An interesting convo at the AD yesterday..

[Theoffice]

Haha what a dumb AD comment

[Jacentito]

one thing being overlooked is the increase in the sightings of UFOs. Never mind the International buyers of Rolex, perhaps its an intergalactic demand causing the shortage!

[77T]

Rolex has failed miserably in the “communicating with customers” department - at least from the perspective of the ADs and the customers.

Maybe they don’t feel it is necessary. I do believe HQ should take a more proactive, direct communications path to the customer about the supply/demand issues.

The OP’s AD gets official Rolex communications in writing and verbally via the in-country distributor’s channel rep. Here in the US, those channel reps are deployed by geographic areas. Their job is multifaceted and communication is just one of those facets.

So ADs get slanted/filtered views/opinions in addition to written directives. And then they read drivel on watch websites.

I’ve heard the story about shifting production to precious metal as well as to backlogs of custom orders. But there is always some little twist here or there - like the childish telephone game...



One thing is certain - net margin rises as demand shifts to TT and PM models that have larger margins. In business that is a side benefit while pent-up SS demand mounts.

I’m not saying that was the chief motive - I don’t know any better than the next person - but it does build a case for never returning to the SS production levels of the past.


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[Singslinger]

Lots of speculation but truth is, no one except Rolex knows for sure.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by tahitianmoon

I was at the local Rolex AD yesterday with a friend who is a very good client of the store. The manager came out to speak with us and we talked about watches, styles, store sales, and then, the supply issue. I asked why the shortage and when did he see it ending potentially. He stated that the reason for the shortage was that 2 years earlier Rolex changed the manufacturing plant from steel production to precious metal to satisfy the Middle East market demand. He also said that Rolex should be back on line with steel production in 14 months or so and we would see steel models in AD's again. I thought that was interesting. I don't know if it's true but that was our discussion. Thoughts?

As a Chicagoan of Middle Eastern descent, I can advise you to find an AD who doesn't craft stories to keep your hopes up to wait for a watch that'll never come.

The income/wealth disparity in the Middle East rivals most places in the world; and while rich Muslims actually do wear precious metals, regardless of what their faith tells them (they certainly don't have issues consuming alcohol in private), there simply isn't enough of them to cause Rolex to (lmfao) change its operations to satisfy demand in the Middle East.

If this was remotely true, one would wonder why there are hundreds of thousands of precious metal watches aging in ADs' showcases- including in the Middle East.

By the way, wealthy Arabs vacation in large metropolises- and they do so often. New York, Paris, Las Vegas, London. All those cities are ADs filled with precious metal watches. Your salesman is taking you for a ride, and I'm not sure it's one that'll take you where you want to go.

Humor me- who was it? James & Sons? Razny's? Tourneau? CD Peacock? PM me if you'd like.

[garyk]

So funny to see and hear so much speculation. I understand that Rolex continues to make the same amount of watches they have capacity for with no change or additional production. They have closed over 440 ADs in 2019 and plan to close another 27 in 2020 which may have a slight effect on easing supply shortages. But for Rolex the manufacturer, nothing much changes.

[TswaneNguni]

Yes,Rolex changed the trust instructions ....

AD is talking nonsense .

[grimps]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Most people in the Middle East are Muslim and they are not allowed to wear gold for religious reasons. I know this because I export cars there. Thats why you see many platinum DD and Daytonas with hindu arab numerals. When I go to Dubai I see many SS Rolex, Rm, carbon and titanium Aps in the wild.

This is true for Muslim men although Women can wear it.
I live in Dubai and you often see the Muslim guy's wearing white gold.
Steel Pateks and APs seem more popular here though.

My AD said something similar last year about Rolex wanting to push more PM watches , the reason for this is they make much more profit with more or less the same manufacturing cost

[Verdi]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Most people in the Middle East are Muslim and they are not allowed to wear gold for religious reasons. I know this because I export cars there. Thats why you see many platinum DD and Daytonas with hindu arab numerals. When I go to Dubai I see many SS Rolex, Rm, carbon and titanium Aps in the wild.

They sell a lot of gold watches and gold in general, in fact.
Middle east is a hub for gold and gems trade.

Since you mentioned Dubai....they trade about 60-70 billion USD worth of gold and diamonds early.

[mattmonay]

More FUD from my local AD- The BLRO shortage is due to Rolex having only 2 qualified people who are able to produce the bezels...

[Rashid.bk]

Lol, cool story, I believe it’s total bs though. Beyond the fact that I seriously doubt a demand for gold came from the middle east, the time line is off. And also that same timeline was quoted two years ago now.

There is no shortage people. ADs are doing better than ever selling more stock than ever and at full retail for anything stainless. Business is good. In the past, stock would sit, today it’s basically presold, it never even makes it to the case.
How the hell are there about twenty BLROs for sale on TRF alone if there isn’t any stock....
The shortage now is in your wallet, if you are a vip spending enough money at your dealer, then the watch is there just waiting for your purchase or refusal. Another option is a genuine long standing pre-flipper/IG/investors era relationship with your AD. If you’re just joe blow, beg to get on a “list”.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by mattmonay

More FUD from my local AD- The BLRO shortage is due to Rolex having only 2 qualified people who are able to produce the bezels...

Oh yeah!!!!
Forgot about that gem.

[Verdi]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Lol, cool story, I believe it’s total bs though.

There is no shortage people. ADs are doing better than ever selling more stock than ever and at full retail for anything stainless. Business is good. In the past, stock would sit, today it’s basically presold, it never even makes it to the case.
How the hell are there about twenty BLROs for sale on TRF alone if there isn’t any stock....

There is a shortage.
It started with sports models and now you see less and less steel models. I was in the AD (exclusive Rolex, very big one) the other day and all they had in steel it was 3 DJs and one OP date.

The sale rep said it is actually embarrassing because there is nothing to sell.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

As a Chicagoan of Middle Eastern descent, I can advise you to find an AD who doesn't craft stories to keep your hopes up to wait for a watch that'll never come.

The income/wealth disparity in the Middle East rivals most places in the world; and while rich Muslims actually do wear precious metals, regardless of what their faith tells them (they certainly don't have issues consuming alcohol in private), there simply isn't enough of them to cause Rolex to (lmfao) change its operations to satisfy demand in the Middle East.

If this was remotely true, one would wonder why there are hundreds of thousands of precious metal watches aging in ADs' showcases- including in the Middle East.

By the way, wealthy Arabs vacation in large metropolises- and they do so often. New York, Paris, Las Vegas, London. All those cities are ADs filled with precious metal watches. Your salesman is taking you for a ride, and I'm not sure it's one that'll take you where you want to go.

Humor me- who was it? James & Sons? Razny's? Tourneau? CD Peacock? PM me if you'd like.

This

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by Verdi

There is a shortage.

No there is not. How could these businesses stay open if they aren’t selling anything. We’ve seen two of the largest Rolex ADs open up giant stores recently.
There might be more demand, but Rolex is selling more watches than ever. My AD is very happy.
Sales person sob stories aren’t believable, are they working as volunteers.
Walk into a familiar AD you know and tell them you have two children graduating college and want to gift them DJs. Then say I also want a Pearlmaster diamond dial for my wife’s bday, while I’m at it throw in a matching DD for me......poof, a Daytona or BLNR will materialize from the back like a decloaking Klingon bird of prey.

[ks653]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

No there is not. How could these businesses stay open if they aren’t selling anything. We’ve seen two of the largest Rolex ADs open up giant stores recently.

There might be more demand, but Rolex is selling more watches than ever. My AD is very happy.

Sales person sob stories aren’t believable, are they working as volunteers.

Walk into a familiar AD you know and tell them you have two children graduating college and want to gift them DJs. Then say I also want a Pearlmaster diamond dial for my wife’s bday, while I’m at it throw in a matching DD for me......poof, a Daytona or BLNR will materialize from the back like a decloaking Klingon bird of prey.

This

[glamorama]

Do not believe this one bit for many reasons. Unless Israel is gobbling up all PM I highly doubt what is a majority of muslin countries all the sudden would turn to PM (muslims not supposed to wear gold jewellery).

If anything it has been increased demand in Asia and specifically China. The Chinese has been smurfing Rolexes globally last few years.

If he had said something with new movement production limits I might have believed it.

[Verdi]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

No there is not. How could these businesses stay open if they aren’t selling anything. We’ve seen two of the largest Rolex ADs open up giant stores recently.
There might be more demand, but Rolex is selling more watches than ever. My AD is very happy.
Sales person sob stories aren’t believable, are they working as volunteers.
Walk into a familiar AD you know and tell them you have two children graduating college and want to gift them DJs. Then say I also want a Pearlmaster diamond dial for my wife’s bday, while I’m at it throw in a matching DD for me......poof, a Daytona or BLNR will materialize from the back like a decloaking Klingon bird of prey.

Yes and no.

Some ADs closed. Others managed/manage to keep going and make great profits because shortage creates higher demand and, yes, people buy whatever is available.

So, imo, yes, there is a shortage. Does Rolex benefit!? Sure, it is actually good for their business.
Do I benefit? No, I dont.
Do all ADs benefit? No, they dont!

Does Rolex create this shortage on purpose?!
Well.........that is another story!

[scheneider]

Originally Posted by 42itus

Interesting. So much speculation. But Im going to go with the the explosion in demand and the hoarding by the grays. If the grey makrket controls the inventory they can control the price.


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This so true


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[Yess]

Originally Posted by Singslinger

Lots of speculation but truth is, no one except Rolex knows for sure.

I don't think Rolex knows - or are in the very least - unable make any significant (immediate) changes.

[beshannon]

Yet another AD that should lose their contract with Rolex.

[NoVaSubowner]

Originally Posted by MTdweller

This checks with what my AD has said. They are sold before they even arrive and business is good.

Right. All this endless speculation on supply to AD’s and dealer/manufacturer conspiracy to drive up demand, has turned this forum into “ The Rolex supply/demand forum.

Endless written self gratification.

Here’s the reality. No one really knows.

What we should guess as educated adults that there are more people with money than ever. Money is used to buy luxury items. Those items become increasingly in demand as a result.

Rolex. Hermès bags. You name it. Sought after aspirational items become scarce in times of prosperity. More buyers than supply. Simple as that.




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[therealcbar]

Originally Posted by djgallo

AD‘s are so in the dark. They don‘t even know what watches they will be receiving in their next shipment....and they can elaborate on Rolex manufacturing stratagem/tactics....

This. I also find it hard to believe that they somehow have insight into manufacturing / corporate strategy when they don't even know what's coming for them to display next week.

[zhqiang]

I don't care because I have had the most popular SS Rolex sport watches except GMT II LN. I don't think I have the chance to get something like BLNR, BLRO etc., if I would not like to pay more than MSRP.

[MCOSUB]

Originally Posted by djgallo

AD‘s are so in the dark. They don‘t even know what watches they will be receiving in their next shipment....and they can elaborate on Rolex manufacturing stratagem/tactics....

Wouldnt it be safe to say that if ADs are in the dark, they are no more in the dark than the rest of us?

Other than those that are actually employed at Rolex, who is actually in the know when it comes to distribution, new models, warranty changes, etc?

[ap1]

No way

[HORNBLOWER]

Rolex have cracked element 115, they're putting all their resources into this. Well that's what the Roswell A.D told me.....

[schoolboy]

Originally Posted by tahitianmoon

I know! I wonder if that would pop the bubble

Hopefully

And if it does, I feel like we will see a lot of preowned watches for sale, by all the people that bought as an investment

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by NoVaSubowner

Right. All this endless speculation on supply to AD’s and dealer/manufacturer conspiracy to drive up demand, has turned this forum into “ The Rolex supply/demand forum.

Endless written self gratification.

Here’s the reality. No one really knows.

What we should guess as educated adults that there are more people with money than ever. Money is used to buy luxury items. Those items become increasingly in demand as a result.

Rolex. Hermès bags. You name it. Sought after aspirational items become scarce in times of prosperity. More buyers than supply. Simple as that.




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I agree.

Judging by the fact that all the hot references sitting in gray dealers come from some AD's, who make their profit the moment they sell them to the gray men, I am inclined to NOT buy into any sob stories narrated by the AD sales staff.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Verdi

Yes and no.

Some ADs closed. Others managed/manage to keep going and make great profits because shortage creates higher demand and, yes, people buy whatever is available.

So, imo, yes, there is a shortage. Does Rolex benefit!? Sure, it is actually good for their business.
Do I benefit? No, I dont.
Do all ADs benefit? No, they dont!

Does Rolex create this shortage on purpose?!
Well.........that is another story!

As long as the watches are still widely available on the open market to anyone who is willing to pay the asking price, then there is no shortage. Period.

The Rolex game these days is about affordability, not about availability.

For us to say there is a shortage on Rolex is akin to me declaring there is a shortage on the Rolls Royce Phantom simply because I can't afford one.