Why are people obsessing over getting the hard to obtain models?

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

Because 5512, 5513, 1680 are so cheap at the moment?


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[Brew]

Are you suggesting all of the social media wrist warriors should spend their money on art instead of watches? I'm ok with that, fyi.

[HappyFish]

The art market is ways easier to manipulate than the Rolex market. A hyped artist of today is maybe forgotten tomorrow! Who is David Salle?!

[RolexJoe]

In my opinion the “hot” models are the ones I’d want in any case. Robust, steel watches with versatile dials (black/white/rhodium/blue). Two tones do nothing for me, yellow and rose gold aren’t my thing. That leaves white gold which is too expensive for many or the professional steel sports watches that everyone wants. It’s a shame how flippers are making it hard for guys who truly enjoy watches.

[delboylee]

Because they're hard to get?! Fashion, media, tastes trend?

The harder they're to get, the increased demand.... economics.....!

[rlx123]

Originally Posted by CEITS

I'd buy a 20/30k piece of art and see it appreciate 10x fold. Point being the effort and time you put into attaining a ROLEX (SS) you can do the same and get 10x better results in a different market such as art.

You can only sell you piece of art for as much as someone is willing to pay for it. Not too many people knows about your “artist”, but the whole world knows about Rolex. The whole world perceives the “value” of Rolex as a well made watch. You show a Rolex to a random person on the street and he instantly recognizes it, show your painting to the same guy and most likely he won’t think it’s worth 230k. Your artist might be well known within a very small circle of art collectors but not to the world. Not the same market.

[AK797]

Rolexes are small fry now, just check out these latest Nautilus prices from the big Euro grey Chronext, many of them are now looking at having trebled in price since 2016 and that includes the gold one. It's then no surprise everyone wants these watches from paupers to kings.

https://www.chronext.co.uk/patek-philippe/nautilus

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

They won't ?

Originally Posted by directioneng

Welcome to my ignore list.

[DLRIDES]

Sheeple

[broham84]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

What? 5 digit subs are going for twice what it was brand new 2 decades ago. GMT II are 3X right now. Where are you getting this notion they will not be valuable from?

[Rashid.bk]

Begin rant:
Meet the elephant in the room....people want to be cool, date the hot chick, drive the fast car and own the hot new Rollie. No one wants to admit they buy the brand but they do. I've been suckered into this world as well, I used to know how many jewels and what type of balance bridge a 3135 used, today I know little about the new 3235 as I'm too involved discussing values, canceled watches not in catalogs, or should people buy xyz. Sad.
The fact that many people now including a large percentage of our members who claim to not care about brand name and public perception indeed do care, a whole lot about wearing and being seen with the latest and hot Rolex.
And these same folks who are in denial also love it when the "value" of their cool watch goes up. Every LVC owner right now is dying for it to be cancelled and every SD43 owner is dying to see this elusive and magical MK1 dial sky rocket and every.....the list goes on.

It took the red Submariners and Sea-Dwellers the better part of 30 years to become appreciated and another 10 years on top of that for it to become amazing.
Well today people can't afford to go and spend $80-150k on a Comex Sea-Dweller but it's so easy to generate artificial "social media & street cred" by dreaming about values on your BLNR or LVC.
When these folks talk in their circles do you believe they say, oh this watch costs about $9k.... they are the first to say and proclaim loud how impossible to get it is and how it's actually worth $15k and in a few more years, just wait and see how much my MK1 will be worth.

When I joined the forum people actually bought watches they liked. LVCs sat in cases- too green, GMT2 LN- too boring, Submariners- too common and when the BLNR arrived it was a breath of fresh air but it had many detractors and could easily be bought in most markets.
Fast forward today, people will walk into an AD and outright buy any Rolex available in the professional line even if they didn't want it.
People looking for an 114060 find a GMT2LN buy that, someone looking for a Submariner finds an Explorer 1, buys that...looking for a SD43 finds a D-Blue buys that...not because they actually now discovered they like it, but mostly just need to brag and FOMO. And let's not forget, on a weekly basis it seems there is a rumor from some social media twit that everyone follows that a certain reference will be cancelled.

There is a spike in demand surely, but there is also a bigger spike in global connectivity and the ability to easily profit from secondary sales on merchandise. Instagram and twitter are basically advertising engines by "influencers"(that's a job in 2019).
But I don't really believe in the shortage nor that there is a huge monstrous spike in demand, the huge spike and huge growth can be attributed to none other than that middle grey layer- secondary sales or grey dealers/markets. Every Rolex watch you could ever want is easily available through one of these sources with the odd real exception like the Blue Skydweller. Why should Rolex increase production, the watches are largely available, they are just bought up by resellers before the average person can buy them, that's why there are dozens available on the sales page and other outlets...your mind will explode shopping watch stores in China, with displays listing 10 BLNRs 12 LVCs and even 5-6 16610 LVs or 16710 GMT2s.

It's the new norm and Rolex with it's AD sales needs to find a solution, although I don't know what that is. Unfortunately this is now a norm and the craze is on for resellers and social media but there is only one thing keeping the flood gates at bay and that is the hundreds and hundreds of people out there not willing to actually pay double for artificially hyped watches.
A 1680 Red Submariner has an official price of $30-50k, a price and valuation built on a solid foundation of time (45 plus years) and scarcity. Yet today people want to value a 16610LV or GMT2 3186 in the same region? Ridiculous.
A BLRO has half to 3/4 of the value as a Daytona Patrizzi dial?
Ludicrous....

Same happens with Yeezy sneakers everyone says are dead...yet sell out in hours and then available for resale at markups everywhere. There are still new in box Yeezys from 4-5 years ago selling online among other sneakers. Greys and resellers which benefit from free advertising from social media are riding the gravy train.

Today I see the beauty in vintage watches which are a much better value and prices still haven't inflated. A nice vintage will start at a considerable but well established $20k while an LVC or BLNR only costs $9k and then you can bandwagon on the speculation.

Today, I will patiently wait for the watch I want. All Rolex watches are beautiful, I've had many and loved everyone but not enough to own them all. My policy is "I" ME personally have to like it, love it in fact before I buy and once I do, that's it, for life, barring some unforeseen family health crisis, I just won't sell. I look forward to the long lasting relationship I can build with my watch.
Did you know Tom Selleck still has and wears the GMT he wore on Magnum PI....that is value and worth.

End rant.

[jrs146]

I like the hard to get watches because they are just like the art you purchase. Your analogy actually answers your own question. Why do you buy art that appreciates opposed to cheap street art with no value? Because it appreciates. If you’re spending 30k on something it really helps knowing it’s going to retain its value or even go up. Same with watches. So it’s a self-perpetuating cycle. The hard to get watches appreciate. So people want them. Then they’re hard to get. Because they’re hard to get they appreciate.


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[TimeToWatch]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Outside of extremely rare rare watches the price of used watches have shown to decrease in value (yup even the pepsi gmt)

The wait is ridiculous, you have to spend at an AD, buying in the secondary market (grey) is at a premium.

If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.

But why ROLEX? Do people here think about this? The amount of time it takes?

I get because we enjoy as a hobby but some here look at it as investment.

Thank you for a glimpse into the future, dear oracle

[returntorolex]

[Dsmith1974]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

Last year I purchased a pre-owned 16610LV and 116710 BLNR from greys. At the time I thought they were pricey but I liked them. I just checked the prices today after reading someone traded their BLNR in for a Daytona.

In the year I’ve had them both watches have risen 40%.

I’m not a flipper but if I were to cash out now then a %40 Annual ROI is pretty awesome and they were way more fun than a stocks and shares ISA or a savings fund.

I don’t like it but you can see why non wis guys are parking money in watches at the moment.

[77T]

Originally Posted by returntorolex

I see what you did there...


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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by AK797

Rolexes are small fry now, just check out these latest Nautilus prices from the big Euro grey Chronext, many of them are now looking at having trebled in price since 2016 and that includes the gold one. It's then no surprise everyone wants these watches from paupers to kings.

https://www.chronext.co.uk/patek-philippe/nautilus

LOL - this is turning into a bigger bubble than bitcoin. HAhahaa

we all know how that ended or is at now. Seriously I cant believe some of the prices - seriously its a watch? WTF am I missing? LMFAO.

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by jrs146

I like the hard to get watches because they are just like the art you purchase. Your analogy actually answers your own question. Why do you buy art that appreciates opposed to cheap street art with no value? Because it appreciates. If you’re spending 30k on something it really helps knowing it’s going to retain its value or even go up. Same with watches. So it’s a self-perpetuating cycle. The hard to get watches appreciate. So people want them. Then they’re hard to get. Because they’re hard to get they appreciate.


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Oh c'mon - Art is unique, these watches are made in the thousands/millions over time.

I stated it before - one of the main reasons I looked into Rolex once marketing tactics got me hooked is that it "should" retain its value over a long enough period.

If there happens to be a price increase, I would welcome it. But pure economically speaking everything that rises too fast will fall down again. We just do not know when and by how much. 40% increase in a 1 year period is just not healthy but then again I have time to wait until they come down. Worse case I buy something else.

Just like I have time to wait for the stock market to come down and give me cheap shares.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

But pure economically speaking everything that rises too fast will fall down again. We just do not know when and by how much. 40% increase in a 1 year period is just not healthy but then again I have time to wait until they come down.

This is 100000% accurate. It WILL eventually come down 40% increase in 1 year? LMFAO - nothing and I mean nothing is sustainable at that growth.

Heck I thought housing was a bubble increasing 50% in 2-3 years.

This is insanity just like Bitcoin was when every single person was hooked on that. How many ppl got burned on that now? Millions of people. LOL

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now.

Is that so ?

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

Oh c'mon - Art is unique, these watches are made in the thousands/millions over time.



I stated it before - one of the main reasons I looked into Rolex once marketing tactics got me hooked is that it "should" retain its value over a long enough period.



If there happens to be a price increase, I would welcome it. But pure economically speaking everything that rises too fast will fall down again. We just do not know when and by how much. 40% increase in a 1 year period is just not healthy but then again I have time to wait until they come down. Worse case I buy something else.



Just like I have time to wait for the stock market to come down and give me cheap shares.

The market speaks for its self. I don’t deny that it feels like a bubble recently but I have no doubt that a handful of stainless sports watches will do just fine long term. Even if they just kept pace with inflation it would appreciate enough to make them worthy for many people to feel more comfortable buying compared to something that depreciates quickly. That’s really my main point.


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[Dsmith1974]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is 100000% accurate. It WILL eventually come down 40% increase in 1 year? LMFAO - nothing and I mean nothing is sustainable at that growth.

Heck I thought housing was a bubble increasing 50% in 2-3 years.

This is insanity just like Bitcoin was when every single person was hooked on that. How many ppl got burned on that now? Millions of people. LOL

I remember reading about bitcoin on slashdot almost ten years ago. Back then you could mine ten or more coins a day just from your PCs screen-saver. A popular meme at the time was that they’ll never be worth the cost of leaving your PC on all day.

Instead of bitcoin I had my spare clock cycles find the next unknown mersenne prime number or help out with the search for extra terrestrial intelligence. With hindsight I could’ve retired early with a Platona if I’d stuck with Bitcoin.

I followed bitcoin with interest when the hype started and all I will say is that bubbles tend to last a lot longer these days, rise a lot higher and settle down rather than collapse/pop.

Bitcoin had serveral spikes as jumped from the hundreds to the thousands. Lasted years while everyone rolled out the tulip and south sea quotes. Settled to a pretty good rate too (4700 euros today).

Sure sure Jonny come latelys came in at ten grand and got burned but there’s many more folk who came in ten bucks. A hundred bucks or even a thousand.

[peterpl]

^ I actually mined bitcoin and even bought dedicated rigs to mine bitcoin before the hype started and it got crazy. I started when BTC was still profitable when you could mine it.

Dont get me wrong I took advantage of the hype whilst it lasted. I sold completely out of BTC and most cryptos when BTC was around the $18,000 mark and yes I rode the few slight ups and downs as well.

What I did know already back then and I told all my fellow guys that it was a bubble and a big one at that. It wasn't until the masses started to play that it went crazy and went up and above $22k AUD then I knew this was hype mania and nothing more.

Sold everything and never bought back in. (Well thats a little lie I still hold some IOTA, XRP, STR, TRX and some others now).

Anyway this is exactly what its looking like to me. The masses are in this watch game now not for the love but purely for the speculation and trying to make a quick buck.

Man I still remember asking these so called BTC investors or any crypto investor what exactly was crypto in their view and how it could be used in real world examples. Some of the answers were mind blowing to say the least not in a good way. I would say more than 75% of ppl couldnt even explain the basic function of a block chain.

We are in this exact predicament now with Rolex/AP and Patek. Rolex moreso as its mass produced and the masses are into this brand the most. Ask most guys buying these watches about the heritage, what model has what movement or what is the difference between a 16610LV and a 116610LV or anything like that and most wont know.

Watch it all fall apart one day. I love watches but I know a bubble when I see one.

[wytrader]

Positive spiral.
Demand creates demand, we all want things that are hard to get.

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by jrs146

The market speaks for its self. I don’t deny that it feels like a bubble recently but I have no doubt that a handful of stainless sports watches will do just fine long term. Even if they just kept pace with inflation it would appreciate enough to make them worthy for many people to feel more comfortable buying compared to something that depreciates quickly. That’s really my main point.


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yes Exactly what I was trying to say also! I'm not calling a bubble or no bubble, just saying that what goes up must come down, one day.

An 8500 USD watch needs 25 years at 3%/Year inflation to actually double in price. If my LN does that I'll be happy, but I would also be happy if it sells for 8500 USD in 25 years also which is why I looked at Rolex, Changes they hold value or slightly increase are higher with a Rolex then with a TAG.

[TswaneNguni]

Have some really nice ones,those which you don't see in the display case at the AD.You know those that do not land and just do a touch down and flies again...

Yet,wearing a DJ41/silver/jubilee/smooth bezel for a month non-stop.Compared it to on my wrist to my ss Sub/Date and the DJ41 presents much better !! It looks alive.The Sub looks dead.

Obsessing over obtaining has much to do with pleasing others,I am afraid.

[seabreeze60]

SS Rolex models are one of the few that have kept value. Still the best investment in the lineup today at MSRP.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by TheDon2000

My angle is...People like the pieces FIRST and the DEMAND for them makes them hard to get. Personally, some of my favorite Rolex's would be DaytonaC's, BLNR's, LVc, and a classic SS Submariner LN...I also like a blue dial Sky-Dweller - Hmm, looks like I just named off some of the most desirable pieces...

Point is, whether these were dime a dozen or impossible to procure, I would still like them. The design and colors of them are just more appealing than the rest of the options for me.

I guess that's the case for a lot of people as DaytonaC's, BLRO's etc. are nearing the impossible side of the scale (At retail, from an AD).

While I’m sure that has some merit, one cannot deny the hype amplifies the general attractiveness of certain pieces exponentially... nobody liked the Daytona when it was launched, that’s why it’s so valuable today, BLNR was very controversial a few years ago, hype started when supply was cut, look at it now, SkyD is a watch with terrible proportions (impressive tech tho), but hype puts it over the top, etc... even Hulk used to get discounted because green doesn’t go with anything... turns out « rare » green seems to match everything...

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

While I’m sure that has some merit, one cannot deny the hype amplifies the general attractiveness of certain pieces exponentially... nobody liked the Daytona when it was launched, that’s why it’s so valuable today, BLNR was very controversial a few years ago, hype started when supply was cut, look at it now, SkyD is a watch with terrible proportions (impressive tech tho), but hype puts it over the top, etc... even Hulk used to get discounted because green doesn’t go with anything... turns out « rare » green seems to match everything...

Dont agree on the SkyD,love the proportions,I have large wrists as well.

[seabreeze60]

Found this Forbes article from January 2013. Looks like the standard of quality hasn’t changed much.