicksilver]

New Pepsi prices will go down once they start trickling through and that's what were seeing. This is not the same as the Daytona - an allocation reference where supplies are deliberately kept low to create a mystique and feed a frenzy. Rolex will be producing many more Pepsi's than Daytona's - by comparison, it is a mass produced bread and butter sports Rolex. Price's will remain above retail for the foreseeable fortune, but the trend is down.

[eco8gator]

There is one for 19k even in the classifieds...they are dropping:)

[VicLeChic]

I suspect a large chunk of the demand for the BLRO at ADs is from flippers eager to turn a quick buck. So this part of the demand will transform into more supply in the gray market and push prices down eventually. Fictitious high demand in other words.

[jaisonline]

It wouldn’t surprise me if Rolex makes the same # of SS Daytona models as the Sub date, GMT, etc... judging by online resellers, I see about just as many black + white SS Daytona models as SS Sub dates and SS GMTs. However, only a dealer or gray reseller prob knows for sure.

I do think there's one thing can keep a ceiling on Pepsi prices (agree with you about Pepsi prices will remain well above MSRP) : there are plenty of discontinued SS Pepsi models for buyers (disregarding bezel material) while the same can’t be said for black SS bezel Daytona’s. Plus buyers can also buy a Pepsi bezel insert for discontinued models.

Side thought... I think prospective buyers will eventually lose interest in the Jubilee bracelet which could help prices. Not everyone has a spare 6 digit GMT Oyster bracket around to put on it...

Originally Posted by Quicksilver

New Pepsi prices will go down once they start trickling through and that's what were seeing. This is not the same as the Daytona - an allocation reference where supplies are deliberately kept low to create a mystique and feed a frenzy. Rolex will be producing many more Pepsi's than Daytona's - by comparison, it is a mass produced bread and butter sports Rolex. Price's will remain above retail for the foreseeable fortune, but the trend is down.

[Robbyman]

Do we really care on the secondary market. I don't think many on here buy at over retail priving and most won't be flipping.

[rodo]

Originally Posted by Rolexism_

I have not seen even one Pepsi yet in Canada. There was one that came to a grey dealer but was already pre sold and it was a US watch. Very much still crazy hot in Canada.

I tried one on this weekend at AD, however it was spoken for