Rolex SeaDweller 126600 Anniversary

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I completely agree with all of the above.

SD43 is a very cool reference. I have one, but for reasons state above it is not going to be a big deal $$$ wise in the near future. The only exception to this would be if the "red" seadweller were to become white..but there are no signs of that.

What is interesting is that although the previous model SD4K has increased in popularity, it still trades barely above it's retail. That is not great considering how "few" were made in a short period. The SD is just not a consistent collector favorite. The 5 digit references are further examples of this as those older SD are trading lower than Sub Dates and in some cases lower than 14060 ND...

The market just doesn't appreciate the SD like it appreciates the Sub.

Always appreciate your insight and posts and I think you’re spot on again here too.

[msimiliano]

Hi

I obviously like the watch, a lot in fact and that’s the main reason I would eventually buy it.
When I used the word investment, maybe mistakenly, I also clarified that with that I mean value retains not value increase, I wold never buy a watch thinking to make money but to know at least I wouldn’t loose much it is a plus.

[msimiliano]

Interesting.
Many thanks

[np208]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

So ultimately like others recommended, but what you really want and will wear. Put your investment money in the stock market or other investment avenues not in a Rolex
Good luck!

This!

[jonnyz1245]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I completely agree with all of the above.

SD43 is a very cool reference. I have one, but for reasons state above it is not going to be a big deal $$$ wise in the near future. The only exception to this would be if the "red" seadweller were to become white..but there are no signs of that.

What is interesting is that although the previous model SD4K has increased in popularity, it still trades barely above it's retail. That is not great considering how "few" were made in a short period. The SD is just not a consistent collector favorite. The 5 digit references are further examples of this as those older SD are trading lower than Sub Dates and in some cases lower than 14060 ND...

The market just doesn't appreciate the SD like it appreciates the Sub.

I think that the SD43 could be different and the reason being is it now has a cyclops and is a larger size than the original SD. One of the reasons I believe SD traditionally has not been as collectable or as popular as a sub is the lack of cyclops. To the average joe, the cyclops IS Rolex and they aren't about the spend Rolex money without it looking like a Rolex. Clyclops, red text, and size may be a factor in leading towards an increase in desire in the collectors market 20 years from now. I could also be completely wrong. Time will tell

[wytrader]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

2. The watch is still being received at dealers with the mk1 dial

T

When you ASSuME you do something.

That AD's are eventually SELLING said watches does not verify that they recently recieved them. That they are finally calling customers to get rid of old dials because the new ones have come out does not verify that Rolex shipped those watches later.

My humble guess would be that all mk1 dials shipped before mk2 dials and AD's are the delay. Some will sell inventory on day of arrival, others will hold and strategically call or wait to bundle.

[wytrader]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Secondly, the mk1 dial is still being received by Authorized Dealers.

Wrong again.

You chose to highlight subjective views in other posts... this is BS once again.

AD's are possible even more mysterious than Rolex manufacturing.

[wytrader]

Originally Posted by dusko.popov

2. The watch is still being received at dealers with the mk1 dial

bs # 3

[wytrader]

Originally Posted by dusko.popov

1. Ads are still receiving mk1 dials. The watch is still being received and in the supply chain. I’m not sure why rolex would dispatch a watch that’s not being produced. I don’t think the dial is being produced still. But the watch itself, with a mk1 dial, is still arriving at dealers.

# 4

[VicLeChic]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

I’ll try this again to make sure we’re clear. I think you’ve misread me and I’ve misread you (I know I did) So hopefully we can take this from here:

1. Ads are still receiving mk1 dials. The watch is still being received and in the supply chain. I’m not sure why Rolex would dispatch a watch that’s not being produced. I don’t think the dial is being produced still. But the watch itself, with a mk1 dial, is still arriving at dealers.

If I were to guess from there, I’d say that they are using up surplus dials.

But the fact remains that two years later, mk1 dials are landing and delivery is being taken.

That is remarkably different from the 16610lv experience. Much different.

Hopefully that clears up confusion.

The only way for a collector to know 100% if the SD43 mk1 was made in 2017 (50th anniversary year) is if it was purchased in 2017 or early 2018.

However, I think Rolex have been withholding stock of 2017 SD43s to then gradually release them thoughtout 2017-2019. I very much doubt they've been using old mk1 dials in 2018 and 2019 after having produced new mk2 dials. I'm convinced the mk1 dial was a nod to the 50th anniversary year, it was planned from the onset.

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Now factor in that we don’t know how the market or collectors will receive the sd43 in 20 years. Will there be a harkening back to traditional sea dweller heritage and a rejection of the new sea dweller silhouette? The new sd43 is such a departure from the 50 years prior that who really knows.

And equally who's to say collectors won't consider a green bezel as something totally outlandish? Or the opposite could be true, the first one to start a new trend could be the one that counts. Anything's possible.

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

On a separate comparison point, a Sea Dweller and a Sub are not equal from a relative popularity standpoint. Generation over generation (comparatively) the sub is more popular and holds value better. So for anyone (not saying you did) to compare a sea dweller to the most iconic watch perhaps ever (Sub), in order to project its price trajectory, is a farce.

No one is saying the SD is more popular than the Sub. You're the one who brought the 16610LV to the conversation.

My price projection of the SD43 is based on its first 23 months since release. It's obviously mostly speculative as this is what the OP is interested in. You can consider any projection to be a farce but mine at least takes into account two factors which I consider relevant, the uniqueness of the SD43 mk1 and the pro steel scarcity.

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Let’s add this too, you could probably count on two hands the number of people who had the idea to keep a 16610lv new and untouched. You could probably count the number of people on two hands and two feet who decided to save the box and papers.

These informational forums were just not that prevalent. People bought watches to wear instead of the rampant speculation that’s happening now.

The environment around the sub lv in 2003 versus the sd43 15 years later are just so different.

Everyone is speculating. The only way I would hold an sd43 is with the hopes that they change the “Sea Dweller” font color. Otherwise, I think there will be a lot of disappointed folks when their $11,300 watch isn’t valued at what they thought it would be.

Too much speculation in 2019.

Just my opinion ...

You seem to forget one very important detail, the demand for sports steel has exploded worldwide, partially due to social networks and forums. So if the number of speculators is probably higher than before, so is the number of those who buy to wear. We're in a situation where it's very difficult to get your hands on a SD or any pro model. How many SD43s were produced in 2017, a few thousands maybe? How big do you think the demand for sports steel is worldwide? Hundreds of thousands if not more? Say half owners of SD43 from 2017 are speculators, what's that in front of a voracious demand? It's not like the few 2017 SD43s are going to flood the preowned market and meet demand. It's always going to be a seller's market when we talk discontinued models produced in relative small quantities.

But hey, it's for the OP to decide. No one has a crystal ball. I don't advocate buying watches as investments. But the SD43 has gained more than 20% in two years, fact Not bad for an "unpopular" or niche model. Maybe people see in it more than just another run of the mill sports steel model.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by wytrader

When you ASSuME you do something.

That AD's are eventually SELLING said watches does not verify that they recently recieved them. That they are finally calling customers to get rid of old dials because the new ones have come out does not verify that Rolex shipped those watches later.

My humble guess would be that all mk1 dials shipped before mk2 dials and AD's are the delay. Some will sell inventory on day of arrival, others will hold and strategically call or wait to bundle.

Not sure why the vitriol. But ok.

I have an acquaintance/friend who is an ad. You’re welcome to click on my name and scroll through my posts from 2-3 years ago. I mentioned him in the ceramic Daytona incoming thread from 2016 (I had white [August] and black [June] ceramic Daytona in 2016). Pictures are there for verification. I was also able to help a forum member get a ceramic Daytona in 2017 (post verified).

You’ll invariably feel that I’m bragging about access to pieces but that’s not my point. My point is to highlight that I’ve mentioned my acquaintance/friend who is an ad before and not simply for the convenience of this point in this thread. I don’t care enough about this entire subject matter to do that.

With all that said, I know 100% for a fact that he received an mk1 dial sd43 in February. There is no speculation there. It’s a fact.

If you don’t believe me, that’s ok too. I’m ok agreeing to disagree. Not sure what all the vitriol is for but here’s a beer.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by VicLeChic

The only way for a collector to know 100% if the SD43 mk1 was made in 2017 (50th anniversary year) is if it was purchased in 2017 or early 2018.

However, I think Rolex have been withholding stock of 2017 SD43s to then gradually release them thoughtout 2017-2019. I very much doubt they've been using old mk1 dials in 2018 and 2019 after having produced new mk2 dials. I'm convinced the mk1 dial was a nod to the 50th anniversary year, it was planned from the onset.


And equally who's to say collectors won't consider a green bezel as something totally outlandish? Or the opposite could be true, the first one to start a new trend could be the one that counts. Anything's possible.



No one is saying the SD is more popular than the Sub. You're the one who brought the 16610LV to the conversation.

My price projection of the SD43 is based on its first 23 months since release. It's obviously mostly speculative as this is what the OP is interested in. You can consider any projection to be a farce but mine at least takes into account two factors which I consider relevant, the uniqueness of the SD43 mk1 and the pro steel scarcity.




You seem to forget one very important detail, the demand for sports steel has exploded worldwide, partially due to social networks and forums. So if the number of speculators is probably higher than before, so is the number of those who buy to wear. We're in a situation where it's very difficult to get your hands on a SD or any pro model. How many SD43s were produced in 2017, a few thousands maybe? How big do you think the demand for sports steel is worldwide? Hundreds of thousands if not more? Say half owners of SD43 from 2017 are speculators, what's that in front of a voracious demand? It's not like the few 2017 SD43s are going to flood the preowned market and meet demand. It's always going to be a seller's market when we talk discontinued models produced in relative small quantities.

But hey, it's for the OP to decide. No one has a crystal ball. I don't advocate buying watches as investments. But the SD43 has gained more than 20% in two years, fact Not bad for an "unpopular" or niche model. Maybe people see in it more than just another run of the mill sports steel model.

1. I disagree with you. I don’t think Rolex has been withholding stock. I think there are a bunch of surplus dials for whatever reason and they’re finding their way to cases.

But here is the beauty of it, there is no way for us to know one way or the other. We both have an opinion. Both supportable with reason and good argument. Reasonable minds can differ. The only thing we know is that ads are still receiving them for some reason. What’s the reason? Who knows. But it’s fun to speculate.

2. I think that history has told us that the collector community has been a friend to Rolex’ green motiff as an anniversary tribute. We don’t know how good history will be to the new Sea Dweller. And Sea Dwellers historically don’t have near the price action that their Submariner cousins have. The response from the collector community has been mixed anecdotally. And I mean the response to the silhouette has been mixed. The piece is selling but all steel sports are selling and we don’t know units or what that means in this environment. It’s hard to use “they don’t sit in cases” to parse/discern reception to the change anymore.

In the meantime, it’s just fun to chat about.

3. All steel sports models have gone up or stayed flat when they traditionally dipped slightly (especially used) ... it’s not just the sd43.

Look at the 116610 for example. It’s enjoying a price trend that it’s never seen. They sell flat to msrp used or sell for a 10% premium new. Kinda weird. Then look at the lv and the blnr. They’re not anniversary pieces. It’s just the whirlwind we’re in. Not sure it will hold. Not sure of anything though when it comes to steel sports models. *More on this - relative to the sd43 - after the next paragraph.

I remember seeing Milgauss’ (used) sell on eBay in 2016 for $4500. I remember seeing Explorer 2 (used) sell for $5500. From my ad bud I got 20% off an Explorer, a Sub lv, and an ln gmt, 25% off two tone gmt, 10% off a blnr.

Things have certainly changed.

I just don’t agree with you that the price trends for the sd43 (your mention of a 20% rise in value) are indicative of a sustainable upward trend trajectory that admits a preference for the anniversary component of the sd43. I think it’s just riding the wave that everything else is riding ... (asterisk reference above)

But again, it’s ok to disagree. It will take many years for us to be able to reflect and analyze this and make sense of it.

4. Yep, I brought up the sublv because the flat-4, f-serial (which I own) has been used as a comparison to the sd43 in myriad threads. So it’s ok to bring up now because it’s the elephant in the room.

This environment is different - replete with speculators who are safe-storing pieces in hopes of riches in the future. There was a time a when people just bought the piece to wear. Thereafter unintentional condition/provenance-attrition (people just wore them and beat them up and threw away the box and papers) caused certain examples to rise in value.

Now everyone is buying and storing pieces to put on eBay in 20 years.

What will be the price impact of all these different variables?

Methinks there will be a lot of disappointed folks because attrition isn’t going to happen.

Just my opinion bro. We shall see ...

[wytrader]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Not sure why the vitriol. But ok.

I have an acquaintance/friend who is an ad. You’re welcome to click on my name and scroll through my posts from 2-3 years ago. I mentioned him in the ceramic Daytona incoming thread from 2016 (I had white [August] and black [June] ceramic Daytona in 2016). Pictures are there for verification. I was also able to help a forum member get a ceramic Daytona in 2017 (post verified).

You’ll invariably feel that I’m bragging about access to pieces but that’s not my point. My point is to highlight that I’ve mentioned my acquaintance/friend who is an ad before and not simply for the convenience of this point in this thread. I don’t care enough about this entire subject matter to do that.

With all that said, I know 100% for a fact that he received an mk1 dial sd43 in February. There is no speculation there. It’s a fact.

If you don’t believe me, that’s ok too. I’m ok agreeing to disagree. Not sure what all the vitriol is for but here’s a beer.

Congrats on your watches and helping out fellow forum members is fantastic.

And interesting that you might have spotted a Rolex mistake that they shipped your AD buddy an old watch. Is it an independant AD that gets supply direct from Rolex or is it a group AD getting supply from group headoffice?

I just find it hard to believe Rolex making 2 version dials simultaniously. Therefore I believe Mk1 dials were made before Mk2 dials and mostly sold as such.

Others in this thread have highlighted aspects of the SD43's existence which may increase its future value which you have seemed to attack, hence my reply that you 4 times have used AD's (plural) recieiving (plural) mk1 dials after they had already recieved mk2 dials which I find strange and do not believe to be fact (I believe your unique case as described above but do not think that thats the norm).

But its all relatively unimportant. I believe there is only a very tiny chance that this watch becomes a super collectable as the LV as SD demand is miniscule compared to that of the Sub.

Enjoy your watches!

[ppalasthira]

Just buy what you like. If it’s a Rolex sports, most likely you’ll get most of your money back when you sell.

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by ppalasthira

Just buy what you like. If it’s a Rolex sports, most likely you’ll get most of your money back when you sell.

agree! if you like the watch(which I think it has a much better proportion than the sub) and have the chance of getting it at msrp, it's a no brainer.

[oldman2005]

I think the most important thing is buy it because you like it, if your watch worths more $$$ in the future then it would be cool. When the 50th anv Sub was still in production, like many here they said these watches were not collectable and wouldn't worth much the future. Now I heard the same with 50th SD especially from those who don't own this beautiful watch. I don't really care since I enjoy the watch and do think it will worth much more. Time will tell.

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by VicLeChic

Doesn't matter if ADs or even Rolex are withholding stock. The moment the mk2 showed up in summer 2018 is the proof Rolex started producing them instead of mk1 unless you entertain the fancy theory they're producing mk1 and mk2 at the same time.

Since you chose to ignore everything else in my post, I'll repeat it for the OP. SD43 mk1: first SD with 43mm (a departure from classic 40mm SDs), first SD with a cyclops (couldn't be done before), first pro with 3235, only pro with the 3235 and without the crown at 6. Font for number 1 different (sans serif) in 1,220m. People remember the first and the little oddities.

Draw your own conclusions...

^^^ Agreed.
Also Rolex collectors have always been about the little details when it comes to dials, and the MK1 SD50 does not disappoint when it comes to this.

With multiple (billboard by Rolex standards) dial differences from the MK2 they were not being very coy.
Also I believe those who think it will be unpopular with future collectors due to its eccentricities are horribly Mistaken; What’s more, history has shown that collectors swoon over firsts, and eccentricities, about as much as dial’s.

Adds up to the perfect storm for a future, or even modern classic SD50 MK1.

[Rafabond]

since 1995 I am using (among many watches I have) a Submariner 300m. Two weeks ago my AD sold me the SD43 MK1, I must say that for me it is the ideal watch, it has everything that I needed in the sub300m. 43mm, robustness, etc. and that fantastic matt and red dial. It is for me the reference diver, you have to have both models to understand what I feel.

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

I think the most important thing is buy it because you like it, if your watch worths more $$$ in the future then it would be cool. When the 50th anv Sub was still in production, like many here they said these watches were not collectable and wouldn't worth much the future. Now I heard the same with 50th SD especially from those who don't own this beautiful watch. I don't really care since I enjoy the watch and do think it will worth much more. Time will tell.

Would agree...just enjoy a really great watch!

[MaxVonFuerstenwalde]

Originally Posted by wytrader

Nowhere near as collectible as LV. Sub demand is much greater than SD demand.
No one knows how many.
Any SS Rolex is currently retaining value.
Great to hear you can get one, go for it.

Current price is the best predictor of future price. If everyone thought it would go flying in the future you probably would not be offered one. Is it a great watch? For sure. The world is a funny place, if a popstar collector mentions its a sleeper future star demand will shoot through the roof.

Good luck with your choice.

MATE THAT IS ABSURD: Single RED Seadwellers are selling for more than 300,000. Alittle knowledge HURTS! I think it is highly collectable with MKI dial. The MKII I agree the HULK is likely better. I also LOVE the 116600!

perezcope has great article on single red SD

[TheGuvna]

Originally Posted by wytrader

When you ASSuME you do something.

That AD's are eventually SELLING said watches does not verify that they recently recieved them. That they are finally calling customers to get rid of old dials because the new ones have come out does not verify that Rolex shipped those watches later.

My humble guess would be that all mk1 dials shipped before mk2 dials and AD's are the delay. Some will sell inventory on day of arrival, others will hold and strategically call or wait to bundle.

Originally Posted by wytrader

Wrong again.

You chose to highlight subjective views in other posts... this is BS once again.

AD's are possible even more mysterious than Rolex manufacturing.

Originally Posted by wytrader

bs # 3

Originally Posted by wytrader

# 4

FWIW these aren't a bunch of different points you are calling BS on, it is one, that he was repeatedly trying to make and fell upon deaf ears.

The multiple quotes button is very useful!

[fasttimes6239]

It will be one of the most collectible ones imo……purists will be hypocritical either way…..cyclops or not to cyclops…..the watch came from a sub which ……later got a cyclops……so why is the cyclops really an issue?……the idea to keep it looking different than a sub and a higher performing professional watch makes sense when it came to making it as a 43 and with a cyclops……but that’s my opinion…..it’s still says I came from a sub but I’m better. It’s also probably the largest watch that won’t look like your wearing a flavor flave clock on your wrist……as for the best anniversary……it’s not! But it’s a damn cool unofficial anniversary! It’s $ u likely won’t lose and will likely perform like a conservative etf that you can wear!

[kuuttingg]

I bought mine late May 2018. I was told by AD that they just received it on the day that I bought it. I like this watch!

[Reikolexguy]

The mark 1 dial will probably be a collectible piece.

But it is unlikely that you’ll get to enjoy the return on your investment.

Because you’ll either be too old or dead by the time it actually becomes a multi bagger investment. It’s one to leave to the kids.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Agamemnon]

Watches are bought if you like them and if you are satisfied with them.
If they then increase in value, even better. But that goes in the background for me.
As Reikolexguy just said, only your descendants will be able to benefit from the increase in value of your SD43. So sit back and enjoy your watch carefree.

[Linuxpenguins]

The Sea Dweller to own is SD4k. Now that is a watch!

[Manamana]

Originally Posted by Linuxpenguins

The Sea Dweller to own is SD4k. Now that is a watch!

The SD4k is too thick for its size of 40, and has no cyclops so no Rolex DNA, known for being a failure for Rolex because nobody wanted it. The SD43 which is the 50th anniversary got the cyclops, and has the better proportions. The MK1 dial is only one year production which is the least production time of any Rolex or at least it's one of the least compared to 3 years for SD4k.

[Linuxpenguins]

I would have to disagree. It’s perfect in every regard. Wears like a dream. I love the fact it has no cyclops.

[philhendrix]

Does the SD43 wear bigger or the Explorer 2? I have the explorer 2 and tried on the SD43 at an AD, but given the bracelet not being adjusted I couldn't really tell how it would wear in daily life.

[WatchTimes]