what's your take on the current grey market prices

[Singslinger]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why does this bother you? Do you plan to sell? If so when?

My take is that if I want to buy a watch I buy it and wear it.

Yes I agree.

If you really desire something and you can afford the asking price, then go for it. If you're not comfortable with the price, then walk away.

For me it's as simple as that.

As for the grey market, I agree that prices are absurdly high - but the same applies to almost any hard-to-get luxury good from women's handbags to fancy cars.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why does this bother you? Do you plan to sell? If so when?

My take is that if I want to buy a watch I buy it and wear it.

I too am confused.

[KrazyKorean]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why does this bother you? Do you plan to sell? If so when?

My take is that if I want to buy a watch I buy it and wear it.

^^THIS

If you want the watch then buy it and wear it. Why worry about the value. Just like when you buy a new car, when you drive off the lot its already lost value.

Just enjoy your watch

[ltmgeller]

Only time will tell

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why does this bother you? Do you plan to sell? If so when?

My take is that if I want to buy a watch I buy it and wear it.

I agree 100%. When you buy something, if you find yourself extremely concerned about the resale value of the said item, this can really harm that whole enjoyment thing.

[Yellow5]

All collectibles valuations are very high right now. I see a retrace on the really desirable models to retail + 25% over the course of the next two years, most of which will occur in the summer of 2022. The driver of the change will be diminished demand for collectibles as a whole. The lynchpin of the predicted downturn is a series of small upticks in the fed rate, the first of which will occur later this year. It is a rather specific scenario, but that’s my current best guess. Call me crazy.

[mikebike]

Originally Posted by Yellow5

All collectibles valuations are very high right now. I see a retrace on the really desirable models to retail + 25% over the course of the next two years, most of which will occur in the summer of 2022. The driver of the change will be diminished demand for collectibles as a whole. The lynchpin of the predicted downturn is a series of small upticks in the fed rate, the first of which will occur later this year. It is a rather specific scenario, but that’s my current best guess. Call me crazy.

^ This!! Completely agree. This will all come crashing down eventually. I know people will get defensive and disagree, but that’s exactly the hallmark of a bubble peak where everybody thinks we keep going up and contrarian views are few and made being fun of. I’m fairly confident there will be a time in the not so distant future when nobody will want a Rolex (and definitely not 50-100% over retail) when their retirement savings, meme stocks, and crypto are melting away.

[SS Oyster]

Ask us. We’ll tell you with certainty. Trust us


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[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by LirimP

I would like to purchase another Rolex from a gray market but worried that the prices will sink any thoughts what the future will hold?

I guess they’ll go up

[chocopeluche]

Inflation


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[Patton250]

The economy is going to crash pretty hard very soon. I imagine Rolex and Patek prices will crash with it. You should probably hold out for a little while because it won’t be long now.

On a sidenote I would really like to meet the man or woman that would actually pay $38,000 for a $14,000 Daytona. I would especially like to meet the person that would spend $100,000 on a $30,000 Nautilis. I realize there are people in higher income brackets that this type of money is just pocket change but most people don’t get that wealthy by being this irresponsible. In fact the handful of extremely wealthy people I know would never spend their money in this fashion. I’ve asked them. The only thing I can figure it is it’s young trust fund babies spending their parents money. At the end of the day this is the only thing that really makes sense.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by Patton250

The economy is going to crash pretty hard very soon. I imagine Rolex and Patek prices will crash with it. You should probably hold out for a little while because it won’t be long now.

On a sidenote I would really like to meet the man or woman that would actually pay $38,000 for a $14,000 Daytona. I would especially like to meet the person that would spend $100,000 on a $30,000 Nautilis. I realize there are people in higher income brackets that this type of money is just pocket change but most people don’t get that wealthy by being this irresponsible. In fact the handful of extremely wealthy people I know would never spend their money in this fashion. I’ve asked them. The only thing I can figure it is it’s young trust fund babies spending their parents money. At the end of the day this is the only thing that really makes sense.

100% sensible advice. I also know some fairly well off people who collect watches, the consensus of their opinions is buying over retail is a fools game and none of them do it..........Period.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

100% sensible advice. I also know some fairly well off people who collect watches, the consensus of their opinions is buying over retail is a fools game and none of them do it..........Period.

Do any collect vintage??? There is no retail for thee real players in the game....

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Do any collect vintage??? There is no retail for thee real players in the game....

They were not vintage when they originally bought them they were the current version, freely available in shop windows to buy, the displays were always well stocked back then.

I remember up until only recently maybe 2016-17 seeing most of the SS pro models in the AD's window BLNR, GMT's, Subs, Exp 2's and Daytona TT's.

Strange times in watch collecting but I simply could not buy from a Grey.

[DBlue2018]

Originally Posted by Patton250

The economy is going to crash pretty hard very soon. I imagine Rolex and Patek prices will crash with it. You should probably hold out for a little while because it won’t be long now.

On a sidenote I would really like to meet the man or woman that would actually pay $38,000 for a $14,000 Daytona. I would especially like to meet the person that would spend $100,000 on a $30,000 Nautilis. I realize there are people in higher income brackets that this type of money is just pocket change but most people don’t get that wealthy by being this irresponsible. In fact the handful of extremely wealthy people I know would never spend their money in this fashion. I’ve asked them. The only thing I can figure it is it’s young trust fund babies spending their parents money. At the end of the day this is the only thing that really makes sense.

I’m one of those guys that paid 27k GBP for a daytona 116500Ln white

My take is this....

The current market value is what I paid. No more no less. That is what they sell for used so it’s what I paid.

Just like if you buy a used Ferrari or house etc

So if I want to sell it now it’s still worth 27k

If I bought a new car, new Hublot, new Cartier, new jewellery or new furniture for 27k it would be worth less than 27k when I come to sell

So either way 27k on a steel daytona doesn’t bother me in the slightest and it will probably go up in value because it’s the most in demand watch. If it doesn’t and it falls in value then I don’t really care. My Range Rover falls in value daily and so does my furniture and the holiday I’m on right now will never return me any money.

The RRP is an utter irrelevance

That’s my logic

👍

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by LirimP

I would like to purchase another Rolex from a gray market but worried that the prices will sink any thoughts what the future will hold?

I look at the problem a slightly different way, I don't think Grey prices will drop at all but the value of held stock and the currency you buy with will fluctuate massively soon.

The Dollar, GBP and Euro will all devalue soon if the Market experts are to be believed? The impact on some Greys who have bought at a certain currency and market value may become untenable, they could wait and sit it out or begin to sell in order to recoup their money to keep the doors open.

So between the two lies the probable truth.

My honest opinion: Avoid Grey Dealers they are another Tax preventing you getting what you want..

[1William]

Another thread about money vailed as a watch thread. Let's get to the point, buy the watch you want at the best price you can get and get on with the ownership experience.

[LA_LEC]

As has been pointed out quite often, if one is seeking a single watch then paying a premium is worth it just in time saved - IMHO.

Rather than wait 2 years (with no guarantee) for the possiblity of having the opportunity to ever purchase it.

YOLO - how much is 2 years wearing of your grail everyday worth to you rather than just dreaming about it?

[garyk]

In the past 40 years, I saw the current hard to get cycle begin with SS Daytona. Now it includes most SS Sports models and PM models as well. I hope it’s just some kind of trend that will change but it seems like Rolex is just in more demand than ever.

One trend I hope goes away, seriously stupid nicknames!

[DBlue2018]

Originally Posted by garyk

In the past 40 years, I saw the current hard to get cycle begin with SS Daytona. Now it includes most SS Sports models and PM models as well. I hope it’s just some kind of trend that will change but it seems like Rolex is just in more demand than ever.

One trend I hope goes away, seriously stupid nicknames!

Rolex won’t change it
They’ve got the recipe for success so if anything they will tighten production just like patek did with the nautilus to create even more demand
They know changing the formula could ruin the brand

I’d rather trust Rolex than a government!

[garyk]

Originally Posted by DBlue2018

Rolex won’t change it
They’ve got the recipe for success so if anything they will tighten production just like patek did with the nautilus to create even more demand
They know changing the formula could ruin the brand

I’d rather trust Rolex than a government!

Lol, I agree with your last statement.

[gerry100]

IMHO, paying “gray” is just assigning a
Value to your time’ at this point
I paid slightly over gray for a used exp2 from an AD because I’m 71 and too
Old for a long chase
So what if the value drops a few $k before I die

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by gerry100

IMHO, paying “gray” is just assigning a
Value to your time’ at this point
I paid slightly over gray for a used exp2 from an AD because I’m 71 and too
Old for a long chase
So what if the value drops a few $k before I die

Very good perspective on the issue.

[S.Explorer]

Originally Posted by gerry100

IMHO, paying “gray” is just assigning a
Value to your time’ at this point
I paid slightly over gray for a used exp2 from an AD because I’m 71 and too
Old for a long chase
So what if the value drops a few $k before I die

This is basically it.

Unless Rolex decides any watch is available to anyone on request or interest rates go up, market value => RRP (MSRP).

[JRell]

I would say high, to quite high.

[Maverick_1908]

Originally Posted by LirimP

I would like to purchase another Rolex from a gray market but worried that the prices will sink any thoughts what the future will hold?

They wont go sink for the next 10 years.

Buy now.


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[sathwik]

It’s a scam in which AD and grey dealers are hand in hand. The role of factory/Rolex hq is appalling because of their silence and inaction!

[Crazy Lugs]

Originally Posted by sathwik

It’s a scam in which AD and grey dealers are hand in hand. The role of factory/Rolex hq is appalling because of their silence and inaction!

Further to that, a large percentage of luxury watch sales are dealer-to-dealer, with the watch gaining "value" in each step along the way as each dealer tacks on their profit.

If you are a patient and sharp observer of gray market sales, you will notice watches being passed around like hot potatoes from gray dealer to gray dealer.

Still, I would argue $35K into a 116500 is a fairly safe place to stash your spare cash these days- more so than a savings account but less so than a Vanguard index fund.

[BlakeA]

Was wondering how long until a 124270 showed up on DavidSW. Only $1000 more than double retail. Tulip bulbs?
https://davidsw.com/shop/watch/rolex...-model-2021-4/

[dannyp]

This question is both incredibly easy and insanely complex. How to answer is easy, finding the right answer much less so.

Ask yourself these three things:

1.What’s driving prices at the moment?

2. Is that likely to change, and if so, how?

3. What is the likely impact of such change?