Prices are not dropping!

[sillo]

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[Kliminator]

Originally Posted by sillo38

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Didn't know there was a watchrecon app!

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by sillo38

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What app is this?


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[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

What app is this?


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Watchrecon

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

What app is this?

As a few others have said it's watch recon.

[Anton911]

The people who think and pray that the prices are dropping of the sought after models ie blnr,Lv Daytona etc are the people who do not own these pieces and are continually looking for an excuse or slight change in one example advertised to suddenly jump to conclusions that the prices are dropping.
It’s wishful thinking and they are definitely not so get used to the new normal and stop belly aching about prices dropping.
If you want that watch and can’t get it from your AD,just pay grey prices,as those prices are here to stay and will probably increase further.

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The people who think and pray that the prices are dropping of the sought after models ie blnr,Lv Daytona etc are the people who do not own these pieces and are continually looking for an excuse or slight change in one example advertised to suddenly jump to conclusions that the prices are dropping.

Not that I have a dog in this fight at all, but the exact opposite can be said too. People who are hoping and praying they keep going up are the ones that own them and want to make money.

Either way I don't think the market is as volatile right now as some of these threads make it out to be. If you look at a small enough period of time there will be fluctuations. Looking at a more macro scale all I've seen is up.

And does it really matter if a watch goes from 50% over MSRP to 30% over. I'd still consider 30% over MSRP a pretty strong market.

[Furrygoat]

This seems like the exact type of thread a desperate price dropper would start

[Likestheshiny]

I don't mind the discussion and speculation, but it annoys me when folks come in and make sweeping claims based on weak, incomplete evidence. It reeks of "I want people to notice me," and feels like clickbait.

[pkincy]

Were those out the door auction prices or hammer prices. Remember out the door prices are generallly 10% higher. Also it is no secret why the auction houses serve free liquor at their events.

[DTap]

Great post. This bear will interpret the request for a separate section on pricing as the equivalent of my barber talking about the stock market. If the discussion is becoming that rampant, it’s turning a corner and the end is near,

[dayman]

cool story bro...

[exador]

The pre-owned BLRO sold for $25k plus buyers premium of 25% meaning a final price of $31,250.

A bog standard 16710 sold for $30k including premium.

These auctions have long been known to be a source of money laundering

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...less?locale=en

[Jarlaxle]

Originally Posted by exador

These auctions have long been known to be a source of money laundering

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...less?locale=en

Now THAT actually makes sense. Otherwise why would someone pay those prices when, as the member above me just pointed out, you can buy from DavidSW, a very well known and trustworthy dealer, and have it shipped to you overnight for thousands less?

And FWIW it seems like even DavidSW's prices are down just a bit from their highs, at least on the GMT's which is what I am focused on.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Jarlaxle

Now THAT actually makes sense. Otherwise why would someone pay those prices when, as the member above me just pointed out, you can buy from DavidSW, a very well known and trustworthy dealer, and have it shipped to you overnight for thousands less?

And FWIW it seems like even DavidSW's prices are down just a bit from their highs, at least on the GMT's which is what I am focused on.

Would love to see his sales data. I bet the answer is all there. How many he’s sellin and at what price.... also props to DSW, I never bought from him, but hat a couple interactions. He was always cool and it’s easy to forget he was selling many models below msrp just two years ago.

[Chewbacca]

Nah.

These pricing and valuation question threads engage people to participate, register and quite frankly, come back... they're harmless.

Now, those WO grandpas Rolex real v. f___ and the caustic Never Ending Story and Word Assoc. threads... those are scary!

[TimeToWatch]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

I don't disagree about the fools! Someone mentioned money laundering as a reason for these auction prices. Sounds like as good an explanation as any other that I've heard.

Wonder if the greys see these stupid prices and say hey I need to raise my prices?

[rominvicta]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

Mark somewhere or somehow your words. You have 50% chance to claim you knew it!

[Jona]

I agree with you Steven.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by peterpl

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

lol!!!

[SN13]

Listen, we get it, you want to Justify spending 2x MSRP on whatever Rolex you just bought.

You want to convince others to do the same so that you don't feel so bad about being "The only one" to make the stupid decision....

The reality is, there will always be more supply than demand for items like (Currently Produced) Rolex Watches...

The demand of actual USERS vs the Supply at Inflated prices, has reached a tipping point.

There are HUNDREDS of over-priced Rolex watches on Chrono24 etc etc. that are not selling. Why? Because those with money enough to not care about the price, already have theirs. Those with enough money but also with enough sense to not play the GREY games, are in a holding pattern.

Maybe they will buy that Hulk back at 10k instead of 14k.... some won't until it hits MSRP again. Some won't until they can get it slightly discounted used again.

Without Resellers, gobbling up inventory, the prices would be much more stable.

You see cycles like this through many many items over the years.

Houses, Vintage Cars, Vintage Watches, Modern Watches, Iphones, Baseball Cards, Beanie Babies, etc etc.

There is always the ramp up, the "Oh, I need that"... the "It's only a few bucks more than it used to be" justifications... until it's just stupid.


488 results for 116610LV
5 Results for 116610LV under $13k.
381 results for OVER $15k....
97 for OVER $17k...
22 over $19k....

There is $6 THOUSAND separating the items for sale...

If they were worth $14k or $17k, the ones under 13k would be GOBBLED up for relisting at 14,15,17+ . . . why aren't the resellers doing this?

If you have almost 500 sales, and only 5 are under 13k and they STILL aren't sold, the perceived value is even further under 13k than shown.

The other 480+ listings are just wishing.




Edit:
Lowest Two 116500LN on Chrono24 today - $21.8k and $21.9k (US based)
$22k-$25k - 118 Listings. (Including White)
$25k-$27.5k - 196 listings.
$27.5k-$30k - 58 listings.

Again. If they are worth $27k, why not buy up all 120 listings under 25k and relist at 27k? No-Brainer right?

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by SN13

Listen, we get it, you want to Justify spending 2x MSRP on whatever Rolex you just bought.

You want to convince others to do the same so that you don't feel so bad about being "The only one" to make the stupid decision....

The reality is, there will always be more supply than demand for items like (Currently Produced) Rolex Watches...

The demand of actual USERS vs the Supply at Inflated prices, has reached a tipping point.

There are HUNDREDS of over-priced Rolex watches on Chrono24 etc etc. that are not selling. Why? Because those with money enough to not care about the price, already have theirs. Those with enough money but also with enough sense to not play the GREY games, are in a holding pattern.

Maybe they will buy that Hulk back at 10k instead of 14k.... some won't until it hits MSRP again. Some won't until they can get it slightly discounted used again.

Without Resellers, gobbling up inventory, the prices would be much more stable.

You see cycles like this through many many items over the years.

Houses, Vintage Cars, Vintage Watches, Modern Watches, Iphones, Baseball Cards, Beanie Babies, etc etc.

There is always the ramp up, the "Oh, I need that"... the "It's only a few bucks more than it used to be" justifications... until it's just stupid.


488 results for 116610LV
5 Results for 116610LV under $13k.
381 results for OVER $15k....
97 for OVER $17k...
22 over $19k....

There is $6 THOUSAND separating the items for sale...

If they were worth $14k or $17k, the ones under 13k would be GOBBLED up for relisting at 14,15,17+ . . . why aren't the resellers doing this?

If you have almost 500 sales, and only 5 are under 13k and they STILL aren't sold, the perceived value is even further under 13k than shown.

The other 480+ listings are just wishing.




Edit:
Lowest Two 116500LN on Chrono24 today - $21.8k and $21.9k (US based)
$22k-$25k - 118 Listings. (Including White)
$25k-$27.5k - 196 listings.
$27.5k-$30k - 58 listings.

Again. If they are worth $27k, why not buy up all 120 listings under 25k and relist at 27k? No-Brainer right?

Thank you. I al of the belief that most posters that:

A. Spend time on this topic
B. Start threads ripping on references they do not like (all of the “ I hate Ak, Milgauss, YM” threads”

Are trying to justify making a purchase they do not feel that great about to grab a “hot” reference for FOMO




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[scubadds]

I would think a "market watch" subforum would make sense...but sometimes posts that intend to have another subject will stray into that secondary gray market price territory.

...at least that is what I see on other subject matter forums that I am on....
You tend to get the "don't mention that here" or "move the thread"
which can be a drag too

[GB-man]

Ignore auctions they are not indicative of true market price on low cost modern pieces.

Prices are down from a month ago but not so much from 6 months ago.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Ignore auctions they are not indicative of true market price on low cost modern pieces.

And likewise many, if not most, of those listed on Chrono24. There are so many resellers looking for someone to overpay on a watch they don't even have in stock. If they get lucky and snag a sale they then source at a lower cost and pocket the spread.

I understand the desire for prices to drop and I'm not advocating against. But it appears there are more than a few hoping for this inevitable drop that aren't really seeing the true market picture. Supply is nowhere near demand and a lot of people are willing to pay a significant premium. Prices won't take any appreciable hits until the economy and markets falter.

[tenerific]

FWIW, I haggle with dealers all the time and a surprising number are unwilling to offer serious discounts (we're talking vintage mostly for the record). And I have yet to encounter any dealer willing to dip below their cost basis.

I do consider vintage affected by the grey market since, well, if you want a steel rolex where are you going to get one these days?

But, point is, sky is not falling yet. When we see liquidation at cost or below there will be issues. Even then, I don't think Rolex MSRP will move downwards absent metorite strike or something a la 1917 so that should provide a floor

[LarsFS]

The market is whatever the market is, and to some people it's ludicrous to pay >1.0x MSRP while other people, for whatever reason, consider it a good use of capital. It's just another market.

Instead of posting (bullish) auction results or (bearish) TRF bump observations, perhaps you could either 1) build your own spider, or 2) take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

[dori]

Originally Posted by LarsFS

The market is whatever the market is, and to some people it's ludicrous to pay >1.0x MSRP while other people, for whatever reason, consider it a good use of capital. It's just another market.

Instead of posting (bullish) auction results or (bearish) TRF bump observations, perhaps you could either 1) build your own spider, or 2) take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

Is this site considered reliable?


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