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Old 1 January 2020, 01:48 PM   #31
Partagas
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Looking at an Omega Planet Ocean. I'm perfectly fine with that, too. I'm content with the Rolex watches I already bought before all this madness!

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Old 1 January 2020, 02:03 PM   #32
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A couple of days ago i saw a ss ym2 in our local AD. Its in the display. So once in awhile you get to see them.

I dont like it thus i left it alone. It was selling for SRP.

A week before that a two tone sub was sold at the same AD for srp too. Though this is not a pure ss model, its about 70% SS :)
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Old 1 January 2020, 02:27 PM   #33
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Isn't it telling that Rolex is having AD's update their displays with slots for fewer watches?
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Old 1 January 2020, 02:34 PM   #34
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what i dont get is can't they move some production away from those pesky DJ's that are slower moving and produce a few more SS watches. i get it that *some* SS watches are always going to be rare (like the Birkin). But ALL SS watches? C'mon.

heck, even hike the prices of the SS watches to match "market prices" - all i want is to buy one "officially" from a dealer and reduce the risk of getting scammed
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Old 1 January 2020, 02:41 PM   #35
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It’s their new business model under the stewardship of Mr. Dufour. It will likely remain that way considering it’s success.
I love it how this guy handles shortages..
I also love Rolex price increases ...second hand Rolex dealers are laughing 😆
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Old 1 January 2020, 02:44 PM   #36
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As little SS that may be in the cases, the ADs are making more money than ever through bundles, TT and PM pieces.
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Old 1 January 2020, 03:14 PM   #37
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what i dont get is can't they move some production away from those pesky DJ's that are slower moving and produce a few more SS watches. i get it that *some* SS watches are always going to be rare (like the Birkin). But ALL SS watches? C'mon.

heck, even hike the prices of the SS watches to match "market prices" - all i want is to buy one "officially" from a dealer and reduce the risk of getting scammed
The fact there is scarcity, whether perceived or actual, keeps resale values firm. This in turn drives demand—much easier to get over the mental hump of dropping $10 or $15k on a watch when you know if SHTF you can unload it/convert back to cash quickly, easily, and at little if any loss, or in some cases a profit.

The supply issue is a delicate one IMO...too much supply and resale softens which cuts not only flipper demand (good riddance) but demand amongst people on the fence....big drop in demand coupled with the already increased supply is a recipe for disaster and something I imagine Rolex wants to avoid.

Only can speak for myself, but I would be much more hesitant to purchase a $10k watch knowing it immediately loses 50% of its value or more on day 2.
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Old 1 January 2020, 07:31 PM   #38
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Local AD told me they've been getting more than 10 SS sport each month & the batgirl & pepsi always comes. They do have them in their safe but the condition remain that u spend $70k in the store before you get to buy batman / pepsi / hulk / daytona ss. Skydwellers r rarer. $40k and u get to pick rootbeer / whatever sports model you'd like non-ss.

I did my maths and it's still better to buy through resellers, saves you the time & effort. But if you have much deeper pocket than me, might as well pick other types and the AD will definitely have your grail (eg. buying a datograph / lady datejust / TT DJ41). They still have quite support for resale value.
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Old 2 January 2020, 04:41 AM   #39
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Over the past 2 years I’ve been to boutiques in New York, Paris, Bermuda, Mexico, Charleston, Boston, etc. All display cases are literally half empty with only Datejusts and Cellini’s. Nothing new to any WIS, but just thought I’d vent. It is so bizarre being used to seeing models so readily available in past years! Is this simply the way it’s going to be?? It’s embarrassing. Every store literally sucks to visit.
I do not believe it will happen in the near future. I think the only time it will Happen would be a major financial disaster many of us would not like. Other than that I think the SS market stays strong for the foreseeable future. But what do I know I’m
Just a construction business owner haha
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Old 2 January 2020, 04:46 AM   #40
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Over the past 2 years I’ve been to boutiques in New York, Paris, Bermuda, Mexico, Charleston, Boston, etc. All display cases are literally half empty with only Datejusts and Cellini’s. Nothing new to any WIS, but just thought I’d vent. It is so bizarre being used to seeing models so readily available in past years! Is this simply the way it’s going to be?? It’s embarrassing. Every store literally sucks to visit.
Yet evidently you don’t stop visiting these AD’s!

That’s why it’s harder to get them. You’re just like many others, buying in to the Rolex business model. That’s not wrong by the way, but it’s a factor.

Aside from that, many AD’s do stock them, but most of those stores will only sell to those who spend lots, and lots.
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Old 2 January 2020, 04:57 AM   #41
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Some of you are suggesting it will change when there either is less demand or more supply or both. Were you like economics majors or something?

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Old 2 January 2020, 05:51 AM   #42
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Yet evidently you don’t stop visiting these AD’s!



That’s why it’s harder to get them. You’re just like many others, buying in to the Rolex business model. That’s not wrong by the way, but it’s a factor.



Aside from that, many AD’s do stock them, but most of those stores will only sell to those who spend lots, and lots.


I think ADs are not stocking watches in their safes but rather are keeping one of each hot model in reserve for the Vvip who walks in and needs a watch. Very similar to a restaurant holding one or two tables open for the unexpected vvip/celebrity who comes in unexpectedly and wants a table.

ADs are in the business of selling not stocking watches.

Also I think Rolex knows exactly what’s going on with greys and whose doing it. It’s very simple actually. SS steel sport models are sold the instant an AD opens the box of the latest shipment barring the few pieces they need in reserve. Rolex knows exactly when a watch is sold and registered.

So if they see a steady stream of watches with a month or two delay in registration its fairly clear watches are going out the back door.

Back door selling to greys has been going on for a longtime. It’s an issue now cause of the imbalance. More grey supply then retail supply.
Grey market has always been a necessary part of the food chain. It cannot and will not be eliminated. It maybe rebalanced but only to the extent Rolex wants it to be. 2020 should be interesting.


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Old 2 January 2020, 06:22 AM   #43
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Yet evidently you don’t stop visiting these AD’s!

That’s why it’s harder to get them. You’re just like many others, buying in to the Rolex business model. That’s not wrong by the way, but it’s a factor.

Aside from that, many AD’s do stock them, but most of those stores will only sell to those who spend lots, and lots.
yeah I know. For local ADs I just stop in when I get a call. Otherwise it’s boring to visit. I’m mainly referring to when I travel. Always liked to stop into shops but now it’s plain pathetic. It’s not that I’m buying into anything. Simply put, as a watch lover it’s nice to pop into a boutique when passing by and not see a store that looks like it was literally robbed. Half empty cases with all the worst models. Yes Rolex is making record profits. Good for them. Their stores still suck now.
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Old 2 January 2020, 06:29 AM   #44
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I think ADs are not stocking watches in their safes but rather are keeping one of each hot model in reserve for the Vvip who walks in and needs a watch. Very similar to a restaurant holding one or two tables open for the unexpected vvip/celebrity who comes in unexpectedly and wants a table.

ADs are in the business of selling not stocking watches.

Also I think Rolex knows exactly what’s going on with greys and whose doing it. It’s very simple actually. SS steel sport models are sold the instant an AD opens the box of the latest shipment barring the few pieces they need in reserve. Rolex knows exactly when a watch is sold and registered.

So if they see a steady stream of watches with a month or two delay in registration its fairly clear watches are going out the back door.

Back door selling to greys has been going on for a longtime. It’s an issue now cause of the imbalance. More grey supply then retail supply.
Grey market has always been a necessary part of the food chain. It cannot and will not be eliminated. It maybe rebalanced but only to the extent Rolex wants it to be. 2020 should be interesting.


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Yep what I mean when I say stock, is have access to them for the right customer.

I’m not referring to long-term holding in their safe, I mean having them whilst they liaise with the right sort of customer.
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Old 2 January 2020, 07:09 AM   #45
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The owner of my AD is ONLY selling to local residents and trying his level best to ensure they’re going to be worn by those he’s selling to. Really the only reason he doesn’t put the popular stuff in the case is because he feels like at that point the piece is “up for grabs” to whomever walks in takes out the chance to screen buyers from flippers.
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Old 2 January 2020, 07:31 AM   #46
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I think ADs are not stocking watches in their safes but rather are keeping one of each hot model in reserve for the Vvip who walks in and needs a watch. Very similar to a restaurant holding one or two tables open for the unexpected vvip/celebrity who comes in unexpectedly and wants a table.

ADs are in the business of selling not stocking watches.

Also I think Rolex knows exactly what’s going on with greys and whose doing it. It’s very simple actually. SS steel sport models are sold the instant an AD opens the box of the latest shipment barring the few pieces they need in reserve. Rolex knows exactly when a watch is sold and registered.

So if they see a steady stream of watches with a month or two delay in registration its fairly clear watches are going out the back door.

Back door selling to greys has been going on for a longtime. It’s an issue now cause of the imbalance. More grey supply then retail supply.
Grey market has always been a necessary part of the food chain. It cannot and will not be eliminated. It maybe rebalanced but only to the extent Rolex wants it to be. 2020 should be interesting.


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This is a quality post and one that I agree with. Not sure about the greys being a necessary part of the food chain though.

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Old 2 January 2020, 07:37 AM   #47
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It's fun to read and speculate along with everyone here...but no one here really knows what's going on behind the scenes...factor in that everyone wants to appear smart and in the know and you have a lot of bullsh* - er - speculation going on.

But - hey - what the heck - like I said, it is fun to read.

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Old 2 January 2020, 07:43 AM   #48
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The greys perform two functions. They move slow or dead stock and they create the value proposition of the brand. High prices on secondary market is good for brand image.

The opposite is true also. Take Jomashop for instance where you can buy BNIB Omegas and other brands 25-30% cheaper than what they sell for in the factory boutiques. That’s a negative value proposition.

My Omega boutique will not discount so watches sit there unsold and the store is mostly void of customers.

We don’t like the greys now because they hijacked the lion share of supply and jacked they prices through the roof. Like most market cycles that swing to extremes both ways they tend to settle in the middle eventually.


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Old 2 January 2020, 07:45 AM   #49
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They're available. It's the new, "if you have to ask, you cant afford" available
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Old 2 January 2020, 07:48 AM   #50
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For the foreseeable future I’m afraid this is the new normal
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Old 2 January 2020, 07:48 AM   #51
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It's fun to read and speculate along with everyone here...but no one here really knows what's going on behind the scenes...factor in that everyone wants to appear smart and in the know and you have a lot of bullsh* - er - speculation going on.

But - hey - what the heck - like I said, it is fun to read.

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I just come here for entertainment.

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Old 2 January 2020, 07:52 AM   #52
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I think this is the new norm, as well. Unless something dramatic changes from a demand or supply perspective, which will take time.


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Old 2 January 2020, 08:09 AM   #53
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Old 2 January 2020, 09:21 AM   #54
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It will take some time before things go back to normal. I think they eventually will.
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Old 5 January 2020, 06:47 PM   #55
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The greys perform two functions. They move slow or dead stock and they create the value proposition of the brand. High prices on secondary market is good for brand image.
We don’t like the greys now because they hijacked the lion share of supply and jacked they prices through the roof. Like most market cycles that swing to extremes both ways they tend to settle in the middle eventually.
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1. Well, the Greys I know ...they would not buy any slow or dead stock
This is the job of the close-out guys.
2. About getting the lion’s share ...not so ...the authorized dealers are into
the black market sales of Rolex goods big time - recently I bought for 19.300 euro
a steel blue dial sky Dweller ...retail was 13,600 euro (more now)
So you see...the ADs are selling on their own the hot Rolex goods..no need for a Grey
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Old 5 January 2020, 07:27 PM   #56
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Rolex is revamping their supply chain to have a significant focus on tracking watches and identifying those ADs consistently selling to gray dealers. There are major changes coming in the next 12-24 months. This won't stop an individual buying a watch or two from ADs and reselling it, but it will definitely end the direct pipeline some ADs have with gray dealers.

Many have said that Rolex does not care about grays buying up watches, but they actually do and are finally about to do something about it. RIP to the sketch ADs
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Old 5 January 2020, 09:04 PM   #57
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Rolex is identifying those ADs consistently selling to gray dealers. There are major changes coming in the next 12-24 months, it will definitely end the direct pipeline some ADs have with gray dealers.
Many have said that Rolex does not care about grays buying up watches, but they actually do and are finally about to do something about it. RIP to the sketch ADs
Rolex wants to kiss the Greys bye bye...I agree

But trust me ...many Grays can not get watches like they used to
not because Rolex is doing something about it..now the ADs are selling
all of the hot goods they get from Rolex ...on their own !
No need anymore for Grays
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Old 5 January 2020, 09:53 PM   #58
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All depends on demand, when and if that falls back to pre-16 levels then so will their availability in windows. I do think there has probably been a bit of a systemic demand shift, largely due to social media, which is basically like TRF enabling but for non-WIS, and so demand I suspect will stay higher than mean levels before the hype even if we have a downturn, because there is a great difference between what people can afford and what they want to afford, we see that here all the time, as enabling and being part of this "cult" makes you buy more watches than you would have ever thought, and now thru SM that has spread to lots of other general luxury buyers rather than just luxury watch buyers.
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Old 5 January 2020, 10:22 PM   #59
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I don't expect to find a steel professional model in a window or a display case ever again at an AD. These days are gone.

I'm not seeing long term demand diminishing. There will be bumps on the road and history shows Rolex are not impervious to a global economic crisis. But overall ever increasing demand for luxury goods worldwide is here to stay, unless something cataclysmic happens.
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Old 5 January 2020, 10:51 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timewarped80 View Post
Over the past 2 years I’ve been to boutiques in New York, Paris, Bermuda, Mexico, Charleston, Boston, etc. All display cases are literally half empty with only Datejusts and Cellini’s. Nothing new to any WIS, but just thought I’d vent. It is so bizarre being used to seeing models so readily available in past years! Is this simply the way it’s going to be?? It’s embarrassing. Every store literally sucks to visit.

They are readily available !


Through the back door in large quantities with a few low volume pieces mixed in.

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