Buying from Grey Market

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by Vipes

I think you have to go grey market for this watch. Maybe wait a couple of months to see if the prices on the secondary market will go down a little. The new BLNR coming into the market may soften the prices of the BLRO.

BLNR just started entering the market this week. havent shown up on greys yet. will be interesting to see how it affects the BLRO indeed.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Dovman

now thats a HELLUVA WATCH. did u buy yours through the grey?

I purchased mine from my AD. They are amazing and we go back along way.

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[Dovman]

Originally Posted by SeaAndSky

I keep reading this but don't believe it. So take this advice with a grain of salt. I know personally two people I work with who liked my GMT and after checking it out decided they wanted one of their own. Both within the past year and within a few months of ordering paid msrp and now own an LN and a BLNR. Personally, I wouldn't support the greed of the grays and would order one from an AD.

people cant even order one from an AD these days unless you have already established a relationship with them. is there an AD you/they know that doesnt play by these rules?

[enjoythemusic]

If that's what you want, buy it. Waiting on an AD is a fools game at times, especially as some ADs ignore anything closely resembling a list or first-come first-served.

AD: The game is rigged.

[SlideRacker]

Back in the early 2000s I tried getting a steel Daytona. So I called every AD within 300 miles and even some out of state ones. Got on a bunch of "waiting lists". Years passed and still no watch. So I threw in the towel and paid $10k to a grey for a watch that MSRPd at the time for $6700. I thought it was crazy. How crazy was it now?

[Tan]

Originally Posted by Dovman

the BLRO is now about 2 times the MSRP. im just wondering if im foolish to get it at these prices.

Think of it this way, if you had to buy more than that amount (2x MSRP) in jewelry or watches you don't want, then you are justified in purchasing it at grey prices. I would assume the case is likely that you would have to spend more since the Daytona is so sought after. If this were a Submariner, I would tell you to take a different approach.

[bp1000]

Anything more than 10% over RRP is a bit of a waste.

I don't really sacrifice my own cash to chase a popular watch unless its very special to me, but that hasn't happened yet.

Just be patient and get yourself on a list. The BLNR will land within 12 months.

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by Tan

Think of it this way, if you had to buy more than that amount (2x MSRP) in jewelry or watches you don't want, then you are justified in purchasing it at grey prices. I would assume the case is likely that you would have to spend more since the Daytona is so sought after. If this were a Submariner, I would tell you to take a different approach.

what approach would u go with the submariner?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Welcome to the forum

If you can afford the gray price I'd do it. You can't put a price on happiness and besides, it's a life piece so in the end, amortized over the years, its insignificant.

It's a helluva watch

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Looks very dapper there, hard to resist if you can afford to go grey.

[johnjm]

Always at MSRP crew checking in. Maybe I just charm the ADs

BLRO expected from my AD in a few months.




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[Dovman]

Originally Posted by bp1000

Anything more than 10% over RRP is a bit of a waste.

I don't really sacrifice my own cash to chase a popular watch unless its very special to me, but that hasn't happened yet.

Just be patient and get yourself on a list. The BLNR will land within 12 months.

which AD do u know allows names to be on a list that is real in the UK?

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Always at MSRP crew checking in. Maybe I just charm the ADs

BLRO expected from my AD in a few months.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

hahaha. how is your history with this AD?

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Dovman

hahaha. how is your history with this AD?

Have only bought a BLNR, 58 and Daytona from them.


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[Chadridv]

no one has a crystal ball, but all I can do is tell you my experiences. I've gotten lucky buying hard to get watches from ADs and I've pulled the trigger paying premiums with gray dealers. I've never once regretted either avenue (i only have regrets selling lol).

Anyhow, Every "hard to get" watch i've ever bought from a grey dealer, even with the premium) has continued to increase in value. I'm not saying that will happen to you, but if you study the market value you will be able to identify the risk of value drop. At the end of the day, if you can get a decent deal on the secondary market, I think your potential loss will be minimal.

But most importantly, if this watch will be a true life long keeper. 50 years from now you won't even remember that you paid a premium. It will be a drop in the bucket compared to the lifetime of memories and enjoyment you've received from the watch, not to mention the value will almost definitely hold and likely appreciate!

Life is short, my vote is to make a move now!

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Have only bought a BLNR, 58 and Daytona from them.


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you have a fine taste in watches sir

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

no one has a crystal ball, but all I can do is tell you my experiences. I've gotten lucky buying hard to get watches from ADs and I've pulled the trigger paying premiums with gray dealers. I've never once regretted either avenue (i only have regrets selling lol).

Anyhow, Every "hard to get" watch i've ever bought from a grey dealer, even with the premium) has continued to increase in value. I'm not saying that will happen to you, but if you study the market value you will be able to identify the risk of value drop. At the end of the day, if you can get a decent deal on the secondary market, I think your potential loss will be minimal.

But most importantly, if this watch will be a true life long keeper. 50 years from now you won't even remember that you paid a premium. It will be a drop in the bucket compared to the lifetime of memories and enjoyment you've received from the watch, not to mention the value will almost definitely hold and likely appreciate!

Life is short, my vote is to make a move now!

what you said sums up most of the sentiments on this threat thus far. what do u feel is a fair value for the BLRO on grey now?

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by Tan

The whole "I don't want to pay MSRP but I want a relationship with my AD" is kinda BS. You'll end up paying WAY more to the AD in pieces you potentially don't want. If you're just looking for the BLRO, buy it on the grey and save yourself some cash, even though you are paying over MSRP.

So pay twice MSRP and get 1 watch. Next hot peace, pay twice MSRP again. And if you want to flip them after a few years for the next hot thing take a loss. Great tactics. Makes me wonder how some people here actually made the money to buy these watches in the first place

or.

Buy one watch for yourself, one for your wife and get the BLRO and any fancy watch after that all at MSRP.

I'd go the second route instead of making other people rich off my own money,

About 99% of the people who go grey just make excuses along the way because they are biased. I would say if you have the cash to pay double MSRP you were better off buying at the AD and have a relationship going forward instead of setting yourself up in such a way that you will be stuck buying grey forever.

If you care about bragging rights, fine do it. Go tell everyone you were able to buy the BLRO at double MSRP but pretty sure 99% don't mention the fact they had to pay 100% mark-up caus they are ashamed but everyone thinks they are "connected" as they got a hold of the the BLRO .. that is if people even notice. The only connection there is .. is their WiFI connection.

All the people on this Forum that have an AD relationship rock the new BLNR and the new BLRO and the new CHNR while all them grey buyers are stuck with one BLRO at double marck-up and maybe a anothe peace also at double MSRP but still proudly team grey .. only because they paid 16K for a stupid watch that tells time. I mean it would be stupid to pay 16K and then advise others not to do it ..

You want a watch, fine, but what's wrong with waiting? You are all way too used to get whatever you want whenever you want even for ridiculous prices but this too shall pass the next recession hits your wallet. You want to celebrate a milestone, fine, go to an AD and wait, you will enjoy it twice as much. Part of the game is waiting.

Amazon next day delivery brainwashed all of you if you ask me. That and some people here seriously lost any connection with what Money is worth, I mean 16K for a SS watch .. c'monnnnnn - but hell they are quick to come on TRF and brag "incoming".

[bp1000]

Originally Posted by Dovman

which AD do u know allows names to be on a list that is real in the UK?

Michael Spires put most stock in the window, apart from Daytonas and probably the pepsi.

If you are local you have a good chance of getting what you need.

There are several independents that are very good in the UK and look after local customers. So you will skip all the phone callers who add themselves onto the list.

Sadly for you, being in singapore is a disadvantage in that regard. But for me, confident i would get a BLNR within a year. Maybe even a BLRO. Despite being late to the party.

[Tan]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

So pay twice MSRP and get 1 watch. Next hot peace, pay twice MSRP again. And if you want to flip them after a few years for the next hot thing take a loss. Great tactics. Makes me wonder how some people here actually made the money to buy these watches in the first place

I mean people said that about the Nautilus at $50k and now its trading above 60k, so not sure if your reasoning is sound on that people would take a loss.

[Tan]

Originally Posted by Dovman

what approach would u go with the submariner?

It's a steel sports Rolex that they may tell you you need to have a relationship at the AD, but there are many reports of going to certain ADs and dropping a deposit on them and they show up a few days or weeks later and the buyer can get them at MSRP. Scarcity is much lower on them than the Daytona.

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by bp1000

Michael Spires put most stock in the window, apart from Daytonas and probably the pepsi.

If you are local you have a good chance of getting what you need.

There are several independents that are very good in the UK and look after local customers. So you will skip all the phone callers who add themselves onto the list.

Sadly for you, being in singapore is a disadvantage in that regard. But for me, confident i would get a BLNR within a year. Maybe even a BLRO. Despite being late to the party.

i visit London once a month for my work. might check it out. not a local though.

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

So pay twice MSRP and get 1 watch. Next hot peace, pay twice MSRP again. And if you want to flip them after a few years for the next hot thing take a loss. Great tactics. Makes me wonder how some people here actually made the money to buy these watches in the first place

or.

Buy one watch for yourself, one for your wife and get the BLRO and any fancy watch after that all at MSRP.

I'd go the second route instead of making other people rich off my own money,

About 99% of the people who go grey just make excuses along the way because they are biased. I would say if you have the cash to pay double MSRP you were better off buying at the AD and have a relationship going forward instead of setting yourself up in such a way that you will be stuck buying grey forever.

If you care about bragging rights, fine do it. Go tell everyone you were able to buy the BLRO at double MSRP but pretty sure 99% don't mention the fact they had to pay 100% mark-up caus they are ashamed but everyone thinks they are "connected" as they got a hold of the the BLRO .. that is if people even notice. The only connection there is .. is their WiFI connection.

All the people on this Forum that have an AD relationship rock the new BLNR and the new BLRO and the new CHNR while all them grey buyers are stuck with one BLRO at double marck-up and maybe a anothe peace also at double MSRP but still proudly team grey .. only because they paid 16K for a stupid watch that tells time. I mean it would be stupid to pay 16K and then advise others not to do it ..

You want a watch, fine, but what's wrong with waiting? You are all way too used to get whatever you want whenever you want even for ridiculous prices but this too shall pass the next recession hits your wallet. You want to celebrate a milestone, fine, go to an AD and wait, you will enjoy it twice as much. Part of the game is waiting.

Amazon next day delivery brainwashed all of you if you ask me. That and some people here seriously lost any connection with what Money is worth, I mean 16K for a SS watch .. c'monnnnnn - but hell they are quick to come on TRF and brag "incoming".

quite a contrarian point of view although some of what you say makes sense. i would say that i wouldnt mind waiting even 3 years or more for the watch. problem is i cant get myself on any waitlist for this watch. maybe im not looking hard enough, but the time im spending on visiting stores all around the world is getting tiring.

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by Tan

I mean people said that about the Nautilus at $50k and now its trading above 60k, so not sure if your reasoning is sound on that people would take a loss.

You are comparing a Patek with a SS Rolex?

Total Nautilus production is 25% of total Patek Philippe production which is like 12.000 pc going with a previous thread here at TRF while the BLRO will be in the hundred thousand. A good indicator is the 5 digit Pepsi .. it only went up because of the BLRO crazy but before that, it was barely re-selling as MSRP.

Also the Patek is a class higher then Rolex, different kind of people have the cash to buy a Patek while anyone with a Credit Card can buy a Rolex on instalments.

Let's stick with facts for a second and compare the 5 digit Pepsi. The stainless steel Rolex GMT-Master II 16710 was introduced in 1998 and was in production until 2008. In 2004, the 16710 was priced at $4,250.



This means that if you had picked up the Pepsi in 2004 at double MSRP you were not break even in over 14 years time and this is WITH the current craziness on the Pepsi models and the price increase can't continue the current trajectory we all know that.

As for the AP the price only went up due to the current craziness (I took the 5990 as a reference)

Most prob people starting to find Rolex to common and not available switching to AP. It's a whole diff league. Let's stick with apples to apples.

A rising tide lifts all ships but the fat lady won't keep singing.

[Tan]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

You are comparing a Patek with a SS Rolex?

Total Nautilus production is 25% of total Patek Philippe production which is like 12.000 pc going with a previous thread here at TRF while the BLRO will be in the hundred thousand. A good indicator is the 5 digit Pepsi .. it only went up because of the BLRO crazy but before that, it was barely re-selling as MSRP.

Also the Patek is a class higher then Rolex, different kind of people have the cash to buy a Patek while anyone with a Credit Card can buy a Rolex on instalments.

Let's stick with facts for a second and compare the 5 digit Pepsi. The stainless steel Rolex GMT-Master II 16710 was introduced in 1998 and was in production until 2008. In 2004, the 16710 was priced at $4,250.



This means that if you had picked up the Pepsi in 2004 at double MSRP you were not break even in over 14 years time and this is WITH the current craziness on the Pepsi models and the price increase can't continue the current trajectory we all know that.

As for the AP the price only went up due to the current craziness (I took the 5990 as a reference)

Most prob people starting to find Rolex to common and not available switching to AP. It's a whole diff league. Let's stick with apples to apples.

A rising tide lifts all ships but the fat lady won't keep singing.

Here's the issue with your argument, you are extrapolating the number of years that we were not in today's Rolex sports shortage of the Pepsi vs a short period that we are currently in where there is a shortage and you've seen 16170 the value increase dramatically in those years. Also, I don't think its far fetched to compare watches like Daytona to the Nautilus, they are probably the two most scarce watches to find out there these days. I believe you are also ignoring the number of watches you would need to purchase at retail that would lose value before you could even attain say a Pepsi or a Daytona, so you can't necessarily say that you would be ahead in the end.

[JNWatches]

I'd say if you truly want it now and are willing to pay the ask, then go buy it from wherever you can get it.....now. I've never regretted any of my Rolex purchases.

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

So pay twice MSRP and get 1 watch. Next hot peace, pay twice MSRP again. And if you want to flip them after a few years for the next hot thing take a loss. Great tactics. Makes me wonder how some people here actually made the money to buy these watches in the first place

or.

Buy one watch for yourself, one for your wife and get the BLRO and any fancy watch after that all at MSRP.

I'd go the second route instead of making other people rich off my own money,

About 99% of the people who go grey just make excuses along the way because they are biased. I would say if you have the cash to pay double MSRP you were better off buying at the AD and have a relationship going forward instead of setting yourself up in such a way that you will be stuck buying grey forever.

If you care about bragging rights, fine do it. Go tell everyone you were able to buy the BLRO at double MSRP but pretty sure 99% don't mention the fact they had to pay 100% mark-up caus they are ashamed but everyone thinks they are "connected" as they got a hold of the the BLRO .. that is if people even notice. The only connection there is .. is their WiFI connection.

All the people on this Forum that have an AD relationship rock the new BLNR and the new BLRO and the new CHNR while all them grey buyers are stuck with one BLRO at double marck-up and maybe a anothe peace also at double MSRP but still proudly team grey .. only because they paid 16K for a stupid watch that tells time. I mean it would be stupid to pay 16K and then advise others not to do it ..

You want a watch, fine, but what's wrong with waiting? You are all way too used to get whatever you want whenever you want even for ridiculous prices but this too shall pass the next recession hits your wallet. You want to celebrate a milestone, fine, go to an AD and wait, you will enjoy it twice as much. Part of the game is waiting.

Amazon next day delivery brainwashed all of you if you ask me. That and some people here seriously lost any connection with what Money is worth, I mean 16K for a SS watch .. c'monnnnnn - but hell they are quick to come on TRF and brag "incoming".

You make valid points, sir

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by Tan

Here's the issue with your argument, you are extrapolating the number of years that we were not in today's Rolex sports shortage of the Pepsi vs a short period that we are currently in where there is a shortage and you've seen 16170 the value increase dramatically in those years. Also, I don't think its far fetched to compare the Daytona to the Nautilus, they are probably the two most scarce watches to find out there these days. The topic of this thread is the Daytona, and his strategy to get a Daytona, not a Pepsi. I believe you are also ignoring the number of watches you would need to purchase at retail that would lose value before you could even attain a Daytona, so you can't necessarily say that you would be ahead in the end.

i have been looking for a BLRO for the longest time and i have given up.

How do you mean he is looking for a Daytona? He is looking for the BLRO. I am not extrapolating anything, on the contrary, I am pointing out the fact these are exceptional times and not a reference at all and you are actually agreeing with me as per that last comment? :)

What I am trying to say is that due to the fact that these are exceptional times you can not rely on the price increases going forward on the SS models, it will revert to mean one day. That's one of the first things you learn at school. Over a long enough period of time, everything goes back to mean due to how the market is shaped so chances of losing money is pretty high.

In 5 years times, there will be a second kid to celebrate or another promotion or a bigger house and he will either want to flip it (and lose money) or buy another watch at Grey market and lose money.

As to the number of watches you need to buy - they aren't that many. As said if you buy 2 or 3 at the same AD and you treat them with respect (ie don't go int here waving your purchase history around to demand a watch) you are def getting the watch. I prefer buying my wife a watch and wait than spend 100% more at a grey just to get myself a BLRO.

People are buying the CHNR grey at mark-up while they can get it at the AD within 3 months. People are just lazy and they prefer to click click click online.

[jbreeden]

Originally Posted by erickucla

Do not buy from the Grey Market. Let them go out of business so we can all get watches from ADs for once!

Going to have to disagree on this one on a few points.
If watches could only be acquired through an AD, the folks paying 16k for a 9k watch would still get them first. And at the rate they are going out it would still take forever. And as we have heard ADs would likely require a purchase history.
If Greys went out of business, our resources to sale and trade when we got bored of a watch would be very limited.
For the 10% of watches that they are selling for over msrp 90% of their inventory is giving great value options to others.
If you are happy with msrp pricing, it would only take a few purchases to break even through a grey. you pay 6k over msrp on the gmt, you save 1k on an op, you save 2k on a datejust, and 3k or more on a precious metal watch or complicated watch. Now you are actually saving money when considering tax.
However i do agree that it sucks to the person who only wants one watch and they want it to be a hot sports model. But i am willing to bet it would suck worse if you could only get it through an AD.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Dovman

you have a fine taste in watches sir

Thanks dude, I wish my wife felt the same way

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[Dovman]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

How do you mean he is looking for a Daytona? He is looking for the BLRO. I am not extrapolating anything, on the contrary, I am pointing out the fact these are exceptional times and not a reference at all and you are actually agreeing with me as per that last comment? :)

What I am trying to say is that due to the fact that these are exceptional times you can not rely on the price increases going forward on the SS models, it will revert to mean one day. That's one of the first things you learn at school. Over a long enough period of time, everything goes back to mean due to how the market is shaped so chances of losing money is pretty high.

In 5 years times, there will be a second kid to celebrate or another promotion or a bigger house and he will either want to flip it (and lose money) or buy another watch at Grey market and lose money.

As to the number of watches you need to buy - they aren't that many. As said if you buy 2 or 3 at the same AD and you treat them with respect (ie don't go int here waving your purchase history around to demand a watch) you are def getting the watch. I prefer buying my wife a watch and wait than spend 100% more at a grey just to get myself a BLRO.

People are buying the CHNR grey at mark-up while they can get it at the AD within 3 months. People are just lazy and they prefer to click click click online.

i dont think buying just a watch would get it going with the ADs though. i purchased a DJ for my wife awhile ago and i aint getting close to getting on a waitlist for any of the SS models.

Spoke to another local watch collector and he estimates that to get on the waitlist, you need to spend near 50000USD for a start within 2-3 years with the AD.

remember, just to get on a waitlist.