Current state of affairs from a prominent NY AD.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by superpop

Changes like this do not happen overnight, it takes time. Right now a lot of people in the USA are still hanging on. Give it another 60 days and things will get interesting. Right now most are covered by frozen house payments and other relief. Banks will go from friend to foe once the government isnt looking. All the over leveraged dummies that follow the adage of "I don't pay off anything, I want my money working for me" will be the first to go. As Buffett would say, we will see who is wearing swim trunks when the tide goes out. A lot of these youtube financial gurus who think over leveraging and flipping stuff is a source of sustainable income are going to get their bells rung.

^^

This is dead on.

The “I have my money work for me crowd” or translation, I have no liquidity is about a month away from getting their asses handed to them.


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[LJubel328]

One more thing, you are speaking with an AD. What did you think they'd tell you?

"Yes, our business is struggling right now. Would you like to buy this ss daytona?"

It is delusional to think that of all the businesses hurting from this pandemic that ADs are thriving.

[STLrolexfan]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

One more thing, you are speaking with an AD. What did you think they'd tell you?

"Yes, our business is struggling right now. Would you like to buy this ss daytona?"

It is delusional to think that of all the businesses hurting from this pandemic that ADs are thriving.

This. I’ve talked to a bunch watch dealers across the country in the last few weeks. they express confidence while at the same time are much more eager to build customer relationships than they were a few months ago. I don’t think anyone knows for certain what will happen in six months but they are nervous.


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[maveric]

Maybe Rolex is different, but its competitors don't sound optimistic.

[Etschell]

The Richemont report was very telling.

The Swiss watch market is going through a very tough time that wont end soon. Some projections are showing it is worse than the Quartz crisis. Many brands will go bust. Some estimates are up to 25 percent of Swiss brands.

The exports of Swiss watches under 3k are way way down. Rolex, Patek and AP prices have fallen from their 2019 highs.

Now will a SS BLRO or SS Daytona remain inflated? Yes. Part of this has to due with the price increase thar ocurred just 4.5 short months ago. Part of it has to due with the fact that these three waches are the most sought after. But the overall price increase saved Rolex prices from further drops.

Even a 2019 SS jubilee BLNR is now closing in on retail. Wait until there is more stock.

If I were an AD I would be deeply concerned. Rent is a killer and say what you will about bundling but good luck getting people to do it when you do not have that hot watch in the safe. An AD is a businessman or businesswoman. Showing weakness is a terrible play to customers.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Etschell

The Richemont report was very telling.

The Swiss watch market is going through a very tough time that wont end soon. Some projections are showing it is worse than the Quartz crisis. Many brands will go bust. Some estimates are up to 25 percent of Swiss brands.

The exports of Swiss watches under 3k are way way down. Rolex, Patek and AP prices have fallen from their 2019 highs.

Now will a SS BLRO or SS Daytona remain inflated? Yes. Part of this has to due with the price increase thar ocurred just 4.5 short months ago. Part of it has to due with the fact that these three waches are the most sought after. But the overall price increase saved Rolex prices from further drops.

Even a 2019 SS jubilee BLNR is now closing in on retail. Wait until there is more stock.

If I were an AD I would be deeply concerned. Rent is a killer and say what you will about bundling but good luck getting people to do it when you do not have that hot watch in the safe. An AD is a businessman or businesswoman. Showing weakness is a terrible play to customers.

I wouldn't count on there being more stock. Factory shut for 2 months means about 160K less watches produced this year from what I've read.

Maybe more supply to certain areas if demand destruction is bad enough in the Asian countries after lock downs. I have to think that demand has been hit harder in certain countries than others.

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I wouldn't count on there being more stock. Factory shut for 2 months means about 160K less watches produced this year from what I've read.

Maybe more supply to certain areas if demand destruction is bad enough in the Asian countries after lock downs. I have to think that demand has been hit harder in certain countries than others.

Have u been to any Asian countries in the last 6-10 years? Asia was the biggest market for luxury brands in the world before this pandemic n will bounce back the fastest.

https://www.businessinsider.com/weal...n-china-2020-4

Biz will be bad in general, but certain strong brands, incl Rolex won't be hurt as much. Chanel and Louis Vuitton have increased their prices, others will follow suit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fash...-prices-2020-5

I have witnessed 1977 n 2008 crises, the rich gets richer no matter what n they r the one who has money to spend. Middle class is different story.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Etschell

The Richemont report was very telling.

The Swiss watch market is going through a very tough time that wont end soon. Some projections are showing it is worse than the Quartz crisis. Many brands will go bust. Some estimates are up to 25 percent of Swiss brands.

The exports of Swiss watches under 3k are way way down. Rolex, Patek and AP prices have fallen from their 2019 highs.

Now will a SS BLRO or SS Daytona remain inflated? Yes. Part of this has to due with the price increase thar ocurred just 4.5 short months ago. Part of it has to due with the fact that these three waches are the most sought after. But the overall price increase saved Rolex prices from further drops.

Even a 2019 SS jubilee BLNR is now closing in on retail. Wait until there is more stock.

If I were an AD I would be deeply concerned. Rent is a killer and say what you will about bundling but good luck getting people to do it when you do not have that hot watch in the safe. An AD is a businessman or businesswoman. Showing weakness is a terrible play to customers.

I read that too and thought it was quite interesting and telling.

Nice to see you posting here my friend

[-Ally-]

It must be that some of the 36M unemployed Americans are looking to spend their final salary payments on Rolex.

[Xenon]

This will essentially be a repeat of 2008 and maybe worse so picture bankruptcies, foreclosures, zombie houses, people on unemployment insurance for 3-4 years, low GDP, and slow economic recovery.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Xenon

This will essentially be a repeat of 2008 and maybe worse so picture bankruptcies, foreclosures, zombie houses, people on unemployment insurance for 3-4 years, low GDP, and slow economic recovery.

The difference now is that the Gov'ts of the developed economies started spraying money around much sooner that they did in 2008, the unemployed in this recession are mostly from lower income jobs, and all the people getting the gov't handouts are already wealthy and are being given great gobs of cash which will require much creative thinking to spend. Maybe Rolex doesn't benefit as much, but PP and other high end manufacturers will.
Also different is that the watch makers had to interrupt their production, too, creating scarcity.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The difference now is that the Gov'ts of the developed economies started spraying money around much sooner that they did in 2008, the unemployed in this recession are mostly from lower income jobs, and all the people getting the gov't handouts are already wealthy and are being given great gobs of cash which will require much creative thinking to spend. Maybe Rolex doesn't benefit as much, but PP and other high end manufacturers will.
Also different is that the watch makers had to interrupt their production, too, creating scarcity.

This ppl with low wage jobs work for ppl with high paid jobs and when the entrepreneurs struggle to keep viable staff, how are they gonna continue buying PM Rolexes?

Waiters do not buy Rolexes, but Restaurant owners love to do, so if your restaurants are closed for 2 months, and you pay rent, and you pay half salary of your employees, when you open up - u save your business, or you go for another Platona?

[rtalk]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

This ppl with low wage jobs work for ppl with high paid jobs and when the entrepreneurs struggle to keep viable staff, how are they gonna continue buying PM Rolexes?

Waiters do not buy Rolexes, but Restaurant owners love to do, so if your restaurants are closed for 2 months, and you pay rent, and you pay half salary of your employees, when you open up - u save your business, or you go for another Platona?

i think few and far restaurant owners buy platona's or Rolex in general - it is a tough business and many were scrapping by in the first place prior to covid.

[ArtNouveau]

I don’t think we’ll really know how hard or not Rolex sales will be affected until several months from now, any predictions now are mere guesses. Going only on US facts, RolexUSA’s headquarters and warehouse in New York City have been closed for two months now and have not been supplying US dealers. The Rolex factory has now been closed almost as long so no new shipments from them to RolexUSA.
A few dealers have managed to stay “open” by remotely keeping in touch with their clients and just in the last couple of weeks some are now opening their doors. The most important thing to remember is they’re only working from the inventory they had on hand when shipments stopped. Sure a few of them “opened the vaults” but high volume dealers like mine have only scraps right now.
When shipments return and they start calling their preferred clients surely some of them will take a pass but the idea that ALL of them will say no is absurd. High demand pieces going straight to the case for first come/first serve is wishful thinking I believe. Reevaluate by Christmas to see if their sales really plummet.

[schoolboy]

While I still have a job, and family and I are healthy, this covid crap has taught me to appreciate other things in life.

I asked to be put on a list for a watch I wanted a few times in the past.

I honestly think I fell for the hype.

After realizing how many people have lost lives and jobs and probably homes due to corona, I am very very extra grateful for what I have.

I don’t think I am ever going to beg an AD to take my money ever again.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

While I still have a job, and family and I are healthy, this covid crap has taught me to appreciate other things in life.

I asked to be put on a list for a watch I wanted a few times in the past.

I honestly think I fell for the hype.

After realizing how many people have lost lives and jobs and probably homes due to corona, I am very very extra grateful for what I have.

I don’t think I am ever going to beg an AD to take my money ever again.

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

You keep up the good fight my friend. Everything else is trivial. May your watches and this forum be a happy escape.

[Cossak]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

Well said, hope you get well soon Peter I enjoy your posts!

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Cossak

Well said, hope you get well soon Peter I enjoy your posts!

X2

Wishing you all the best Peter. Your wisdom and Rolex knowledge keeps us all on a better path.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

All the best in your treatment sir!

[madmax21]

padi56...I'm sorry to hear of your illness I wish you nothing but the best stay well and healthy my friend Godspeed

[madmax21]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

While I still have a job, and family and I are healthy, this covid crap has taught me to appreciate other things in life.

I asked to be put on a list for a watch I wanted a few times in the past.

I honestly think I fell for the hype.

After realizing how many people have lost lives and jobs and probably homes due to corona, I am very very extra grateful for what I have.

I don’t think I am ever going to beg an AD to take my money ever again.

I completely agree with you friend don't minimize this whole thing it's serious a cousin of mine got it and he was in the hospital for 3 weeks I'm in Canada where we have government Healthcare thank God and even if I lose my job I'll still have Healthcare nonetheless it's not a time to buy luxury goods the prices will fall in my opinion for sure

[schoolboy]

Originally Posted by madmax21

I completely agree with you friend don't minimize this whole thing it's serious a cousin of mine got it and he was in the hospital for 3 weeks I'm in Canada where we have government Healthcare thank God and even if I lose my job I'll still have Healthcare nonetheless it's not a time to buy luxury goods the prices will fall in my opinion for sure

One of my uncles died. I wasn’t very close to him, but still RIP

It’s crazy how people are dying across the globe, and then I check in on the forum and many are still obsessed with a scratch or two, and the hyped up watches

I’m at the point where all I want is to enjoy what I have, and try to survive this crap with my loved ones


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[madmax21]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

One of my uncles died. I wasn’t very close to him, but still RIP

It’s crazy how people are dying across the globe, and then I check in on the forum and many are still obsessed with a scratch or two, and the hyped up watches

I’m at the point where all I want is to enjoy what I have, and try to survive this crap with my loved ones


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I'm very sorry to hear of your uncle passing I hope you and your family stay safe Godspeed

[subdateII]

Personally, I have more questions than answers. Will there be the same level, less or more demand for Rolex watches? What about supply? Will Rolex sustain it's dealer network who is suffering big time or abandon it?

No one knows...

[rtalk]

I check online regularly looking for deals, and for SS Rolex - I have been surprised. The prices are still damn resilient. If a global pandemic with record unemployment hasn't taken a material hit to these watches, then honestly --- I really don't know what will.

[gtnator]

Banks, travel, leisure, retail, autos, manufacturing, oil,...all dismal prospects. Other than that everything is great! Lol, this thread surely is “an AD’s perspective”.


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[kieselguhr]

Different people have different circumstances, perspectives, and outlooks. Arguing about this is pointless and merely leads to financial or (worse) political discussions which quite honestly has nothing to do with Rolex or horology.

[subtona]

Some concerns I see living in a big city.

Loss of jobs and closed businesses for extended periods are compounding Loss of tax revenues.

Business realizing they can do without office space (work from home model has received a huge leg up with the employees pitching in and giving it their best effort) will lead to further losses as commercial space is vacated and further losses of jobs as companies streamline out of necessity.

>25% of Restaurants are not expected to reopen. The restaurants that do reopen will be dealing with reluctance of customers to sit next to strangers as well as the fact that many people have been forced to learn how to cook and as a result found that they quite like home cooking.

Bars will suffer and many friends have shared that they have been having cocktails with friends over web based chat rooms, often from geographically remote places.

It looks to me like the compounding effects of the shut down are going to have a significant and protracted impact on the overall economic health.

All said this is certainly not a criticism of the choices, I don’t have an answer.
personally I do have elderly parents who I am very concerned for, subjectively their well being is my #1 priority.


As far as the watch market, prices will drop.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by subtona

Some concerns I see living in a big city.


>25% of Restaurants are not expected to reopen. The restaurants that do reopen will be dealing with reluctance of customers to sit next to strangers as well as the fact that many people have been forced to learn how to cook and as a result found that they quite like home cooking.

Bars will suffer and many friends have shared that they have been having cocktails with friends over web based chat rooms, often from geographically remote places.



As far as the watch market, prices will drop.

Again, it is just an impression, but for bars and restaurants maybe not so bad. I was walking in Lausanne today, first day with great weather in a week, Saturday, but you had massive queues for the restaurants. Yes, they have restricted capacities, but people were really motivated. Also Shisha bars, and all sorts of places with terraces were totally full. Talked to the local hairdresser - full for weeks, sneaked me after working hours.

Also, the youth - under 25 - they could not care less about measures, and in general I see no fear of COVID - whatever is opened, they go check it.

Now, these are not luxury items, I think - Luxury, travel, cars, property market will be touched badly, but bars and restaurants, they may bounce back.